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CHINA – MARKET BRIEFING

FEBRUARY 2008. CHINA – MARKET BRIEFING. U.S. Wheat Associates CHINA. China – Population: 1.3 billion. China Economy: Fastest Growing Major Economy ( 2007 growth 11.5% - 11.9%). (Billion US$). < 2005 – 2006 actual growth 10% - 10.9% >. Source: China National Statistics Bureau

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CHINA – MARKET BRIEFING

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  1. FEBRUARY 2008 CHINA – MARKET BRIEFING U.S. Wheat Associates CHINA

  2. China – Population: 1.3 billion

  3. China Economy:Fastest Growing Major Economy (2007 growth 11.5% - 11.9%) (Billion US$) < 2005 – 2006 actual growth 10% - 10.9% > Source: China National Statistics Bureau Exchange rate @7.6 (2007), growth rate 2008-2010 @8.5%, 2011-2020 @7%

  4. High Per Capita GDP Growth (Unit: US$) Source: China National Statistics Bureau Exchange rate @7.6 (2007), growth rate 2008-2010 @8.5%, 2011-2020 @7%

  5. China – Wheat area: PRC 23.5 MHa / USA 23.4 MHa

  6. Qinhaungdao • Dalian • Xingang • Lianyungang • Nantong • Zhangjiagang • Shanghai • Ningbo • Xiamen • Fangcheng • Huangpu • Shenzhen • Zhanjiang China -15 MAJOR PORTS • Yantiai • Qingdao

  7. China Wheat Situation

  8. Chinese vs. Rest of the World Ending Stocks China accounted for 49% of world stocks in 1999/2000, down to 29%

  9. China’s Soybean Supply / Demand

  10. China’s Rice Supply / Demand

  11. China’s Corn Supply / Demand

  12. China –Wheat Area and Production 4.6 107 23.0

  13. China Wheat Production - Major Producer Provinces (Unit: MMT) Source: China National Grain & Oil Information Center (CNGOIC) * Estimate

  14. China Wheat Yield - By Major Province (Unit: MT/Ha) Source: China National Grain & Oil Information Center (CNGOIC) * Estimate

  15. China Daily Grain Market Price : Source: China National Grain & Oils Information Center Exchange rate @8.0 since Sep 2004, @7.86 since Nov 2006, @7.55 since Jul 2007 @7.5 since Aug 2007, @7.15 since Jan 2008

  16. U.S. FOB PNW Prices

  17. SRW and Soft White Prices

  18. Ocean Freight Rates for Grains

  19. China Wheat Imports -Calendar Year – by Country (Unit: MMT) Source: China Customs Statistics

  20. China Flour Imports -Calendar Year – by Country (Unit: TMT) Source: China Customs Statistics

  21. China’s US ImportsPurchases and actual imports: Containerized and bulk vessel shipments 376 152 SW/WW-178 NS/DNS-188 SRW – 66 HRW – 0.5 SW/WW-5.8 NS/DNS-3.3 SRW – 57.3 HRW – 0.3 SW/WW-10.5 NS/DNS-0.7 SRW – 0 725 516 *(July – June)

  22. China Wheat Exports -Calendar Year – by Country (Unit: MMT) Source: China Customs Statistics

  23. China Wheat Exports -*Crop Year – by Country (Unit: MMT) Source: China Customs Statistics *Crop Year from June to next May

  24. China Flour Exports -Calendar Year – by Country (Unit: 10 TMT) Source: China Customs Statistics

  25. China Flour Exports -*Marketing Year – by Country (Unit: 10 TMT) Source: China Customs Statistics *Marketing Year from July to next June

  26. China’s flour consumption estimates – 70 MMT

  27. High High Market Pressure Medium Medium Low Low Current Future Market Quality Segments

  28. QSR Expansion (Quick Service Retail)Western-Style Fast Food Source: China Food Industry Association and internet

  29. HRW & HWW Use – China( HWW - 12.5 or higher protein ) • Western Pan Bread • (only pan loaf tested in OVA) • Sweet Breads • European Hearth Breads • Dumpling (Jiao Zi) Wrappers • Premium Grade Chilled and Fresh Noodles

  30. Policies Affecting Wheat • Domestic & int’l price differential • TRQ • Value added tax - VAT • Milling wheat and flour exports • VAT, TRQ • Flour exports to other Asian markets • Animal & plant quarantine rules • Dockage and non-wheat seeds • TCK and KB fungus • Insects • MRL’s for pesticides • Food labeling requirements

  31. US Wheat Activities • Trade servicing and information • Weekly price report • Crop and harvest progress reports • Supply & demand reports • Industry & Government relations • Publications • Chinese or dual language • Sino – America Baking School • Instructor training (USA, Europe, Asia) • Baking technical servicing • Milling technical servicing • Wheat procurement training • Overseas Varietal Analysis • Asian products collaborative

  32. Questions / Answers

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