Development in the Southwest Energy, Water, Land, and Sustainability Challenges March 2010

1. Development in the Southwest Energy, Water, Land, and Sustainability Challenges March 2010 Mike Hightower Distinguished Member of the Technical Staff Sandia National Laboratories (505) 844-5499 mmhight@sandia.gov Sandia is a multi-program laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

2. Over half the world’s population will face severe water shortage in the next 50 years • In 1990, poor water supply and sanitation was the 2nd leading cause of death and disability worldwide. • In 1998, 25 million “water” refugees compared to 21 million war-related refugees . • Over 50% of world’s major rivers are dry or heavily polluted. • By 2025, 20% more fresh water will be needed for irrigation and 40% more for cities to maintain current per capita water levels. 1950 1995 Mid-latitude Mid-latitude • “Water promises to be to the 21st century what oil was to the 20th century: the precious commodity that determines the wealth of nations.” • Fortune Magazine, May 15, 2000 2025 shortage sufficiency CI_539b_10/31/00

3. Natural Resources Discussions – Often Narrowly Focused Electric Car Example: Hydrogen Car Example: CH4 + 2H2O → 4H2 + CO2

5. Electric Power Plant Major Location Selection Criteria • A traditional thermoelectric power plant is located based on four major technical criteria: • Access to a fuel supply • Access to transmission capacity • Access to a water supply for cooling water • Airshed quality • A renewable energy power plant is located based on similar technical criteria, plus: • Appropriate quality and appropriate areal extent of renewable or distributed resource (wind, geothermal, solar, biomass, hydro) • Managing intermittency of the resource (mostly wind and solar concerns)

6. Growing Limitations on Fresh Surface and Ground Water Availability • Little increase in surface water storage capacity since 1980 • Concerns over climate impacts on surface water supplies ( Based on USGS WSP-2250 1984 and Alley 2007) • Many major ground water aquifers seeing reductions in water quality and yield (Shannon 2007)

7. Most State Water Managers Expect Water Shortages Over The Next Decade Under Average Conditions Source: GAO 2003

8. Southwest Climate History

9. Growth in Thermoelectric Power Generation Projected Thermoelectric Increases (Capacity in 2025 vs 1995) • Most growth in water stressed regions • Most new plants expected to use evaporative cooling Source: NETL, 2004

10. Utility-scale Solar Energy Resources • Filtered data • Available, flat, no environmental concerns, etc. • Still tremendous resources at 6.75 kWh/m2/day • AZ 2.5 million MW • NM 1.9 million MW • CA 0.8 million MW • NV 0.7 million MW • Significantly more resources at 6.0 kWh/m2/day

11. Utility-Scale Solar Opportunities and Needs • Connected directly to transmission grid • Voltage > 69 kV • To date all PV systems are <69kV, though some are in planning • Kramer Junction Troughs are 115 kV • As of August 2008 … • CSP • 3,000 MW advanced stage of planning • 33,000 MW in CA ISO queue • 69,000 MW of applications to BLM • PV • 11,000 MW in CA ISO queue • 21,000 MW of applications to BLM • Expected CSP needs in the Southwest– 6,000-10,000 MW

12. Electric Power Generation Water Consumption

13. Electric Power Generation Cooling Options Once-Through Cooling Closed-Loop (Evaporative) Cooling Dry-Cooled Power Plant

14. Dry and Hybrid Cooling Issues and Opportunities • 90% Less water consumption • 6 % loss in production • 20% reduced capacity • at hottest hours • 10% increase in capital cost • 1-2 ¢ /kWh increase in cost of power

15. Concentrating Solar Power Technology Steam Turbine Generator Stirling Engine-Alternator Dispatchable, Integrates with Storage High Efficiency, no Storage Trough Towers Dishes • Most cost effective >250MW • Operating temp: 400C • Annual efficiency: 14% • Most cost effective >250 MW • Operating temp: 560C • Annual efficiency: 18% • Modular 30 kW units – more flexibility in siting • Operating temp: 800C • Annual efficiency: 23%

16. Options to Address Renewable Generation Intermittency and Capacity Factors Solar Resource Hourly Load CSP Generation w/ Storage Molten Salt Storage + Natural Gas Geographic Diversity of Energy Generation

17. Growing use of non-traditional water for cooling Palo Verde – largest Nuclear Power Plant in the US, uses waste water for cooling

18. Today The Future Conventional Treatment Sea Water RO Brackish NF Brackish RO Growing Use of Non-traditional Water Resources Power Requirements For Treating • Desal growing at 10% per year, waste water reuse at 15% per year • Reuse not accounted for in USGS assessments • Non-traditional water use is energy intensive (Einfeld 2007) (Modified from Water Reuse 2007, EPA 2004, Mickley 2003)

19. Non-traditional Water Resource Availability Saline Aquifers Oil and Gas Produced Water

20. Electric Power Generation Land Requirements

21. Biomass and Water Use Impacts Will be Regional

22. Water Demand/Impact of Transportation Fuels

23. The Promise of Algae-Based Biofuels Algae has potential advantages over corn, cellulosic materials, and other crops as an alternative to petroleum-based fuels Land Needed for Biofuel to Replace 50% of Current Petroleum/Diesel using oil from: Corn Soybean Algae • High biomass productivity potential • Oil feedstock for higher energy-content fuels • Can avoid competition with agricultural lands and water for food & feed production • Can use non-fresh water, resulting in reduced pressure on limited fresh water resources • Captures CO2 and recycles carbon for fuels and co-products

24. Distribution of Non-Fresh Produced Water, Saline Aquifers, and CO2 Emitter Sources Co-Location Opportunities for Algae Biofuels Production

25. Fire Frequency, Size, and Severity Are Increasing Current trends show that the number, size, and severity of forest fires has grown significantly over the past two decades • Two sources contribute: forest management practices • and climate change

26. Forest Management Contribution • Past forest and fire management practices have contributed to increased fuel loads and fire severity. • Future management practices must consider climate change impacts. (Tree Diameter) Many small trees, high intensity fires Few large trees, low intensity fires

27. Climate Change Contributions • Climate change will compound already unhealthy forest conditions • Uncertainty is high, but potential consequences are severe If trends continue, forest ecosystems in western states could be substantially reduced by 2030-2050.