1 / 18

Alaskan Arctic Economic Access : Faster than Expected

Alaskan Arctic Economic Access : Faster than Expected. James Overland NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Seattle. 250 Miles of Open Water North of Alaska. Alaska. NOAA Cross-Line Office Response to Shell 2012 Sea Ice Season Request. Shell Oil Kulluk. Shell Oil.

kacia
Download Presentation

Alaskan Arctic Economic Access : Faster than Expected

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Alaskan Arctic Economic Access :Faster than Expected James Overland NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Seattle

  2. 250 Miles of Open Water North of Alaska Alaska

  3. NOAA Cross-Line Office Response to Shell 2012 Sea Ice Season Request Shell Oil Kulluk Shell Oil

  4. SEA ICE SEPTEMBER 2012 ~50 % loss of extent from climatology NSIDC

  5. 75 % Loss in Sea Ice Volume Since the 1980s Sea Ice Reanalysis recently verified by satellite thickness estimates Schweiger et al. 2011, Maslowski et al. 2012 Laxon et al. 2013

  6. June Snow Cover 2012 relative to 1971-2000

  7. Polar Bears Loss of Habitat Walrus haul-outs move to North Of Alaska Land Ringed Ribbon Walrus calf Carin Ashjian, 2004

  8. Atmospheric Storm in Pacific Arctic 2010 Alaska September 2010 and August 2012

  9. Global Warming Arctic amplification Teleconnection and circulation pattern change “Arctic Amplification”: Why New Normal? Global Warming +Multiple Feedbacks Reduction of Arctic sea Ice Atmosphere warming Ocean absorbs more heat OND Temp Anomaly Sept Sea Ice Extent JAS SSTA Heat releases to atmosphere in the fall. Surface albedo decrease

  10. Cascading Climate Impacts to Ocean and Biology Arctic Amplification From E Carmack

  11. “Better” CMIP5 Climate Models

  12. “Better” CMIP5 Climate Models

  13. Predictions Human forcing is known or already in the climate system. Summer Arctic wide sea ice loss is very likely to occur within a decade or two, based on multiple information. But summer open water is happening now in Alaska For 2100: Model Results Mitigation scenario (Rcp 4.5) late fall +7 °C ; late spring +2 °C Business as usual (Rcp 8.5) late fall +13 °C ; late spring +5 °C

  14. Hot Arctic-Cold Continents Hot Arctic-Cold Continents Added Ocean Heat Storage and Heat Flux to Atmosphere from New Sea Ice Free Areas

  15. Increased Weather Linkages? Arctic-Mid Latitude Linkages “Warm Arctic-Cold Continents”

  16. Potential Arctic Connectionscan make it colder and snowier in Mid-latitude winter and Drought in Summer (varies a lot) Not Just Global Warming Everywhere February 2010 Winter 2009-2010 was most extreme in 145 years of Measurements

More Related