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Research objectives

Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and Michael Maret Shippensburg University. Research objectives. Generate forecasts of urban growth in the BMR

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Research objectives

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  1. Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan areaClaire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and Michael MaretShippensburg University

  2. Research objectives • Generate forecasts of urban growth in the BMR • Incorporate “drivers” of urbanization • Loosely couple with hydrologic model to capture human-environmental feedbacks CNH: Dynamic Coupling of the Water Cycle and Patterns of Urban Growth NSF award ID 0709537

  3. How SLEUTH works • Calibration 1984 Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series2010-505

  4. How SLEUTH works • Calibration 1984 1992 Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series2010-505

  5. How SLEUTH works • Calibration • Forecasting 1984 1992 2001 Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series2010-505

  6. How SLEUTH works • Calibration • Validation • Forecasting 1984 1992 2001 2006 Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series2010-505

  7. Research Design Assessing urbanization “drivers” with the exclusion layer Assessing growth rates

  8. SLEUTH’s exclusion layers

  9. Validation (unconstrained) SLEUTH’s boom and bust coefficients remain unadjusted

  10. Validation (unconstrained)

  11. But the future is expected to be different from the past Baltimore Metropolitan Council - Cooperative Forecasting Group. Round 7-B population and employment forecasts.

  12. Percent of Land as Urban 100 80 60 40 1,000 13,000 1,000 6,400 Population Intensity (residents/km2) Employment Intensity (jobs/km2) Human Intensity (humans/km2) 20 0 1,000 8,000 Baltimore Metropolitan Council - Cooperative Forecasting Group. Round 7-B population and employment forecasts.

  13. Validation (constrained) Adjust SLEUTH’s boom and bust coefficients

  14. Validation (constrained)

  15. Validation (constrained)

  16. Constraining the forecasts Baltimore Metropolitan Council - Cooperative Forecasting Group. Round 7-B population and employment forecasts.

  17. Constraining the forecasts Adjust SLEUTH’s boom and bust coefficients

  18. Constraining the forecasts

  19. Conclusions and lessons learned • SLEUTH’s calibration process can be used to evaluate “drivers” of urbanization • Validation is critical for: • Improving our understanding of how the urban system behaves • Quantifying model uncertainty • Incorporating additional models to inform SLEUTH’s forecasts

  20. References • Baltimore Metropolitan Council - Cooperative Forecasting Group. Round 7-B population and employment forecasts. • Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 2010-505 • Jantz, C.A., S.J. Goetz, P. Claggett, and D. Donato (2010). Modeling regional patterns of urbanization in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 34:1-16. • Maret, Michael (2011). Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to identify "drivers" of land use change in the Baltimore metropolitan region. Geoenvironmental research. Student white paper published at http://webspace.ship.edu/cajant/student_white_papers.html • McConnell, W.J at al. (2011). Research on Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS): Approach, Challenges, and Strategies. Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America 92 (2): 218-228 THANK YOU

  21. CNH: Dynamic Coupling of the Water Cycle and Patterns of Urban Growth Claire Welty (PI), Andrew Miller, Bernadette Hanlon, and Michael P. McGuire Claire Jantz (PI) and Scott A. Drzyzga with Michael Maret. Reed Maxwell (PI) James Smith (PI) Mary Lynn Baeck Gary Fisher NSF award ID 0709537

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