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The Retention of Graduate Human Capital: An Analysis of Graduate Migration Flows

The Retention of Graduate Human Capital: An Analysis of Graduate Migration Flows in and out of Scotland by Alessandra Faggian University of Southampton & Cher Li Robert E. Wright University of Strathclyde ERSA Conference, Liverpool, Aug. 2008. Introduction

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The Retention of Graduate Human Capital: An Analysis of Graduate Migration Flows

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  1. The Retention of Graduate Human Capital: An Analysis of Graduate Migration Flows in and out of Scotland by Alessandra Faggian University of Southampton & Cher Li Robert E. Wright University of Strathclyde ERSA Conference, Liverpool, Aug. 2008

  2. Introduction One of our objectives is to quantify the nature of graduate labour market flows between the countries and regions of GB Why bother? • Not a great deal is known about this. • Regional focus: Scotland, England and Wales • export and import of graduates equally interesting as the export and import of goods and services • Information along these lines will be fed into the CGE analysis Slide2/23

  3. Policy Relevance • Concern with depopulation of rural and remote regions of Scotland • Migration flows of students and graduate thought to reinforce migration flows of general population (north and west to the east) • “Belief” that building Higher and Further Education institutions in rural and remote regions will help reverse these trends Slide3/23

  4. Data HESA (Higher Education Statistical Agency)is the official agency for the collection, analysis and dissemination of quantitative information about higher education in the UK. We use two datasets: (1) Destinations of leavers from HEIs (DLHE) (2) Students in HEIs 12 waves available from 1994/95 to 2005/2006 For current analysis, we focus on the most recent wave (05/06) which includes information on around 2.4 million students and around 230,000 graduates. Slide4/23

  5. The University of Aberdeen The Robert Gordon University Napier University The University of Dundee The University of Stirling University of Abertay Dundee The Royal Scottish Academy of Music and Drama The University of St Andrews Glasgow School of Art The University of Edinburgh The University of Glasgow Edinburgh College of Art Heriot - Watt University The University of Paisley Scottish Agricultural College Glasgow Caledonian University The University of Strathclyde 20 HEIs: 8 pre-92 Universities, 6 post-92 Universities and 7 Colleges (mainly clustered around Glasgow and Edinburgh) Total number of students in 05/06: 215, 820 Number of students went up by 44.9% between 94/95 and 05/06 (c.f. national average 49.1%; England 48.7%). A Brief Picture of HEIs in Scotland Slide5/23

  6. 45.0 43.6 42.2 40.0 38.6 38.1 35.0 31.4 Rate per 1,000 population 30.0 25.0 England Scotland Wales 20.0 NI UK 15.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Figure 1: students per 1,000 population, by countries, 1994/95-2005/06 Scotland UK average Slide6/23

  7. Some descriptives… Slide7/23

  8. Slide8/23

  9. The HESA data provide three key postal addresses: • Place of domicile • Place of study • Place of employment This allows us to identify 3 migration types Slide9/23

  10. Stayers, Interregional Movers V.S. Leavers Two different movements studied here: • LONG DISTANCE movements (inter-country within GB) – ‘brain drain’ or ‘brain gain’? 2. MEDIUM DISTANCE movements (interregional but within country) – interregional re-allocation of skilled labour Leavers (L) Interregional movers (I) Slide10/23

  11. Breakdown of Migration Type for Scotland and the Rest of GB Slide11/23

  12. Model 2 Model 1 Stayers Leavers (Scottish IN-migration) Interregional Mover Interregional Mover Stayers Leavers (Scottish OUT-migration) Slide12/23

  13. We model both OUT-flows (Model 1) and IN-flows (Model 2) of graduates from and to Scotland using a Multinomial Logit Model to identify both problems of: • Retention of graduates within Scotland • (Model 1: stayers and interregional migrants) • Attraction of graduates from outside Scotland (Model 2: leavers from England and Wales) Slide13/23

  14. MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODELLING j=Leavers,Interregional Migrant, Stayer (base category) q=individual identifier Slide14/23

  15. Estimation Results (Model 1) ***significant at 1% level, **significant at 5% level, *significant at 10% level ***significant at 1% level, **significant at 5% level, *significant at 10% level Slide15/23

  16. Factor Change Scale Relative to Category Stayer .47 .55 .65 .77 .91 1.07 1.26 1.49 1.76 S Male I L 0/1 I BlackEthnicity S L 0/1 L AsianEthnicity I S 0/1 S MixedEthnicity I L 0/1 S 1st/2.1 I L 0/1 S Postgraduate I L 0/1 -.76 -.6 -.43 -.26 -.1 .07 .23 .4 .56 Logit Coefficient Scale Relative to Category Stayer Plots of Odds Ratios and Discrete Change Coefficients (Model 1) Slide16/23

  17. Factor Change Scale Relative to Category Stayer .49 .74 1.11 1.66 2.48 3.72 5.58 8.36 12.52 I Socialsciences S L 0/1 S Sciences I L 0/1 I Combined S L 0/1 L Ex-polytechnics I S 0/1 L College S I 0/1 Logit Coefficient Scale Relative to Category Stayer Plots of Odds Ratios and Discrete Change Coefficients (Model 1), cont Slide17/23

  18. Estimation Results (Model 2) ***significant at 1% level, **significant at 5% level, *significant at 10% level Slide18/23

  19. Estimation Results (Model 2, cont) ***significant at 1% level, **significant at 5% level, *significant at 10% level Slide19/23

  20. Factor Change Scale Relative to Category Stayer .47 .55 .65 .77 .91 1.07 1.26 1.49 1.76 S Male I L 0/1 I Black Ethnicity S L 0/1 L Asian Ethnicity I S 0/1 S Mixed Ethnicity I L 0/1 S 1st/2:1degree I L 0/1 S Postgraduate I L 0/1 -.76 -.6 -.43 -.26 -.1 .07 .23 .4 .56 Logit Coefficient Scale Relative to Category Stayer Plots of Odds Ratios and Discrete Change Coefficients (Model 2) Slide20/23

  21. Factor Change Scale Relative to Category Stayer .36 .45 .56 .71 .89 1.12 1.41 1.78 2.24 L Social sciences S I 0/1 I Sciences S L 0/1 S Combined L I 0/1 L Ex polytechnics I S 0/1 I College L S 0/1 Logit Coefficient Scale Relative to Category Stayer Plots of Odds Ratios and Discrete Change Coefficients (Model 2), cont Slide21/23

  22. Conclusions and Future Work • Preliminary Conclusions • Scotland is a ‘net-loser’ of graduates in absolute terms, but vis-à-vis elsewhere in GB, it attracts the largest % of high-quality graduates • Determinants of leavers similar from and to Scotland: male(+), age(-), Asian(-), postgraduate(+), 1st/2.1(+), science(+), combined(+), ex-polytech(-), college(-), and regional effects • Regional retention of human capital crucial: high-mobility graduates are of best quality Future work • To incorporate more variables on regional characteristics, e.g. quality of life, social/economic environment; • To use more disaggregated regions for analysis of England/Wales, e.g. NUTS2; • Check for consistency of results over time and/or time trends by incorporating longer time series in the analysis Slide22/23

  23. Thanks for your attention! For more details on this project, see http://ewds.strath.ac.uk/iheirei/Home.aspx Or email: Cher.Li@strath.ac.uk

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