Innovation and Culture:

Innovation and Culture: Implications for Transformation pkozemchak@darpa.mil

The Internet and Culture • “The Internet, and the whole electronic revolution, is merely a logical cultural consequence of the …legacy of open inquiry, self-criticism, anti-aristocratic thought, free expression and commerce, and their faith in disinterested reason and science, immune from the edicts of general, priest, and king.” • Victor Davis Hanson, John Heath pkozemchak@darpa.mil

Name This Culture • Advanced technology: the unsurpassed excellence of both weapons and armor • Superior discipline: the effective training and ready acceptance of command by soldiers themselves • Ingenuity in response: an intellectual tradition, unfettered and uncensored by either government or religion, which sought constant improvement in the face of military challenge • Creation of a broad, shared military observance among the majority of the population: the preference for citizen militias and civilian participation in military decision-making • Choice of decisive engagement: the preference to meet the enemy head on and to resolve the fighting as quickly and decisively as possible • Dominance of infantry: the notion that men on foot with muscular strength, not horsemen not even missile men, alone ultimately win wars • A systematic application of capital…to warmaking: the ability to collect taxes, impose tribute, and borrow moneys to field men and materiel for extensive periods of time • A moral opposition to militarism: the ubiquity of literary, religious, political, and artistic pressure groups who demand justification and explication of war, and so often question and occasionally even arrest the unwise applications of military force. There is a notion of dissent…that war is not the preferred course of events but the great tragedy of the human condition. pkozemchak@darpa.mil

Other Cultural Attributes of X • Classical armies…were usually better equipped both defensively and offensively than their non-Western adversaries. • Superior military technology itself was the inevitable product of a pragmatic society where the marketplace of ideas was largely unfettered by religious coercion and state suppression, where science was not a part of either the government or the gods. • Military discipline was the fruition of a society where constitutional government had inculcated the need to follow law, not a single individual, where the military mirrored the government, not vice versa, where the soldier and the civilian were originally one. • Once challenged with the unknown and unforeseen, X and Y usually matched and transformed any foreign innovation – technological, tactical, or strategic – they encountered. • Most …generals assumed that they would be put on trial once they returned home in defeat…warmakers are to be the object of artistic, literary, social, political, and religious criticism, has resulted in an institutionalized questioning of aims and procedures, an ongoing tradition of dissent that, ironically, often refined and ratified rather than simply hindered Western attack…Western military practice, with its age-old reliance on technology and discipline, has become an extension of free-market capitalism and constitutional government…The entire harvest – free debate and inquiry, unfettered challenge and response, separation between church and state – for good or evil has won out…The superiority of X and Y originally derived from a system where citizens owned their own property, sought rough equality with like kind, expressed their ideas free from coercion, assessed knowledge through reason without religious stricture, and planned collective action through representative consensus rather than individual fiat…There is not a single tenet of European military doctrine that did not originate with …X and Y…How strange that the creation of a free skeptical citizenry energizes rather than saps the army. pkozemchak@darpa.mil

Tocqueville’s Democracy in America:Chapter XXI - XXVI • Why Great Revolutions Will Become More Rare • Why Democratic Nations Naturally Desire Peace, and Democratic Armies, War • Which Is The Most Warlike and Most Revolutionary Class in Democratic Armies • Causes Which Render Democratic Armies Weaker Than Other Armies At The Outset Of A Campaign, And More Formidable In Protracted Warfare • Of Discipline in Democratic Armies • Some Considerations On War In Democratic Communities pkozemchak@darpa.mil

Tocqueville’s First Axiom of Science • The same interests, the same fears, the same passions that deter democratic nations from revolutions deter them also from war… • No protracted war can fail to endanger the freedom of a democratic country…All those who seek to destroy the liberties of a democratic nation ought to know that war is the surest and shortest means to accomplish it. This is the first axiom of the science. pkozemchak@darpa.mil

Why Great Revolutions Will Become More Rare …democratic ages should be times of rapid and incessant transformation. But is that really the case? Commerce …prepares men for freedom, but preserves them from revolution. It is a mistake to believe that…men will easily allow themselves to be thrust into perilous risks by …a bold innovator…he is reduced to impotence, not because he is conquered, but because he is alone. pkozemchak@darpa.mil

pkozemchak@darpa.mil

IDA Conference on Innovation and Military Culture • All DOD Management Systems Are Broken • Requirements, Acquisition, Personnel, Finance, S&T • No change in War Plans (SWA, NEA) in 10 years • Assumes no change in technology • Everything takes just as long as before • No credit for precision strike, networking, … • No plans for capitals, regime change pkozemchak@darpa.mil

US Economy and DOD:Which one has the fastest rate of innovation? pkozemchak@darpa.mil

US Innovation (1929-2005)Only a fair market maximizes innovation pkozemchak@darpa.mil

US Post-World War II Growth and Innovation pkozemchak@darpa.mil

Innovation and the Political Economy: 1989-2000 pkozemchak@darpa.mil

TRANSFORMATION TIMES pkozemchak@darpa.mil

TRANSFORMATION TIMES:1952 - 2005 pkozemchak@darpa.mil

Transformation Performance Measures pkozemchak@darpa.mil

USG2N pkozemchak@darpa.mil

Hayek’s Fatal Conceit • Impossible to know the future before it occurs • Impossible to build machine that processes information faster than universe (Santa Fe cite) • Create contingent claims markets pkozemchak@darpa.mil

What If ? • Counterfactual Histories • Military History Quarterly • US loses Battle of Midway • Pearl Harbor: JN 25 vs Purple • NSA Historical Monograph on Navy Sigint • MacArthur’s November 1941 Preemption Option • Admiral Layton’s “And I Was There” • Bin-Laden Captured • Alternative UBL Search Strategies pkozemchak@darpa.mil

Pearl Harbor http://www.abacuspub.com/catalog/s361.htm pkozemchak@darpa.mil

Afghanistan • http://www.novalogic.com/games.asp?GameKey=DFTFD pkozemchak@darpa.mil

Somalia http://www.novalogic.com/games.asp?GameKey=DFBHD pkozemchak@darpa.mil

http://simcity.ea.com/simcity4/about/about.html pkozemchak@darpa.mil

The Book of War: 25 Centuries of Great War Writing • 3 Military Cultures • Hero • Gentleman • Alternate • John Keegan pkozemchak@darpa.mil

http://www.civ3.com pkozemchak@darpa.mil

http://www.redstorm.com/games/ pkozemchak@darpa.mil

http://www.hooligans-thegame.com/Main.html This is a Real Time Strategy game with a twist.The object is to become the most notorious group of Hooligans in Europe.You must kill, maim and destroy the opposing Hooligan teams.You muster and control your faithful troops by administering drugs, alcohol and of course a good dose of violence every now and then.They must become true followers of your faction, for better or worse.Not only good strategic skills are required but also a good political mindset and managing capabilities to keep your troops happy and violent.Whoever is victorious and catches the public's attention in the media, will end up the most notorious Hooligans in Europe and the world!A title that every Hooligan with his heart in the right place loves to fight for! Ask not what your team can do for you, but what you can do for your team! pkozemchak@darpa.mil

Preventing Mass Terror • To win this war, we have to think differently…Preventing mass terror will be the responsibilities of Presidents far into the future…The first priority is to speed the transformation of our military…America’s next priority to prevent mass terror is to protect against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them…Our third and final priority in the fight against mass terror is to strengthen the advantage that good intelligence gives our country. • President Bush, 12/11/01 pkozemchak@darpa.mil

“21st Century Transformation” • In the past, the threat-based approach focused attention on near-termwar risks, and it had the effect of crowding out investments in the critical areas of people, modernization and transformation. If we are to have a 21st century military, we must balance all of those risks as we allocate defense dollars. It's not an easy thing to do. We're quite good a balancing one war risk against another war risk. But comparing a war risk against the benefit of transformation five years down the road, or balancing it against modernization, or balancing it against the importance of people and the critical element that people are in our defense structure is a much more difficult task. We have to see that we do not cheat the future or the people who risk their lives to secure that future for us. • Secretary Rumsfeld, “21st Century Transformation”, National Defense University 013102 pkozemchak@darpa.mil

Democracy, Deterrence and the Nexus • I think the linkage—the potential nexus between terrorists, terrorist networks, and weapons of mass destruction is something that is sufficiently—the size of that thought and the weight of that adds an impetus, an urgency to what it is we're doing, and I think people understand that. It isn't something that suggests that the sky is falling or that the world is going to end. It is simply that we have to recognize we're living in a time when there are enormously powerful weapons on this earth and that there are people who, a lot of people, thousands of people, who have been very carefully trained in terrorist activities and developed skills on how to do it, and have precious little interest in preserving their own lives. We have always known that if someone's willing to give up their own life that they have a, for the most part, have an ability to take other lives. They aren't inhibited by the kinds of cautions that normally affect the rest of us. • Q: And the only way to respond to that is to— • Rumsfeld: There is no choice. We simply cannot defend in every place at every time against every technique. All the advantages would be the terrorists' in that regard. Therefore you have no choice but to go after them where they are. And to the extent you're able, preempt them. And to the extent you're not able, disrupt them—their communications, their bank accounts, their ability to move from state to state and country to country. The heightened awareness, to use the president's phrase, that people are demonstrating. If you have confidence in a democratic system and in the American people, the fact that they are interested in these subjects, in my view argues that our country is more likely to make the right decisions with respect to national security issues, which given the risks and potential for surprise and the fact that we have to expect little or now warning for various types of asymmetrical threats, that's a good thing. Our country and our government will be better arranged, better prepared, and better able to deter things that need to be deterred and better able to defend if that's the position we're put in. pkozemchak@darpa.mil

Transformation and the Nexus pkozemchak@darpa.mil

Ancient Transformation Measures “If I am not mistaken, the least warlike and also the least revolutionary part of a democratic army will always be its chief commanders.” Direct election of commanders. “Teach the citizens to be educated ,orderly, firm, and free…” pkozemchak@darpa.mil

Innovation and Culture: