Plans and Status for 2010 Census Coverage Measurement

1. Plans and Status for 2010 Census Coverage Measurement Harland H. Shoemaker, Jr. Decennial Statistical Methods Division Prepared for: The 2007 Annual Meeting of the Census Information Centers October 10, 2007

2. 2010 Census Coverage Measurement (CCM) Goals • Help to improve coverage in future censuses • coverage error components • Understand differential coverage in the 2010 census • net coverage error

3. CCM Definitions • Coverage Error Components • Omissions • Persons or housing units not enumerated in the census, but should have been • Erroneous enumerations • Persons or housing units enumerated in the census who should not have been • Duplicates • Non-residents • Born after or died before Census Day • Enumerated in wrong location (not an issue for U.S. estimate)

4. CCM Definitions (2) • Net Coverage Error • Net error = CCM estimate – Census count • Used for persons or housing units • CCM estimate uses dual-system estimation methodology • Net error  overall undercount or overcount

5. Major CCM Research Issues • Improve measurement of Census Day residence • Improve techniques to detect and resolve duplicate census enumerations • Develop methods for measuring components of coverage error • Improve techniques to estimate net coverage error

6. CCM Program Limitations • No estimates of coverage error for persons in group quarters or for group quarters facilities • Scope for estimating how component errors relate to census operations depends on information available from the final census files

7. 2006 CCM Census Test • Included: • data collection and matching for persons only • automated person interview (PI, laptop) • people living or staying at sample address on Interview Day • paper followup • non-matches, possible matches, cases needing more information • computer and clerical matching

8. 2006 CCM Census Test (2) • Evaluated ability to determine correct Census Day residence • Tried to determine if data collected met needs for estimating components • No production of coverage estimates

9. 2008 CCM Dress Rehearsal • Will include person and housing unit operations: • Independent listing of housing units in CCM sample areas • 2 sites: San Joaquin, CA; South-Central NC • Housing unit matching to the census (preliminary address list) • computer and clerical matching • Housing unit followup (paper)

10. 2008 CCM Dress Rehearsal (2) • Automated PI (hand-held computer) • Person matching • computer and clerical • Person followup (paper) • Housing unit matching to the census (final address lists) • clerical only • Housing unit followup (final)

11. 2008 CCMDress Rehearsal (3) • Will include Operational Assessments: • Initial Housing Unit operations • Person operations • Final Housing Unit operations • Will produce estimates of coverage (limited by nature of site test) • net error • components of error

12. 2010 CCM Survey • Plan to list about 1M HUs in about 13,000 sample areas (U.S. and Puerto Rico) • Plan Person Interview in about 300,000 HUs in U.S. • (+15,000 HUs in Puerto Rico) • State sample allocation

13. 2010 CCM Survey (2) • Automated CCM person interview (hand-held computer) • Nationwide computer match for persons • to detect possible census duplicates • Produce estimates of coverage error • net error • components of error

14. ?? Questions ??

15. Thank You harland.h.shoemaker.jr@census.gov donna.l.kostanich@census.gov