Value Creation: from Value Chain to Revenue Management 價值再創新：從產業價值鍊 談到企業營收管理 November 15, 2005 Taipei, Taiwan

1. Value Creation: from Value Chain to Revenue Management價值再創新：從產業價值鍊 談到企業營收管理November 15, 2005Taipei, Taiwan Chou-Hong Chen (陳周宏), Ph.D. Professor and Coordinator of MIS School of Business, Gonzaga University Spokane, WA 99223 USA chen@jepson.gonzaga.edu

2. Outline of the Topic • Stages of E-Business • Internet Impact on Economy and Industry • Value Creation • Business Models and Value Chain • Applications • Revenue Management • Models and Applications • Conclusion

3. Stages of Moving to E-Business Wilcocks, Sauer and Associates (2000)

4. IT-producing industries share of economy Percent

5. Distribution of Internet Users Worldwide

6. Internet Penetration by Country

7. Distribution of users by language. Online language populations (total 680,000,000 as of September, 2003)

8. Impact of e-commerce on selected industries: manufacturing (based on figures from US Census Bureau)

9. Impact of e-commerce on selected industries: wholesale (based on figures from US Census Bureau)

10. Impact of e-commerce on selected industries: services (based on figures from US Census Bureau)

11. Industry Profitability, 1981-2001 Industry ROE ROA 1. Pharmaceuticals 25.87% 10.27% 2. Chemicals and allied products 21.70 7.88 3. Food and kindred products 24.78 7.25 4. Printing and publishing 16.30 6.68 5. Rubber and miscellaneous plastic 15.07 6.25 6. Fabricated metal products 19.00 5.58 7. Paper and allied products 13.77 4.70 8. Electronics and electrical equipment (no computers) 9.63 4.67 9. Nonferrous metals 10.39 4.23 10. Machinery, except electrical 15.69 3.80 11. Petroleum and coal products 13.25 3.76 12. Textile mill products 5.11 3.71 13. Aircraft, guided missiles, and parts 14.02 3.57 14. Stone, clay, and glass products 9.16 3.44 15. Motor vehicles and equipment 11.91 3.16 16. Iron and steel 6.40 3.14 17. Airlines (transportation by air) 2.68 2.05 Source: Compustat. Grant explored ROEs for these industries for the years 1985-1997: R. M. Grant, Contemporary Strategy Analysis: Concepts, Techniques, Applications (Oxford, U. K.: Blackwell, 2002) p. 68.

12. Firm Profitability, 1981-2001 Firm ROA Firm ROA Pharmaceuticals Airlines Bristol Myers Squibb 13.71% Southwest Airlines 4.85% Merck 13.37 AMR 1.51 Schering Plough 12.89 Delta Airlines 1.50 WYETH American Home Products 12.52 UAL 0.96 Eli Lilly 10.23 US Air 0.31 Pfizer 9.66 America West Holdings -3.27 Pharmacia & Upjohn 7.98 Continental Airlines -4.97 American Cyanamid 3.57 TWA -5.37 Northwest Airlines -3.40 Source: Compustat

13. Determinants of Profitability WHY? Business Models

14. Customer Value Relative Positioning (influence) • Competitive forces (coopetitors) • Suppliers • Customers • Rivalry • Threat of Entry • Substitutes • Complementors Firm’s Decisions 1. Differentiation 2. Low-cost Cooperating to Create Value Revenue

15. Why New Models? • We need some new models • for how we go about exploring IT for competitive advantage, • for IT infrastructure how we create it and manage it • for how we acquire, manage and deploy the skills that are needed to run that infrastructure • Profitability (making money)

16. Striving for Competitive Advantage • Firm level: Industry & Competitive Analysis • Competitive Forces Model • Competitive Strategy • D’Aveni’s Hypercompetition Model (New 7Ss) • Business level • Value-Chain Analysis

17. NEW MARKET ENTRANTS SUBSTITUTE PRODUCTS & SERVICES • Switching cost • Access to distribution channels • Economies of scale • Redefine products and services • Improve price/performance INDUSTRY COMPETITORS THE FIRM • Cost-effectiveness • Market access • Differentiation of product or service • Buyer selection • Switching costs • Differentiation • Selection of suppler • Threat of backward integration SUPPLIERS CUSTOMERS PORTER’S FIVE COMPETITIVE FORCES MODEL Threats Bargaining power

18. Porter’s Model vs. Hypercompetition Model

19. Porter’s Generic Strategy Framework – 3 Strategies for achieving Competitive Advantage Competitive Advantage Uniqueness Perceived by Customer Lower Cost Position Industry-wide (Broad Target) Overall Cost Leadership Differentiation Competitive Scope Particular Segment only (Narrow Target) Focus Competitive Mechanism

20. 扰乱的愿景 • 通过理解下列各项确定并创造暂时优势的机会： • 利益相关着的满意度 (satisfaction) • 战略前瞻 (strategic soothsaying) • 目标是确定为现有客户更好地服务的新的方式和为现在是其他公司的客户的新客户的服务方式。 扰乱市场 (Market Disruption) • 扰乱的战术 • 抓住获得优势的主动，通过： • 改变规则 (shifting rules for competition) • 发出信号(signaling strategic intent) • 同时和渐进的战略攻击(strategic thrust) • 与形成，定型，或影响竞争对手的反应 • 方向或特点的行动一起。 • 扰乱的能力 • 通过开发以下的灵活的能力保持势头： • 速度 (positioning for speed) • 惊异 (positioning for surprise) • 可以在所有建立暂时优势的行动中应用 D’Aveni’s 扰乱理论及7-Ss Old 7Ss: structure, strategy, system, style, skills, staff, and shared-values.

21. Example: • At General Electric, Jack Welch, implemented a DYB (“Destroy Your Business”) approach by placing employees in the shoes of competitors to highlight weaknesses and find fresh ways of meeting customer needs. • Similarly GE’s Medical Systems Division used DYB (and GYB strategy) to respond to the challenges posed by the Internet. • Speed, • Stakeholder satisfaction • Strategic Soothsaying • Shifting the rules

22. 锋尚国际公寓案例 • 告别空调暖气时代 • 按照使用面积售房 • 招收 中共党员

23. Porter’s Model vs. Hypercompetition Model

24. Competitive (Value) Advantage The Value Chain: Process View of the Firm

25. The Value System • The value chain model can be extended by linking many value chains into a value system. • Much of the advantage of supply chain management comes from understanding how information is used within each value chain of the system. • This can lead to the formation of entire new businesses designed to change the information component of value-added activities.

26. Downstream value The Value System: Interconnecting relationships between organizations Firm value Upstream value

27. Business Strategies and its Competitive Advantage Uniqueness Perceived by Customer Lower Cost Position Industrywide (Broad Target) Cost Leadership Differentiation Alliance Innovation Growth Competitive Scope Particular Segment only (Narrow Target) Cost Focus Differentiation Focus Knowledge-based economy Industrial economy Competitive Mechanism

28. Business Models and Revenue Management • The framework for making money. • It is the set of activities which a firm performs, how it performs them, and when it performs them so as to offer its customers benefits they want and to earn a profit.

29. Formulates Executes Business Models and Revenue Management (Business Model) • Industry Factors • Competitive forces • Cooperative forces • Industry value drivers create and appropriate value Firm Profitability FIRM-SPECIFIC FACTORS • Positions • Customer value • Market segments • Revenue sources • Relative positioning ACTIVITIES Resources Costs Which, How, When Value Chain (Business Systems) Value Systems

30. When to Perform Activities • Two firms can perform similar activities in similar ways but still end up with business models whose profitabilities are different if the timing of when they perform the activities is different. • First-mover advantage • Windows of opportunities • periods within which some activities are best performed

31. First major move Customer acceptance Competitor catch-up moves First-mover expansion moves Keen’s Six-Stage Competitive Advantage Model Stimulus for action Commoditization

32. Relationship between profits and time of market introduction 300 Profits relative to competitions (%) 250 200 150 100 50 0 Time of market introduction relative to competition (months)

33. Advantages • Build brand recognition • Control scarce resources • Establish networks • Early Economies-of-Scale • Disadvantages • Newer technology • Higher development costs • Reverse engineering by competitors When to Perform Activities • First Movers

34. Case Example: Wal-Mart • Analysis: Which, How, and When in Wal-Mart’s Success • Which: • moved into small towns that its competitors shunned • How: • Wal-Mart saturated contiguous towns and built distribution centers and logistics systems • When: • First mover advantage by capturing scarce resources, locations, and loyal employees and customers

35. Revenue Management(a.k.a. yield management) 開源或節流 ?

36. Revenue Management (RM) • RM focuses companies on revenue growth, not cost-cutting and downsizing. • RM drives bottom-line increases through top-line improvements. • Growth comes from the marketplace, not the workforce. • The key to real growth is learning how to deal effectively and proactively with a constantly changing markets.

37. Revenue Management (RM) vs. MIS • MIS deliver • the right information, to the right people • at the right time, with the right form • RM is to sell • the right product, to the right customer • at the right time, for the right price • Thereby maximizing revenue from a company’s products

38. Examples on Revenue Management • A No-Tech approach to RM • Barbershop • A Low-Tech approach to RM • Opera House • A High-Tech approach to RM • Airlines

39. Other Examples • Hotel • Car rental • Golf • Broadcasting • Shipping • Restaurant • Etc. How about in Taiwan? 因應競爭台鐵擬採彈性票價

40. Some U.S. airline industry observations • Since deregulation (1978) 137 carriers have filed for bankruptcy. • From 95-99 (the industry’s best 5 years ever) airlines earned 3.5 cents on each dollar of sales: • The US average for all industries is around 6 cents. • From 90-99 the industry earned 1 cent per $ of sales. • Carriers typically fill 72.4% of seats and have a break-even load of 70.4%.

41. Matching supply to demand when supply is fixed • Examples of fixed supply: • Travel industries (fixed number of seats, rooms, cars, etc). • Advertising time (limited number of time slots). • Telecommunications bandwidth. • Size of the MBA program. • Doctor’s availability for appointments. • Revenue management is a solution: • If adjusting supply is impossible – adjust the demand! • Segment customers into high willingness to pay and low willingness to pay. • Limit the number of tickets sold at a low price, i.e., control the average price by changing the mix of customers.

42. Revenue management and margin arithmetic • Small changes in revenue can have a big impact on profit, especially for high gross margin and low net profit % industries:

43. Ugly reality: cancellations and no-shows • Approximately 50% of reservations get cancelled at some point in time. • In many cases (car rentals, hotels, full fare airline passengers) there is no penalty for cancellations. • Problem: • the company may fail to fill the seat (room, car) if the passenger cancels at the very last minute or does not show up. • Solution: • sell more seats (rooms, cars) than capacity. • Danger: • some customers may have to be denied a seat even though they have a confirmed reservation.

44. Conclusion • Value creation and business models • Revenue management and overbooking give demand flexibility where supply flexibility is not possible. • Concept and powerful tools to improve revenue: • American Airlines estimated a benefit of $1.5B over 3 years. • National Car Rental faced liquidation in 1993 but improved via yield management techniques. • Delta Airlines credits yield management with $300M in additional revenue annually (about 2% of year 2000 revenue.)

45. The Twenty-first Century will ... • The twenty-first century will witness only two kinds of companies: • those that exploit Information Technology (IT) • those that are out of business

46. Revenue Management • If you are interested in the issues of RM • International Journal of Revenue Management • http://www.inderscience.com/ijrm