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Arley Johnson Executive Director Advocates for The Other America

Arley Johnson Executive Director Advocates for The Other America. ‘I hear Nixon’s a hell of a poker. Political Outlook. Political Outlook. “ Taxmageddon ” looming in December Taxpayers face $494 billion tax increase on 1/1/13 Debt ceiling increase needed FY13 gridlock

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Arley Johnson Executive Director Advocates for The Other America

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  1. Arley Johnson Executive Director Advocates for The Other America ‘I hear Nixon’s a hell of a poker Political Outlook

  2. Political Outlook • “Taxmageddon” looming in December • Taxpayers face $494 billion tax increase on 1/1/13 • Debt ceiling increase needed • FY13 gridlock • Future crisis of federal government facing default unless entitlements are reformed • “Doomsday” Commission ultimately becomes only way to resolve gridlock

  3. Political Outlook • House of Representatives • Recent History: Democratic control for 40 years (1955-1995), Republican Revolution (1995-2007), then two waves (2006/2008, 54 seat change and 2010, 64 seat change). • Current Makeup: 242 Republicans, 190 Democrats, 3 vacancies (all D seats). 25 seat flip needed for Democrats to retake House. • Cook Political Report: 54 seats are Lean or Toss Up (22 D / 31 R). (as of 5/3/12)

  4. Political Outlook • Senate • Current Makeup: 53 Democrats (including Independents); 47 Republicans. 4 seat flip (assuming Obama victory) needed for Republican takeover. • 33 Members in Cycle: 23 D / 10 R • 12 Open Seats: 7 D / 5 R (incl. Lugar primary loss) • Cook Political Report: 14 Seats are Lean or Toss Up (as of 5/3/12)

  5. Political Outlook • Congress • Both parties will tell you they have a path to keep or retake power of both the House and Senate. • Effect of Redistricting? • 94 Freshmen House Members (85 R / 9 D) up for reelection. Many Senators – 2006’s “majority makers” – up for first reelection. • Congressional Approval Rating: 14.6% (RCP Average 5/1/12)

  6. Presidential Battleground States Source: Real Clear Politics as of 5/14/2012

  7. Comparing the Ryan to the White House budget • ·         2 trillion dollars less in tax revenue • ·         Spend 5.3 Trillion dollars less than White House over next decade • ·         16% less than W.H. on Income Security programs for poor (from food stamps to housing assistance to the earned income tax credit) • ·         25% less on transportation • ·         33% less on than “education, training, employment, social services” • ·         14.6% less on natural resources and environment • Defense • ·         7% less than White House • White House Budget: • http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2013/assets/32_1.pdf • Ryan Budget: • http://budget.house.gov/uploadedfiles/chairmans_mark_fy013.pdf

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