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Understanding Graduate Migration Flows in the UK

This study quantifies graduate migration between UK countries, emphasizing Scotland. Utilizing HESA data, it identifies determinants and predicts probabilities based on graduate characteristics.

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Understanding Graduate Migration Flows in the UK

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  1. Migration and the Pursuit of Graduate Jobs by Irene Mosca Robert E. Wright Department of Economics University of Strathclyde November 4, 2009 “Making An Impact – Universities and the Regional Economy” Woburn House Conference Centre, London

  2. Introduction One of our objectives is to quantify the nature of graduate labour market flows between the countries and regions of the United Kingdom Why? • Not a great deal is known about this. • Regional focus: England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales • Export and import of graduates equally interesting as the export and import of goods and services • Such Information is being fed into the CGE analysis Slide2/23

  3. Policy Relevance: Scotland • Concern with depopulation of rural and remote regions of Scotland • Migration flows of students and graduates thought to “reinforce” migration flows of general population (north and west to the east) • “Belief” that building HEIs in rural and remote regions will help reverse these trends • Costs versus benefits of “free higher education” • Over-education and under-employment issues Slide3/23

  4. Data Higher Education Statistical Agency (HESA) is the official agency for the collection, analysis and dissemination of quantitative information about higher education in the UK. Match data from three datasets: (1) Students in Higher Education Institutions (2) Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education Institutions • 13 cohorts of graduates: 1994/95 to 2006/2007 (3) Destinations of Leavers From Higher Education Longitudinal Survey • 1 cohort of graduates: 2002/03 Slide10/23

  5. The HESA data provide four key postal addresses: • Place of domicile • Place of study • Place of employment: Six months after graduation • Place of employment: 36 months after graduation • This allows us to identify different migration types: • “movers versus stayers”

  6. What are the determinants of graduate migration flows? • Fit logit regression models where the probability of migrating is related to observable characteristics • Analysis for today focuses on the Scottish experience • Today concerned mainly with Scottish-domiciled graduates who studied at Scottish higher education institutions • Consider “First-degree graduates” and “post-graduate graduates” separately • Fit similar models for England, Northern Ireland and Wales for comparative purposes

  7. FINDINGS • Scottish-domiciled “first-degree graduates”: • Probability of migrating to England or Wales or Northern Ireland after graduation is higher for: • Male • Full-time • Black ethnic background • Graduated at age 22 (inverted U-shape) • Science (or Science-led) • 1st Class degree • Russell Group university • Moved to go to HEI • Regional effect (higher for Strathclyde region) • Decline between 2002-2006

  8. Scottish-domiciled “post-graduate graduates” • Probability of migrating to England or Wales or Northern Ireland after graduation is higher for: • Male • Full-time • Non-white ethnic background • Graduated at age 26 (inverted U-shape) • Science (or Science-led) • Russell Group university • Moved to go to HEI • Regional effects of domicile less pronounced • Little change in 2002-2006

  9. How big are these effects? • STEP 1: Create an hypothetical (first degree) graduate with the “average” characteristics of Scottish graduates and use the logit model estimates to “predict” the probability of migrating . GRADUATE “A” • STEP (2) Create another hypothetical (first degree) graduate with the following characteristics: • Male • Full-time • White ethnic background • Graduated at age 22 • Science • 1st Class degree • Russell Group university • and use the logit model estimates to “predict” the probability of migrating . GRADUATE “B” • STEP (3) Compare the difference in the predicted probabilities

  10. Predicted Probability of Migrating : • Scottish-domiciled undergraduate graduates • Graduate A Graduate B • Scotland 3.9% 21.5%

  11. Predicted Probability of Migrating : • Scottish-domiciled undergraduate graduates • Graduate A Graduate B • Scotland 3.9% 21.5% • England 0.8% 2.0% • Northern Ireland 8.1% 26.7% • Wales 3.1% 11.4%

  12. Conclusions?

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