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Regional Ensembles Into 2020: A Possible Vision

Regional Ensembles Into 2020: A Possible Vision. Geoff DiMego December 3, 2013 301-683-3764 geoff.dimego@noaa.gov. “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”. S R E F. S R E F. S R E F. S R E F.

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Regional Ensembles Into 2020: A Possible Vision

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  1. Regional Ensembles Into 2020:A Possible Vision Geoff DiMego December 3, 2013 301-683-3764 geoff.dimego@noaa.gov “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

  2. S R E F S R E F S R E F S R E F Hurricane Hurricane Hurricane Hurricane RTOFS RTOFS RTOFS RTOFS GEFS GEFS GEFS GEFS GDAS GDAS GDAS GDAS GFS NAMext NAMext NAMext NAMext GFS GFS GFS NMMB Storm Scale Ensemble members within CONUS and/or Alaska NMMB HRRRE members CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico ARW HRRRE members CONUS and Alaska Convective Allowing Data Assimilation – NMMB 3D URMA / RUA / AoR Convective Allowing Data Assimilation – ARW CFSv3

  3. Mesoscale Ensembles Replace Regional Deterministic Guidance

  4. Mesoscale Ensembles Replace Regional Deterministic Guidance WILL BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE

  5. Every NMMB-based member of the hourly HRRRE will have this makeup Every ARW-based member of the hourly HRRRE will have this makeup 12 km parent Run to 24 hr 1 km FireWx Run to 24 hr 3 km Alaska Run to 24 hr 3 km CONUS Run to 24 hr 3 km PR-Hisp Run to 24 hr 3 km Hawaii Run to 24 hr 1 km FireWx Run to 24 hr

  6. Every NMMB-based member of SREF (extensions of HRRRE members) will have this makeup Every ARW-based member of SREF (extensions of HRRRE members) will have this makeup 12 km parent Run from 24 to 84 hr 1 km FireWx Run from 24 to 36 hr 3 km Alaska Run from 24 to 60 hr 3 km CONUS Run from 24 to 60 hr 3 km PR-Hisp Run from 24 to 60 hr 3 km Hawaii Run from 24 to 60 hr 1 km FireWx Run from 24 to 36 hr

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