Changes in Agricultural Yields

1. Changes in Agricultural Yields without CO2 fertilization, Cline 2007

2. Changes in Agricultural Yields with CO2 fertilization, Cline 2007 improved water use efficiency under higher CO2

3. water intensity per kg of yield

4. changing diets FAOSTAT

5. changing diets per-capita water demand in China 250 -> 860 m3 between 1960 and 2000 China‘s population doubled during that period Liu et al 2008

6. changing diets Lannerstad 2009

7. land use change 1990-2007 FAOSTAT

8. land use change & land productivity change NPP – Net Primary Productivity Haberl et al 2007

9. increasing bioenergy demand ethanol and biodiesel production Conway & Waage 2010

10. bioenergy & land demand Sagar et al, 2007

11. bioenergy & water demand m3 water required per GJ from: sugar cane: 2516 maize: 2570 wheat: 4946 sorghum: 9812 rapeseed: 14201 jatropha: 19924 global average Gerben-Leenes, Hoekstra et al 2009 ethanol biodiesel 1liter of biofuel requires about the same amount of water as feeding one person for one day Sagar et al, 2007

12. bioenergy & water demand Jatropha cultivation - Fairless, 2007 „every land use decisions is a water use decisions“ (Comprehensive Assessment 2007)

13. % fraction of blue water in total agricultural water use Siebert et al 2009 Green and blue water in Agriculture

14. FAO 2007 Multi-functional systems – integrating climate mitigation and adaptation e.g. conservation agriculture • increased water productivity - adaptation to drier climate (and reduced pressure on other ecosystems) • enhanced carbon sequestration in soils – mitigation of climate change • reduced CO2 emissions (zero tillage saves 80kg/ha/yr compared to conventional tillage from reduced tractor fuel needs) • increased (agro-bio) diversity – more resilient systems • reduced erosion, nutrient and pesticide loads soil carbon sequestration potential

15. felling trees after 10 years Verchot 2007 Multi-functional systems e.g. agroforestry - rotational woodlands, Tanzania in multi-functional systems intercroping of food crops with leguminous trees (Acacia)

16. Critical hotspots: rainfed “drylands” Rockström et al 2009

17. Critical hotspots: rainfed “drylands” low yield / water productivity all crops Wisser et al 2009

18. Critical hotspots - hunger dry spells and droughts projected to increase with climate change

19. fertilizer gap in Africa FAO annual average N-P-K application 1997-1999

20. climate variability, agriculture, GDP link Zimbabwe Ethiopia Grey, 2004/2005 Burkina Faso

21. Other pressures Foreign Direct Investment („land grabbing“) also „water grabbing“ • e.g. by Chinese companies: • IKO: 10,000 ha rice in Cameroon • SUCOCOMA: 10,000 ha sugarcane in Madagaskar • Viscount Energy: sugarcane in Nigeria • Int. Water & Electric Corp: 100,000 ha corn in Tanzania • Heibei Company: 40,000 ha poultry etc in Uganda • Int. Water & Electric Corp 100,000 ha corn in Zimbabwe GTZ 2009

22. Enabling conditions / incentives financial incentives – payments for environmental services -> water implications of CDM -> integration of adaptation & mitigation

23. imports of virtual water in the MENA region Syria 4 Morocco 22 Lebanon 28 Algeria 79 Tunisia 97 Jordan 196 Libya 557 Yang et al 2007 net VW imports as % of renewable water resources however, there are concerns about national food security and local livelihoods when relying on virtual water imports and there is an employment problem if local agriculture is phased out

24. Regreening Sahel - a success story Geo 4 2007

25. Regreening Sahel - a success storyBurkina and Niger Zai pits Reij et al 2009

26. Regreening Sahel - a success storyBurkina and Niger Contour stone bunds Reij et al 2009

27. Regreening Sahel - a success storyBurkina and Niger Farmers-managed natural regeneration (FMNR) of trees Reij et al 2009