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PRESENTATION: SYRIA

PRESENTATION: SYRIA. MAP OF SYRIA. POLITICAL SITUATION. The conflict in Syria is escalating and could descend into Civil War. Increasing number of refugees are crossing into Turkey due to unrest and military operations against protesters.

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PRESENTATION: SYRIA

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  1. PRESENTATION: SYRIA

  2. MAP OF SYRIA

  3. POLITICAL SITUATION • The conflict in Syria is escalating and could descend into Civil War. • Increasing number of refugees are crossing into Turkey due to unrest and military operations against protesters. • There is increasing pressure from the UK and France to introduce a UNSC resolution on Syria condemning human rights abuses and referring it as a threat to international peace and security. • Protests are continuing on a daily basis and appear to escalate.

  4. POLITICAL SITUATION cont. • Lives are being lost by security force personnel and protesters – according to media sources +1300, with 10 000 arrested. • Calls on the minority Alawite regime to step down are being ignored. • Promises by the Syrian President Assad to promote internal dialogue, to lift media restrictions, to lift emergency rule and free political prisoners are still wanting. • According to Mission reports, the government believes the majority of Syrians are not in favour of the protests despite the fact that there appears to be a common desire for reforms.

  5. POLITICAL SITUATION cont. • In March 2011, demonstrations began in Daraa, calling for political and economic reforms as well as for the release of the children detained for writing pro-democracy graffiti. • Demonstrations sparked a governmental and security crackdown on the protesters and on the opposition, especially on 22 April 2011, after security forces moved in to disperse the "Good Friday“ demonstrations. • Protesters comprise of ordinary Syrians, secularists, leftists, tribal figures, Islamists and students.

  6. POLITICAL SITUATION cont. • A key demand of the protest movement has been the abolishment of the nearly 50-year-old emergency law; the release of political prisoners, freedom of speech and a multi-party system. • Protesters also demand the elimination of Article 8, which designates "the Arab Socialist Baath Party" as the leadership of the state. However, the protests have not been able to seriously threaten the regime's existence. • On 21 April 2011, the government passed a draft law to lift the 48 years of emergency rule as well as passed a law to abolish a special security court which operates outside the ordinary judicial system.

  7. POLITICAL SITUATION cont. • On 1 May 2011, the government announced a two weeks Amnesty period that called on citizens in possession of weapons to surrender themselves to the government. • The Government continued to deploy military tanks and armed vehicles to various cities, especially Daraa, to quell dissent in an effort to silence dissent. • The confrontation between protestors and the security forces in Syria escalated on 6 June 2011 in Jisr al-Shughur. • On 17 June 2011, military forces were deployed to the remote towns of Deir el-Zour province near the frontier with Iraq, a volatile tribal area.

  8. POLITICAL SITUATION cont. • In June 2011, the government announced it was drafting a new law on general elections with promises that political parties and a freer press would be allowed. • The government believes the majority of Syrians are not in favour of the protests and that the situation will be resolved soon.

  9. SECURITY SITUATION • Media reports suggest that on average, some 500 people are being arrested and intimidated by security forces daily. The government continues to blame the violence on criminal armed gangs and foreign intervention. • Syria’s state-controlled media claimed that some 120 Syrian security forces were killed by armed gangs. However, it is impossible to verify the claims. • Syria's military largely is relying on loyal army units to quash protest hot spots. Despite increasing reports of low-level defections from some military divisions, the upper tiers of the military, (drawn almost exclusively from Alawites), remain loyal.

  10. SECURITY SITUATION cont. • The military is spread across the northwestern area bordering Turkey, and has remained deployed in the southern region, where protests started in Deraa. • A military campaign against the western town of Tal Kalakh in May prompted Syrians to flee to Lebanon. • On 27 April 2011, a draft statement proposed by France, Britain, Germany and Portugal was opposed by several countries in the 15-member Security Council. China and India called for political dialogue and a peaceful resolution of the crisis, but stopped short of condemning the violence.

  11. SECURITY SITUATION cont. • Russia does not believe that the Syria situation should be discussed in the Security Council and has indicated its intention to veto any further similar resolutions on Syria. • On 27 May 2011, during the Security Council discussion on Syria, South Africa called on the Syrian authorities to exercise restraint and encourage dialogue in an effort to resolve the current crisis peacefully. • The US drafted a resolution at the level of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) related to the Syria nuclear file and with 17 votes in favour, the IAEA adopted a resolution rebuking Syria.

  12. ECONOMIC SITUATION • Syria’s economy is based on agriculture, oil, industry, and tourism. • However, the economy faces serious challenges and impediments to growth, including: a large and poorly performing public sector; declining rates of oil production; widening non-oil deficit; wide-scale corruption; weak financial and capital markets; and high rates of unemployment tied to a high population growth rate. • As a result of an inefficient and corrupt centrally planned economy, Syria has low rates of investment, and low levels of industrial and agricultural productivity.

  13. CHALLENGES • Broaden democratic participation in governance in Syria: the minority Alawite sect is in control of government and the security forces. • Reform to the centralised, socialist economy is essential. • Keeping Syria in the process towards finding a solution to the MEPP and a lasting peace with Israel. • Finding a way to establish internal dialogue between the current regime and opposition groups towards inclusive democracy in Syria.

  14. IMPLICATIONS FOR SOUTH AFRICA • Maintaining South Africa MTN investment in Syria. • Implementation of the bilateral agreements on education and on trade and economic co-operation between South Africa and Syria. • Defending South Africa’s position on finding a peaceful solution to the internal crisis in Syria through internal dialogue. • Delinking, in terms of developments in the whole MENA region UNSC pressures on Syria in line with resolutions adopted for Libya.

  15. IMPLICATIONS FOR SA cont. • Arguing South Africa’s position on equitable international reaction to developments in the whole of the MENA, including in Yemen, Bahrain on UNSC referral. • Navigating pressure from both the Western camps (in favour of a Syrian resolution) and the Russia and China alignment (against a resolution) in terms of South Africa’s positioning of its foreign policy interests.

  16. THANK YOU.

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