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WECC 2019 Scenario Demand-Side Models

WECC 2019 Scenario Demand-Side Models. July 11, 2019. WSTF Weekly Meeting Michael Bailey, P.E. WECC Scenarios Matrix. WECC Scenarios Matrix. How do we identify and model various degrees of Customer Adoption of Energy Service Options?. Customer Adoption Modeling.

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WECC 2019 Scenario Demand-Side Models

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  1. WECC 2019 Scenario Demand-Side Models July 11, 2019 WSTF Weekly Meeting Michael Bailey, P.E.

  2. WECC Scenarios Matrix

  3. WECC Scenarios Matrix

  4. How do we identify and model various degrees of Customer Adoption of Energy Service Options? Customer Adoption Modeling This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY

  5. Identify Customer End-Use

  6. EnergyPATHWAYS EnergyPATHWAYS (EP)—a bottom-up energy sector tool with stock-level accounting for all consuming, producing, delivering, and converting energy infrastructure—provides an analytic backbone to create electric technology adoption and power consumption scenarios. https://github.com/energyPATHWAYS/EnergyPATHWAYS. • Demand-Side Grid Model (dsgrid) NREL's demand-side grid (dsgrid) model harnesses decades of sector-specific energy modeling expertise to understand current and future U.S. electricity load for power systems analyses. Modeling Customer End-Use

  7. Models are complex. • Takes time to develop modeling data and expertise in using the tools. • EnergyPATHWAYS is open-source, but underlying data is not. • Dsgrid is not publicly available. • Not enough time in the WECC 2019 Study Program to create demand-side scenario models from scratch. Demand-Side Modeling Challenges

  8. NREL has already done the bulk of the work for us in the creation of an ensemble of Demand-side Scenarios that we can use as a potential starting point for the WECC demand-side scenarios. • These NREL demand-side scenarios were used in the Electrification Futures Study and the Energy-Water-Climate Change (EWCC) study. Demand-Side Modeling Solution

  9. NREL Demand-Side Scenarios

  10. But a renaissance in new demand growth will likely emerge through future electrification. Growth in Demand has Slowed

  11. NREL Electrification Futures Study (EFS)

  12. Crucial Questions

  13. Technology Cost and Performance

  14. Foundational Technology

  15. EFS Modeling

  16. NREL Demand-Side Scenarios

  17. Demand-Side Deep Dive

  18. Historic Electrical Technology Adoption

  19. Emergence of New Demand Growth

  20. EP Method in Brief

  21. Customer Adoption Scenarios

  22. Tech Adoption x Tech Advancement

  23. Transportation Sector

  24. Transportation Sector Questions

  25. Buildings Sector

  26. Building Sector Questions

  27. Industrial Sector

  28. Industrial Sector Questions

  29. Overall, Vehicle Electrification Dominate

  30. Overall, Space Heating Shifts Demand

  31. Electrification Doubles in High Scenario

  32. Energy Savings

  33. Normalize NREL Demand-Side Scenarios to ADS and 2038 horizon (and years in between). • Finalize and post Generation and Transmission Capital Cost Updates. • Develop Policy goal models. • Develop Constraint models. • Coordinate EWCC with Labs. • Post starting point metric parameters for stakeholder review. • Begin building study cases. WECC Next Steps

  34. Review NREL Demand-Side Scenario models and identify parameter adjustments. • Correlate Scenario matrix with Demand-Side Scenario ensemble. • Review Capital Expansion models and identify parameter adjustments. • Identify Policy goals to capture. Stakeholder Next Steps

  35. The following pages contain links to references and data associated with this presentation. Link References

  36. NREL Electrification Futures Study

  37. Electrification Futures Study (EFS) home page: • https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/electrification-futures.html • Electrification Futures Study Modeling Approach • https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/electrification-futures-approach.html • A NREL Electrification Futures Study

  38. Demand-Side Scenarios

  39. Foundational Technology Cost and Performance Data

  40. NREL: The Potential for Battery Energy Storage to Provide Peaking Capacity in the United States • Providing peaking capacity could be a significant U.S. market for energy storage. Of particular focus are batteries with 4-hour duration due to rules in several regions along with these batteries’ potential to achieve life-cycle cost parity with combustion turbines compared to longer-duration batteries. However, whether 4-hour energy storage can provide peak capacity depends largely on the shape of electricity demand—and under historical grid conditions, beyond about 28 GW nationally, the ability of 4-hour batteries to provide peak capacity begins to fall. • https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/74184.pdf Battery Storage

  41. NREL's demand-side grid (dsgrid) model harnesses decades of sector-specific energy modeling expertise to understand current and future U.S. electricity load for power systems analyses. • https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dsgrid.html dsgrid: Demand-Side Grid Model

  42. The energyPATHWAYS model is a professional, open-source energy and carbon planning tool for use in evaluating long-term, economy-wide greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios. • EnergyPathways is released under the MIT License (MIT). See the LICENSE file for further details. • https://github.com/energyPATHWAYS/EnergyPATHWAYS EnergyPATHWAYS

  43. Michael Bailey, P.E. Senior Staff Engineer mbailey@wecc.org

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