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HYCOM for Ocean Modeling at NCEP

HYCOM for Ocean Modeling at NCEP. Carlos Lozano MMAB/EMC/NCEP April 23 2007. context. Operational oceanography components and activities are distributed within and across institutions. Observational Systems Numerical models: physical, bio-geochemical, waves, etc. Assimilation schemes

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HYCOM for Ocean Modeling at NCEP

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  1. HYCOM for Ocean Modelingat NCEP Carlos Lozano MMAB/EMC/NCEP April 23 2007

  2. context • Operational oceanography components and activities are distributed within and across institutions. • Observational Systems • Numerical models: physical, bio-geochemical, waves, etc. • Assimilation schemes • Distribution of data • Services • Integration and coordination within each component and across components is necessary for progress.

  3. (Some) attributes of a model for operations • Robust and efficient for operations • Skill to represent processes of interest • Modular and amenable to improvement • Active and productive community working for the model (class). • Proven efficient and accurate integrated • Parameterizations of not resolved processes • Data assimilation schemes • Pertinent inter-disciplinary models

  4. Models at NCEP • Climate Outlook: • Atmosphere-Ocean coupled model: MOM and GFS • 3DVar (Rosati-Derber) • Short Term Forecast • NW Atlantic: POM; OI. • Atlantic Sector: HYCOM; 3DVar

  5. Ocean Forecast Systems:Immediate Objectives • Routine estimation of the ocean state [T, S, u, w, ssh]. • Daily 0-4 week forecast • Every 5 years, re-analysis • Help to improve estimation in (nested) sub-domains • Help to improve the estimation of the atmosphere state • In short term global forecast • In short term regional forecast • Hurricane • US regional • Help to improve the estimation of chemical components (water quality) and organisms distributions in the water(ecosystems).

  6. Ocean Forecast Systems:general configurations • Ocean standalone Global Basin(*) and sub-basin systems for the Atlantic and Pacific(**)(0-1 week) • Coupled Global atmosphere-ocean (***) (0-4 weeks) • Event driven coupled regional atmosphere-ocean (0-1 week) Tropical and extra-tropical storms • Event driven coupled ocean physical-bio-geochemical (0-4 weeks). • Event driven coupled ocean physical-physical (0-1 week). *Eddy permitting to eddy resolving, **Eddy resolving, ***Replacing standalone.

  7. WRF-HYCOM Coupling Strategy Atmosphere: • WRF coarse domain one way nested to GFS. • WRF fine Hurricane tracking domain two way nested to WRF coarse. • WRF coarse domain configuration is changed every forecast cycle: ‘jumping grid’. Ocean: • HYCOM regional one way nested to RTOFS. • HYCOM regional domain configuration is changed every forecast cycle: ‘jumping grid’. Ocean-Atmosphere: • Two way information exchange in over-lapping region.

  8. And some final examples in integration • Integrated software infra-structure. • Across institutions • Common protocols for • Model and forecast validation • Monitoring and diagnostics • Ensemble forecasts • multiple realizations • multiple models • multiple institutions • Adaptive sampling [model, data assimilation, observing system]

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