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ASGS – ADCIRC Surge Guidance System CERA – Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment

ASGS – ADCIRC Surge Guidance System CERA – Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment. Hurricane ISAAC (Aug 21 – Aug 30 2012) – Category 1. real-time interactive tool during emergency situations.

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ASGS – ADCIRC Surge Guidance System CERA – Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment

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  1. ASGS – ADCIRC Surge Guidance SystemCERA – Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment Hurricane ISAAC (Aug 21 – Aug 30 2012) – Category 1 • real-time interactive tool during emergency situations • deliver real-time results which allow the emergency management to get qualified assessments of the actual situation • decision making tool • development and validation tool for coastal modelers • validate models, compare the results with other data sources and improve the reliability and stability of the used model code

  2. ISAAC ASGS activation • First instance of the ASGS activated on Tue Aug, 21 at 4:15 pm CDT • LSU tezpur: 128 cores submitted to priority queue • CPRA grid (1,091,112 nodes) #3 The first cycle (advisory 7) was finished August 22 at 9:30 PM more than a day after initiliation.

  3. ISAAC ASGS activation • First CERA output for advisory 7 Wed Aug 22, 4PM CDT

  4. ISAAC # 10 -17 • # 10 - 17 ran without delay in the queue on 128 cores.  Each cycle took about 5.5 to 6 hours to complete the nowcast and forecast run. • get a faster turnaround for the ADCIRC model run • provide more alternate runs

  5. ISAAC # 18 • Sat, Aug 25 at 10 AM (advisory 18) • change to 512 cores on LSU’s tezpuron the CPRA grid instance • started another instance on the FEMAR4 grid running on 512 cores

  6. Utilization of different ADCIRC grids FEMA R4 grid – best resolution for MS/AL CPRA grid – best resolution for southeastern LA

  7. ISAAC # 18 • Sat, Aug 25 at 10 AM • CPRA grid instance started on US Army Corps of Engineers Engineering Research Development Center • Tests with veer left and veer right tracks on US Army and LSU clusters ISAAC # 22 • Sun, Aug 25 at 10 AM • FEMA R4 grid instance started on MSU cluster with wind model developed by Pat Fitzpatrick • moved FEMA R4 runs from public website to CERA Developer site • changed workflow to work with US Army server output • sent out CERA email notification to emergency managers

  8. CERA Clients • NOAA NWS Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center - Slidell, LA • NOAA NWS Forecast Center - Lake Charles, LA • Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP), LA • GIS Community • U.S. Geological Survey • Stephenson Disaster Management Institute @ LSU • Lake Pontchartrain Basin Foundation - Coastal Sustainability Program • Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute, University of South Carolina • Louisiana Sea Grant

  9. ISAAC # 25 - #33 • Sun, Aug 27 at 4 PM (# 25) – Wed, Aug 29 at 4 AM CDT (#33) • model runs on Army Corps of Engineers server (garnet), LSU’s tezpur, LONI Queenbee, MSU cluster • 3 track variations (NHC forecast, veer left -50%, veer right + 50%) 25 33

  10. ISAAC’s two landfalls • Wed, Aug 29 at 4 AM (# 33) – Thu, Aug 29 at 4 PM CDT (#39) • 1 track variation (NHC forecast) • official hindcast (NHC best track, Aug 21-Aug 29) Tue, Aug 28 6:45 PM CDT (#31A) Wed, Aug 29 2:15 AM CDT (#32A)

  11. How did ASGS do during the storm ?

  12. ISAAC hindcasts on CERA Developer website • CPRA grid • 5 different wind models • ADCIRC Asymmetric Vortex Model • LSU Wind Model with background winds • NOAA Hurricane Research Division (HWind) • OceanweatherFast Delivery Meteorology (OWI) • MSU Wind Model (FITZ Wind Scheme)

  13. ISAAC hindcasts - USGS Rapid Deployment gages

  14. ISAAC hindcasts – max inundation comparison

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