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SCEC - EarthScope (PBO) a confluence of interests

SCEC - EarthScope (PBO) a confluence of interests. Ken Hudnut U. S. Geological Survey, Pasadena. How can EarthScope (& ANSS) help to further SCEC science goals?. Review what we have (SCEC CMM3 & SCIGN) Examine the EarthScope & SCEC proposals

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SCEC - EarthScope (PBO) a confluence of interests

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  1. SCEC - EarthScope (PBO)a confluence of interests Ken Hudnut U. S. Geological Survey, Pasadena

  2. How can EarthScope (& ANSS) help to further SCEC science goals? • Review what we have (SCEC CMM3 & SCIGN) • Examine the EarthScope & SCEC proposals • PBO 2 workshop mini-proposal process defined configuration - backbone & clusters • PBO committees to select sites - to go from general to specific & meet science goals • What if something else would be ‘better’? • Any suggested changes should go to PBO SC • Identify opportunities for synergy • Missions & funding levels of agencies and NGO’s • Joint development of data products

  3. SCIGN Data Products* • 1st Year • Combined time • series (1996-2002) • 3rd Year • Real-time earth- • quake response • 5th Year • Resolve rates on • primary LA basin • faults (and others) *NASA grant - Webb, PI

  4. SCEC Tectonic Geodesy • 1st Year • Complete and • distribute CMM3 • 3rd Year • Integrate InSAR • with GPS for • vertical defor- • mation rates • 5th Year • Resolve rate dis- • crepancies • between geology • and geodesy

  5. Understanding transient deformation • Temporal & spatial variations do occur: • Clustering (e.g., Basin & Range, ECSZ, Asia) • Discrepant geological and geodetic rates • Sequences involving fault interaction (e.g., Joshua Tree - Landers - Big Bear - Hector Mine; Anatolian system, etc.) • PBO and SCEC have nearly identical stated scientific goals on this range of related topics Courtesy Anke Friedrich

  6. Understanding fault interaction 1857 San Andreas • Emerging view of large events as a composite of sub-events or asperities • Dynamic triggering • Static triggering • Important to study analogous events • Cascading rupture - is there order in the chaos? • San Andreas fault - continental transform with excellent on-land exposure of ‘creeping to locked’ transition zones, long simple sections, and ample fault zone complexity Bayarsayhan et al., 1996 Kurushin et al., 1998 1957 Gobi-Altay

  7. San Andreas fault • 35 mm/yr slip rate; • >70% of plate motion • 1685, 1812, 1857 eq’s • Big Bend compression • 1971 Sylmar (M 6.7) • 1994 Northridge (M 6.7) • SoCal is now heavily ‘wired’ - need more? • 150+ BB CISN stations • 250+ SCIGN stations • Catalog; SCEC CMM3 • ‘Natural laboratory’ • Likely source of most future ‘Big Ones’

  8. 400 station transportable array “big foot” • ~2400 instrument flexible array USArray • 4-km-deep scientific drilling project into the San Andreas fault zone near Parkfield SAFOD • 875 permanent GPS stations • 175 borehole strainmeters/seismometers • 100 campaign (portable) GPS systems • 5 laser strainmeters • Data and data products PBO What is EarthScope? Fully open data policy

  9. What is PBO? • Five year build out phase • Five year O&M phase • Total 10-year operational commitment • Six regional offices in Alaska, Pacific NW, Basin & Range, Rocky Mtns, Southern and Northern California • Each region has dedicated resources for recon, permitting, installation, maintenance, and data • Nominal data set – 30 sec data file downloaded daily • Potential data sets • 1 sec real time • 5 Hz on-demand • Two precise processing centers • Two archive/distribution centers

  10. 125 SCIGN stations proposed for support under NSF existing networks proposal (PBO relies on continued existence of SCIGN & diverse matching funds) • NSF funded ‘existing arrays’ proposal fully for next 1.5 years - plan & carry out a transition to PBO operations and maintenance by the end of 5 yrs. • ~170 new continuous GPS stations; SAF, ECSZ, transition zones (along-strike and with depth) • ~64 borehole strainmeters (yellow); 5 long-base laser strainmeters (Salton Trough ECSZ & PKF vicinities) PBO and SCIGN

  11. For discussion • CISN, ANSS, EarthScope, and PBO do not optimally address questions in earthquake source physics (e.g., SCEC FARM workshop topic on co-seismic phenomena); how can plans be modified to help rectify this? Are we too late? • How can we measure Dc? Stress heterogeneity? • Heaton slip pulses? Need 3D particle motions close to fault (e.g., the San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain and Coachella Valley in SoCal - large events ~likely) • Need high resolution deformation field for co-seismics to map slip distributions - without InSAR EarthScope is deficient; what else can be done? (Geo-EarthScope to provide high-res imagery) • Fall AGU 2003 & SSA 2004 (Palm Springs)

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