Understanding Insurrections

1. Understanding Insurrections

2. Social Structure • Societal cleavages along racial, ethnic, and religious lines are frequently among the root causes of insurgency • When one group enjoys disproportionate political/economic power relative to other groups insurgents tend to find opportunities to gain support if the relatively deprived group constitutes a majority of the population, the possibilities for gaining support are obviously greater • Disadvantaged minority insurgents face many challenges in gaining support (Kikuyu in Kenya, Kurds in Iraq and Iran, Eritreans in Ethiopia)

4. Economic Factors • While both stagnation and sudden downturns in the economy after a period of growth have been associated with insurgencies, violence may also occur during periods of prosperity • Numerous past and current cases provide ample evidence that economic inequities that create a perception of relative deprivation are a major cause of insurrectionary violence (El Salvador, Nicaragua, Nepal, Philippines, FLN in Algeria) • Many conflicts that seem on the surface to be based on communal rivalries turn out, upon closer inspection , to have significant economic dimensions (Northern Ireland, Lebanon, Kurds in Turkey/Iran/Iraq, blacks in southern Sudan, Muslim religious groups in Thailand) • While economic factors are important in many conflicts, they are inconsequential in others (Afgan insurrection against the Soviets)

5. Political Culture • Political culture refers to enduring attitudes or orientations of people towards aspects of politics, knowledge, feelings, judgments • Almond & Verba develop three concepts to characterize differences in political culture: • a. Parochial: Little or no awareness of the national political system (rural pop in Guatemala-1960) • These populations generally do not lend support to insurgent movement • b. Subject: Aware of political system but are not active in shaping it (slum dwellers in many countries) • Skillful propaganda and organizing by insurgents may change orientation

6. Political Culture • c. Participant: Generally educated and wish to engage actively in the political arena • Vulnerable to recruitment • Alienation of elites is a fundamental condition for revolution • Attitudes involving acceptance of authority, group trust, and tolerance of violence and foreigners can be important with respect to analyzing insurgencies • Where there is low tolerance to violence recruitment will suffer and sympathy will be low (The Red Brigades-Italy, Egyptians to Islamic militant violence)