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Planejamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro “Brazilian Power Sector Planning”

Planejamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro “Brazilian Power Sector Planning”. Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPE International Colloquium “Sustainability and Environmental Assessment Methodologies: The International Experience on Power Developments”

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Planejamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro “Brazilian Power Sector Planning”

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  1. Planejamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro“Brazilian Power Sector Planning” Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPE International Colloquium “Sustainability and Environmental Assessment Methodologies: The International Experience on Power Developments” “Metodologias de Avaliação Ambiental e Sustentabilidade: A Experiência Internacional na Expansão do Sistema Eletroenergético”. Recife, PE July 15th, 2009

  2. Energy Planning in Brazil

  3. Brazilian Power Sector Planning HYDROELECTRIC PREDOMINANCE LONG TRANSMISSION LINES INTENSIVE CAPITAL LONG TERM INVESTMENTS HIGH INCERTANTIES MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES COMPLEMENTARY GENERATION SEASONALITY RISK ANALYSIS FAIR TARIFF DIVERSITY INTEGRATION ENERGY SECURITY

  4. Planning Process STRATEGY VIEW LONG TERM STUDIES (30 YEARS AHEAD) NATIONAL ENERGY PLANNING NATIONA ENERGY OUTLOOK PROGRAMMING VIEW SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM STUDIES (10 YEARS AHEAD) TEN YEARS ENERGY PLANNING AUCTIONS Crude Oil and Natural Gas Electric Power Transmission Biodiesel

  5. Scenarios for Electricity 2030 (GW) Source: PNE 2030

  6. Energy in Brazil – Renewable Sources Share Source: Balanço Energético Nacional. EPE, 2006

  7. Energy Integration

  8. Storage Capacity (GWmed) Belém São Luís Fortaleza N - 12 Tocantins Natal NE - 52 Teresina João Pessoa Parnaíba Recife Maceió São Francisco Aracajú Salvador Cuiabá Brasília SE/CO - 190 Goiânia Paranaíba Belo Horizonte Campo Grande Grande Vitória Paraná/Tietê Paraíba do Sul Paranapanema Rio de Janeiro São Paulo Itaipu S - 18 Iguaçu Curitiba Uruguai Argentina Florianópolis Jacui Porto Alegre Source: ONS – oct/2007

  9. Storage Capacity Evolution

  10. Long Transmission Lines 2012 2008 4.000 km

  11. Connecting Madeira, Belo Monte and Teles Pires Plants Manaus B.Monte 2012 2014 Itacaiunas 2015 2016 2015 Teles Pires 2012 2011 2015 2013 500 km 2011 Sul Norte S.Antônio Jirau Cuiabá SE Araraquara Atibaia N.Iguaçu

  12. TransmissionLinesDistribution Existing System Planned System

  13. Hydro Power Plants

  14. A. SALES PA I, II, III PAIV São Francisco River 4317 MW

  15. Installing Hydro Power Plants RENEWAL OF OPERATION LICENSE PRIOR LICENSE INSTALLATION LICENSE OPERATION LICENSE Hydro Power Plant Life-Cycle in Brazil ENTREPRENEUR ANEEL EPE ENTREPRENEUR MME ANEEL EPE INVENTORY STUDIES AND INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL EVALUATION FEASIBILITY STUDIES AND STUDIES ON ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT QUALIFICATION AUCTION BASIC PROJECT CONSTRUCTION OPERATION 1 year 4 years > 50 years 0.5 year 2 years 1.5 year

  16. Hydro Generation- Criteria and Procedures Socio-environmentalAnalysis Scheme Socio-environmental Analysis Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Process Analysis Compatible Small delay Delay Recommended Level of Action Low Intermediate High Special

  17. Environmental Assessment of Hydroelectric Supply Assessment Scale (Level of Impact) A B C D E nonsignificant extremelysignificant lowsignificance significant highsignificance Impacts assessed socioeconomic and cultural dimension • Physic-biotical environment • socioeconomic-cultural environment Two letters represent the assessment N N Physic-biotical dimension Classification of the projectsaccording to the assessment Physic-biotic Dimension

  18. Viabilização da oferta hidroelétrica Required Level of Action Socio-environmental Classification Special Level of Action All projects with constraints to be qualified for taking part in the energy auctions Hydro supply classification according to the level of action

  19. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (GHG) Natural gas Coal Fuel oil Diesel Total Accumulated value 2008-2017 Thermal Power Plants: 296 Mt CO2eq 39 MtCO2eq.)

  20. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (GHG) GHG Emission (due to electricity production)

  21. Biomass

  22. possible expansion areas for the growing of sugar cane Expansion Perspectives for Sugar Cane Production Source: MME and MAPA apud Silvestrin in Theme Meetings at the EPE, 2006 The Ministry of the Agriculture is identifying the Brazilian land appropriated to produce sugarcane without impacting the environment.

  23. TechnicalPotential of Sugarcane Bagass Source: Tolmasquim et al (2005)

  24. Wind Power

  25. Brazilian Power Sector Brazilian Wind Power Potential • The estimated generation potential is about 31 GWmed, as much as 59% of the current energy market • Taking into account the new technologies of wind power plants and the last wind measuring in Brazil (e.g. Atlas Eólico do Espírito Santo, Jun, 6th 2009), the total installed capacity can be higher than 300 GW.

  26. Ø 112m 4.500 kW Ø 70m 1.500 kW Ø 46m 600 kW Ø 37m 500 kW Ø 30m 300 kW Ø 15m 50 kW 1985 1989 1992 1994 1998 2000 Evolution of Wind Power Technology Sources: Kuik, 2002 Kujava, 2003, apud Tolmasquim et al (2005)

  27. Nuclear Energy

  28. Nuclear Energy in the World: Uranium Resources - 2003 • In 2003, the 77% of the conventional resources, with cost under US$ 130/kg U, were located in 7 countries (Brazil is the 6th) Source: INB, AIEA

  29. Nuclear Power Potential in Brazil Assumptions Lifetime: 40 years Capacity Factor: 85%

  30. Greenhouse Gas Emissions [g CO2-equiv. / kWh] (*) LIGNITE COAL OIL NATURAL GAS SOLAR PV HYDRO POWER BIOMASS WIND NUCLEAR Source: IEA (2004) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 * Taking into account the lifecycle emissions

  31. Auction of “New” Energy

  32. The Auction Process Ten Years Energy Planning Technical Assessment of Energy Sources Utilities’ Commitment to Buy Energy List of Plants Qualified to Sell Energy Energy Auction

  33. A-5 A-4 A-3 A-2 A-1 A Power Auctions Power Purchase Agreement from New Plants Law 10.848/2002 Auctions of “A-5” and “A-3” PPA with a term of 15 to 35 years Purchase in “A-3” limited to 2% of the load from “A-5” Purchase in “A-5” Hydro Plant Paulo Afonso/Bahia

  34. Belém São Luís Fortaleza Natal Teresina João Pessoa Recife Maceió Aracajú Salvador Cuiabá Brasília Goiânia Belo Horizonte Campo Grande Vitória Rio de Janeiro São Paulo Curitiba Florianópolis Porto Alegre BILATERAL CONTRACTS Power Auctions PPA

  35. Santo Antônio Hydro Power Plant - Madeira River Illustrative Design General Data Installed Capacity : 3,150.4 MW Turbine: Bulbo Unities: 44 Unity Power Potential: 71.6 MW Firm Energy: 2,218 MWmed Energy Auction December 10th, 2007 Energy Price - ACR 78.87 R$/MWh or 46.95 US$/MWh* Site 10 *1,68 R$ = 1,00 US$

  36. Jirau Hydro Power Plant – Madeira River General Data Installed Capacity : 3,300 MW Turbine: Bulbo Unities: 44 Unity Power Potential: 75 MW Firm Energy: 1,975.3 MW médios Energy Auction May 19th, 2008 Energy Price - ACR 71.37 R$/MWh or 42.48 US$/MWh * *1,68 R$ = 1,00 US$

  37. Historical of Energy Auction 2005 2006 2007 2008 dec/05 – 1º “New” Energy Auction jun/06 – 2º “New” Energy Auction (A-3) oct/06 – 3º “New” Energy Auction (A-5) jun/07 – 1º Alternative Energy Auction jul/07 – 4º “New” Energy Auction (A-3) oct/07 – 5º “New” Energy Auction (A-5) dec/07 – 1º SP Auction - UHE Sto Antônio may/08 – 2º SP Auction - UHE Jirau - 1º Reserve Energy Auction jul/08 – 5º “New” Energy Auction (A-3) oct/08 – 6º “New” Energy Auction (A-5) 38

  38. 2009 - Energy Auction 2009 aug/09 – 7º “New” Energy Auction (A-3) oct/09 – 3º SP Auction - UHE Belo Monte nov/09 - 2º Reserve Energy Auction dec/09 – 8º “New” Energy Auction (A-5) 39

  39. Annual Capacity Growth (MW)

  40. To supply energy at fair prices to develop the country following the principles of sustainable growth CHALLENGE

  41. Empresa de Pesquisa Energética - EPE Av. Rio Branco nº 1 11º andar Centro Rio de Janeiro Thanks for your attention!

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