Food Systems and the Environment

1. Food Systems and the Environment Searching for sustainable solutions Mario Herrero | OCE Science Leader Animal Food and Health Sciences OCE Science Leaders Forum, Canberra

2. The food security challenge • Need to feed 9-10 billion people by 2050 (1/3 more than now) • At a lower environmental cost (roughly the same land, low emissions, water and nutrient use) • In a socially and economically acceptable way (equitably, at the right prices, etc) • Food systems have been changing and are likely to change even more! • How can research contribute to more sustainable food systems?

3. The double burden of nutrition overfed (Nelson and Van der Mersbrugge 2013)

4. Key aspects of the global demand for food

5. Projections of global food demand to 2050 Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012

6. The ‘livestock revolution’: as people get richer they consume more meat People want to eat chicken, pork and milk! FAO: SOFA2011

7. The demand for livestock products to 2050 Rosegrant et al 2009

8. Most growth in consumption in Asia and Latin America FAO: SOFA2011

9. Three strategies to increase the sustainability of the food system • Reducing food waste • Increasing food production • Reducing food consumption

10. Make up of food waste in the developed and the developing world waste 25-40% of all food Godfray et al Science 2010

11. Global integrated assessmentHow to feed the World sustainably in the future? Managing demand and production

12. Multi-scale assessment of complex systems Herrero et al, Science (2010)

13. Will we be able to feed 9 billion people if current trends continue? • YES…..but at different social and environmental costs, depends on what we do. • More food trade • Increases in prices • More land expansion, some intensification • We will not meet key environmental goals (reducing greenhouse gas emissions, reducing deforestation, managing water)

14. Exploiting yield gaps essential FP=Farmers’ practice; IC=Improved cultivar; BN=Balanced nutrition Courtesy of Peter Craufurd

15. Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein produced • Large inefficiencies in the developing world – an opportunity? Herrero et al PNAS (2013)

16. Managing food demand….towards sustainable diets

17. To eat or not to eat…..meat? • A duality • Health problems in the developed world but need for nourishment in the developing world • How can we differentiate this message? • Most assessments show that reducing meat consumption could have a very positive impact on the environment • ….but no assessment has shown what the social, economic and nutritional impacts would be, especially in the developing world

18. Changing diets – consuming less meat or different types of meat could lower GHG emissions (Stehfest et al 2009) Stehfest et al. 2009. Climatic Change

19. Range of GHG intensities for different livestock products 200 180 160 140 120 kg CO2 eq/kg animal protein 100 80 60 40 20 0 Pig Poultry Beef Milk Eggs Source: DeVries & DeBoer (2008)

20. Globally people love chicken, pork and milk! FAO: SOFA2011

21. The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009): can we produce them? Grains 1048 million tonnes more to 2050 human consumption 458 million MT Livestock 430 million MT Monogastrics mostly biofuels 160 million MT

22. Is sustainable intensification a win – win solution for livelihoods, food security and the environment? Herrero et al PNAS 2013 Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS 2013 Garnett…Herrero… et al. Science 2013 Smith et al. Global Change Biology 2013 Herrero et al Nature Climate Change (in press)

23. More milk production With less animals Less GHG emissions Less land use change A little bit more cropland Lower land expansion Havlik, Herrero et al PNAS (in press)

24. Key areas of work • Global change, scenarios, food security (more social and economics aspects) • Sustainable diets: linked to global change work, policy, others • Targeting sustainable intensification in food systems • Livestock yield gaps • All have Australia / international components Presentation title | Presenter name

25. Recent contributions

26. Partners • Sustainable Agriculture Flagship • Climate Adaptation Flagship • Stockholm Environmental Institute • International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis • Princeton University • Potsdam Institute for Climate Change Research • University of Oxford • CGIAR centres • IPCC • Netherlands Environmental Agency • Columbia University Presentation title | Presenter name

27. People • OCE • 2 post docs • 2 PhD students • Externally funded • 3 post docs • 2 PhD students • Joint appointments (3) • Stockholm Environment Institute • IIASA • Potsdam Presentation title | Presenter name

28. Thank you