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Industry Presentation. A Perspective to Consider 25 Aug 04 Craig Johnston, Mahesh Reddy, Tom McLaulin, Andy Bonnot. Agenda. Market Perspective Best Value Overview Staffing and Security Clearance Issues Controversial Points. “Changing” Corporate Environments. Focus on Value
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Industry Presentation A Perspective to Consider 25 Aug 04 Craig Johnston, Mahesh Reddy, Tom McLaulin, Andy Bonnot
Agenda • Market Perspective • Best Value Overview • Staffing and Security Clearance Issues • Controversial Points
“Changing” Corporate Environments • Focus on Value • A Stock Market Imperative • Why? If you don’t “create” value, you whither & die • The Aerospace Industry “competition” – the whole market! • Value has Multiple elements • Many Traditional Metrics are incomplete (e.g. ROS, EPS, …) • Many Outside an Enterprise control it (e.g. economy, tax-rates, mutual fund mgrs, disruptive technologies, …) • Key Value Drivers • Return on Invested Capital – “Efficiency” • Weighted Average Cost of Capital – “Minimum Expectations” • Growth – “Staying Power” • ROIC must be greater than WACC to create Value Corporations Must Create Value for the Shareholders
WACC “Minimum Expectations” Equities Premium vs Bonds 11.0% 76 yr Historical Average 12.3% “Risk Adjusted” Stock 9.1% “Debt Adjusted” Return 7.9% Average Company Aerospace Gets a Break on Risk Pay Your Debtors First – Cash Helps Weighted Average Cost of Capital – WACC“LM Example”
Stock Market Responds to Value Value created when Company invests funds better than Financial Competitors
Moore’s Law Major Acquisition Process ATF1983 YF-221st Flt1991 F/A-221st Flt 2000 IOC 2005 Micro 2000 Pentium 500 10M 18 Years 1M 25 AMRAAM 1977 - 1991 80386 18 Months 80486 Transistors Mips JSFX-35 1st Flt 2001 F-35 IOC 2008 100K 1.0 80286 8080 10K 0.10 8086 4004 A-121983-1991 0.01 75 80 85 90 95 AFX 1991-1994 JAST 1994-1996 Processing Speed Doubles Every 18 Months Airframe Service Life A-12 IOC F-35 JSF Selection 1982 2001 2008 U-2S 1st Flt U-2A 81 Years XC-130 C-130J 1st Flt 1st Flt B-52A B-52H 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2001 2031 National Military Strategy ? Pre-emption 1-4-2-1 SSCs 9/11 2 MRCs Counter-Soviet Expansion 1 – 8 Years The Challenge
Theme: Best Value Awards and Contracts • Best Value vs Lowest Cost Affords • A sustainable contract for both Govt & Industry • Provides inherent flexibility to address real and emerging Warfighter capability needs • The right underpinning of SE and disciplined processes • Flexibility in evolution/spiral dev/tech insertion • A healthy company • A practical approach to LCC & TCO • Acknowledges and accommodates political realities • Small/Disadvantaged businesses
Best Value Solutions • Requires • Good JCIDS (requirements definition) • Commitment to pay the bill for professional SSEB participation • Good BCA benchmark • Contracting approach (type and incentives) • Provides • Mature risk analysis • Realistic basis for award decision • Appropriate staffing • Security clearances • Professional diversity and depth • Supportability of long term funding • Partnership & Pride • Through the good and the bad
Risk Avoidance Lowest Cost Contracts Over Cost Start of a new dev cycle ROI/ROA Realistic Assessment • IPT/OIPT • Opportunities • Issue • AAR • Plans & Schedules Market Position Cultural Needs Preservation IB Profit Sustainment/Follow on Work Group Political necessity Speed--Combat/Threat Necessity Growth Pride in Performance Team Work Partnership Should These be Common Perspectives?
IPT/OIPT • Opportunities • Issue • AAR • Plans & Schedules Team Work Where & When Does It Start? What is the Substance? We Understand the Issues--do we make a difference? Partnership Technology isn’t the Challenge---It’s Communications, Understanding & Relationships • Market Survey • ICE/BCA • Pre RFP Prep • Contract Design • Contract Kick Off Meeting • MSD’s • QPR’s • OIPT’s • Daily Operations • Realistic Proposals • Relevant Metrics • Telling it like it is • Honesty & Integrity at all levels • Mutual Respect • Sharing Credit & Blame • Hard Work • Empowerment, Mentoring, Training • Smart & Useable Practices and Processes
Staffing / Security Challenges • Staffing ramp up and realism • Core Team • Recruiting • Key personnel • Economy dependent: Commercial vs. Gov’t Business • Aging Work Force • Security Clearance Issues*: • DoD Taking Longer To Review Industry Security Clearance Requests, GAO says - Defense Daily 5/11/04 • ~ 2 million Security clearances issued by DoD as of Sept 30, 2003 (34% held by industry) • Clearance backlog ~ 188,000 • 101,000 backlogged investigations; 61,000 reinvestigations, 25,000 awaiting adjudication • Waiting period for security clearance • Average 90 day has ballooned into 400 to 500 days • “Such delays prevent personnel from beginning or continuing work on classified programs & activities , hinder industrial contractors from hiring most experienced & best qualified personnel, increase the time needed to complete national security-related contracts & increase costs to the Federal Government,” Greg Wilshusen said May 6th in prepared testimony to the House Committee on Government Reform • Workers with security clearance earning 15 to 25 % higher salaries (Washington Times 5/06/04) • Clearance not always accepted across the Government, causing further delays in carrying out contracts
Controversial Points • Industry value perspective – shareholder focus • R&D, Maturity of technology • Trappers & Skinners or Partners? • We can give you any answer you want but will you love us tomorrow? • Capture Team Leaders (Trappers) are frequently different folks from the company PM (Skinner): • Different skill set: Business Development vs. Execution focus • Frequently changed at contract award: Hand-off to the Skinner • Government counterparts need to understand what motivates and how to partner with both types • Sometimes they are the same person • Ideal situation is where industry puts both individuals on the capture team – best continuity • Make sure you understand the difference between Business Development/Strategy and Marketing
Controversial Points • Political VS Best Value Source Selection • Clearly some Source Selection decisions are political: keep in mind all of the contractors have typically spent a lot of Sales Expense/Bid-and-Proposal $$s on their preparation and submittal – it hurts to loose • SDD programs are a necessary evil • A lot of ‘fun’ but represents to the contractor team the highest risk phase of a product life cycle • The competitions are brutal and inherently introduce high risk propositions to win • This is where we typically put our star PMs, engineers, etc. • FRP is what industry really wants • Product is typically stable and predictable • Highest profit opportunity • Predictable business, jobs • Opportunity for FMS/DCS • Can there ever really be Govt/Industry Partnership? • Should there be more Industry exposure to government PMOs/PEOs – 1 yr assignment of an industry Proj. Mgr on a Gov’t acquisition team? • ‘Up or Out’: How do you succeed as an acquisition professional? • Does that put you on a collision course with your industry counterpart?
Controversial Points • Industry value perspective – shareholder focus • R&D, Maturity of technology • Trappers & Skinners or Partners? • Political VS Best Value Source Selection • SDD programs are a necessary evil • Can there ever really be Govt/Industry Partnership? • ‘Up or Out’: How do you succeed as an acquisition professional?