1 / 11

General Equilibrium Planning of Road Sector Investment Programs in Ghana

General Equilibrium Planning of Road Sector Investment Programs in Ghana. Henning Tarp Jensen, PhD Institute of Food & Resource Economics University of Copenhagen SSATP Annual Meeting Lilongwe, Malawi 19-21 October, 2009. Terminology: Road expenditures. Types of road sector expenditures

kadeem
Download Presentation

General Equilibrium Planning of Road Sector Investment Programs in Ghana

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. General Equilibrium Planning of Road Sector Investment Programs in Ghana Henning Tarp Jensen, PhD Institute of Food & Resource Economics University of Copenhagen SSATP Annual Meeting Lilongwe, Malawi 19-21 October, 2009

  2. Terminology: Road expenditures • Types of road sector expenditures • Existing roads • Recurrent maintenance • Capital road works (CRW) • New roads • Focus: Capital road works (CRW)

  3. Terminology: Road sector analyses • Types of road sector analyses • Road segments • Impact evaluation (Jensen 2009) • Road systems • Program planning • Focus: Program planning (road systems)

  4. Terminology: Analytical framework • Program planning • Partial equilibrium (PE) dynamic simulation models • Focus on 1st order effects of CRW • General equilibrium (GE) dynamic simulation models • Focus on 1st & 2nd order effects of CRW • Focus: GE dynamic planning model (CGE-RONET) • Based on RONET planning model (Archondo-Callao 2009)

  5. CGE-RONET: Advantages Account for key spillover effects • RONET planning model (PE) • 1st order effects (VOC savings) • CGE-RONET planning model (GE) • 1st order effects (VOC savings) • 2nd order effects • 2nd order effects in CGE-RONET • Increased transport sector productivity • Reduced transport costs (consumers) • Reduced marketing margins (producers) • Relative price changes (commodities) • Employment growth • Capital accumulation

  6. CGE-RONET: Advantages Focus on economy-wide policy outcome variables • RONET planning model • VOC costs + CRW costs = road user costs (outcome) • CGE-RONET planning model • VOC savings & CRW costs (input) • Economy-wide impact (outcome) • Economy-wide outcome variables in CGE-RONET • Household welfare • Household poverty • Labor Employment • Macroeconomic indicators (GDP, C, I, X, M) • Etc.

  7. CGE-RONET: Advantages Focus on key policy choice variables • Key policy choice variables: CRW timing & quality. • Overall policy decision criteria • Political CRW sequencing • E.g. industrial policy • E.g. regional development policy • Minimum road quality • CRW intervals • CRW quality

  8. CGE-RONET application: Variation in CRW intervals (years)

  9. CGE-RONET application: Variation in CRW quality – 4 year CRW intervals

  10. CGE-RONET application: Variation in CRW quality – 5 year CRW intervals

  11. Conclusion • Significant advantages of CGE-RONET • Account for economy-wide effects of Capital Road Works (CRW) • VOC savings & CRW costs (1st order effects) • Transport costs/marketing margins/relative prices (2nd order effects) • Employment/capital accumulation (2nd order effects) • Allow for key policy decision criteria • Political CRW sequencing • Minimum road quality • CRW intervals • CRW quality • Allow computation of key policy outcome variables • Welfare indicators • Poverty indicators • Employment indicators • Macroeconomic indicators

More Related