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Ozone and PM 2.5 verification in NAM-CMAQ modeling system at NCEP in relation to WRF/NMM meteorology evaluation

Ozone and PM 2.5 verification in NAM-CMAQ modeling system at NCEP in relation to WRF/NMM meteorology evaluation . Marina Tsidulko, Jeff McQueen, Pius Lee Geoff DiMego, Michel Ek NOAA/NCEP/EMC. CMAS, 2 October, 2007. Forecast Domains (2005-2007). 259 grid cells. CONUS “5x” Domain

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Ozone and PM 2.5 verification in NAM-CMAQ modeling system at NCEP in relation to WRF/NMM meteorology evaluation

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  1. Ozone and PM 2.5 verification in NAM-CMAQ modeling system at NCEP in relation to WRF/NMM meteorology evaluation Marina Tsidulko, Jeff McQueen, Pius Lee Geoff DiMego, Michel Ek NOAA/NCEP/EMC CMAS, 2 October, 2007

  2. Forecast Domains (2005-2007) 259 grid cells • CONUS “5x” Domain • WRF-CMAQ • WRF-CMAQ/PM East “3x” Domain 268 grid cells

  3. NCEP-EPA AQ SYSTEM NAM (WRF-NMM) Tighter coupling with more parameters transfered from NAM

  4. CMAQ and NAM Changes Summer 2007 CONUS 8-Hr Max BIAS May 1 Sep 8

  5. CONUS FHO Ozone statistics 5X Sub-Regions 8-Hr Max July 20 – Aug 25 South-West North-East Lower Miss Valley HIT Rate

  6. 5X Sub-Regions CONUS 8-Hr Max BIAS LA under-prediction

  7. July 3rd 5 PM, 36 hour Forecasts: Wind 10m & Temp 2m NAM Verification: BIAS July 1-15, 2007, SWC NAM NAM has stronger winds, Warmer temperature and Strong dry bias Wind RTMA Dew point Temp

  8. 2007: other cases Of under-prediction And over-prediction NE Over-prediction LA Under-prediction Lower Miss Valley Over-prediction

  9. PBL HEIGHT ESTIMATION IN MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS How good is PBL depth in the models? How we can verify it? - internal model parameter - no good measurements on regular basis After change to ACM2 CMAQ: Critical Richardson Number (with fluxes) RADIOSONDES: Critical Richardson number (surface fluxes set to zero) NAM: TKE scheme Post + Ri Number (no fluxes) VERIFICATION RiCR= 0.25 (Vogelezang and Holtslag, 1996)

  10. PBL Verification System TKE PBL Model output Observations NAM Mix Layer Ht PBL height RAOB Ri PBL/no fluxes Profiler CMAQ Ri PBL/fluxes Aircraft GFS PBL calculation Grib Format BUFR format Forecast Verification System Statistics Eastern US 1120 800 480 July 20-27, 2006

  11. PBL Depth July 1 – Sep 2, 2007 Eastern US Western US TKE PBL RI PBL RAOBS Central US

  12. TKE PBL andRI PBLVerification TKE PBL RI PBL RAOBS

  13. TKE, RI and MODRI PBL depth TKE PBL is higher Some features exist only in TKE PBL

  14. TKE, RI and MODRI PBL depth differences

  15. CA: MODRI PBL is higher than RI PBL, and at some locations It is higher than TKE PBL

  16. TKE PBL RI PBL MODRI PBL

  17. TKE PBL RI PBL MODRI PBL Over-prediction – low PBL?

  18. PBL Verification for retrospective tests: July 20-27, 2006 2800 1120 2400 800 2000 1600 480 Eastern US Western US 2200 TKE PBL overprediction MX Height 1800 TKE PBL RI PBL 1400 RAOBS Central US

  19. 12 hr PBL verification from launcher runs; Valid 00z Oakland CA San Diego CA July 20-27, 2006

  20. TexAQS 2006 RAOBS: SHREVEPORT, LA Profiler: Lonlview, TX

  21. TexAQS 2006 (Measurements provided by Jim Wilczak)

  22. Preliminary PM2.5 verification CMAQ forecast Starting 06Z 5 Aug, 2006: 24 hours average AIRNOW: Daily 24-Hour AQI: Particles (PM2.5): Daily 24-Hour AQI, (midnight to midnight ) 1 – 50Good 51 – 100Moderate 101 – 150Unhealthy forSensitive Group

  23. Summary and Future Work • OZONE: • Ozone bias improved in experimental 5x CMAQ • CMAQ has negative bias over SW sub-domain, especially LA • LA under-predictions could be related to NAM meteorology • PBL: • Ri number based PBL is added to Verification System at NCEP • PLANS: • Add Aircraft (ACARS) data to PBL Verification (much more frequent than twice/day RAOBS data) • Add Mixed Layer Height and ModRi based PBL to Verification • Add PM 2.5 to Verification

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