How do I predict

1. How do I predict the future of the church?

3. What do we do with old 1st Church downtown? Strengths • 300,000 members • 2,000 ministers • 6,000 buildings • Strong engagement with community • 26% of Methodists involved in community work Weaknesses • Sustained decline for 100 years • Reluctance to engage in evangelism • Elderly age profile • Little prospect of biological growth • Public image of Church & Christianity

4. British Methodism Membership < half – infrastructure largely the same! 90’s 24% less members, 13% less churches

5. 6000 Churches 600 Circuits 32 Districts 2000 Churches 200 Circuits 12 Districts Roger Dawe’s prescription C of E 1.2m worshippers – 16000 Churches Methodism 0.3m worshippers – 6000 Churches Same ratio as C of E – 4000 churches We need to be more radical than we’ve yet dared to be!

6. World in which we minister • A - Churchgoing population 8-10% • B - Fringe 10% • C - Dechurched 40% • 20% open • 20% closed • D - Unchurched 40% • What’s your background? Richter & Francis, Gone But Not Forgotten, pp138-9

7. Surveying Spiritual Britain 76% of New Christians Come from 25% De-Churched finding faith today 1992 Non-churched Approx 60% This section of the population is older and decreasing over time De-churched Approx 25% The younger, largely non-churched are more likely to identify as ‘spiritual’ not religious Hay and Hunt 2000 Approx 15% Steve Hollinghurst January 2004

8. 3 types of churches • Dying churches • Only ministering to section A • ‘Life in the old dog yet!’ churches • Ministering effectively to B & sometimes C • Church plants reach C • Resurrection churches • Reaching out towards D • No-one is doing this effectively yet!

9. Dying churches • Face death honestly • Die with dignity • No resuscitation • Let go • let go burden for those keeping them alive. • Celebrate life • They didn’t fail! • Leave an appropriate legacy

10. Life in the old dog yet! • Experience more than energy • Need to go beyond the fringe to the open dechurched. • Fresh expressions of church • 30-40 a year – rapid growth • Double/triple in 2-3 years • Hippy generation most reachable? • Good parents to the next generation • Controlling or empowering? • Especially to the pioneers

11. A welcoming church • Visited 18 churches • Sat near front • After service, walk to back & then back to front (by different aisle) • Smiled, tried to initiate conversation • Stayed for coffee if it was offered

12. Smile Greeting Exchange names Invite to another service Introduced to another person Invited to meet pastor 10 points 10 points 100 points 200 points 1000 points 2000 points A welcoming church?

13. How did they do? • 11 out of 18 earned less than 100 points • 5 received less than 20 points • Free food for students • 3 people remembered name, college & course

14. What is a circuit?

15. What are its responsibilities • The (preaching) plan • Visitation (of the local churches) • Meetings • Doctrinal Preaching • Preparation for Membership • Pastoral Care • Benevolence Fund • Removals (of ministers and deacons) • Appointments CPD assumes a Christendom model

16. What does it look like (cont)? Assumptions: • All churches serve the whole of a local geographic community • All churches have a holistic ministry • Role of a circuit is to administrate this well and allocate shared resources (ministers & finances!)

17. Trad church Trad church Trad Church Youth Church Trad church Trad church Cell Church Seeker Sensitive

18. Working out the mess! Assumptions • Mission is the imperative • All churches are not the same • Communities are not all geographic • Circuit resources can be deployed in lots of ways (principally lay people!)

19. Alternative worship communities Base Ecclesial Communities Café Church Cell Church Community initiatives Multiple & mid-week congregations Network-focused churches School-based churches Seeker Church Traditional Church plants Traditional forms – new interest Youth Congregations What are some possibilities?(Mission Shaped Church)

20. Reality Check! • Most FEs describe themselves in at least three of the above categories. • Format is not the best way of categorising FEs. • When MSC working group formed this movement was just beginning to gather momentum – it’s very new • 90s - ~10 church plants a year, now ~30-40 FEs a year – momentum still growing • Understanding what’s happening is going to be difficult for a while! • Explosion of ethnic churches – should be most significant shaper of Church in Britain

21. What is Church planting? • Church planting is the process by which a seed of the life and message of Jesus embodied by a community of Christians is immersed for mission reasons in a particular cultural or geographic context. • The intended consequence is that it roots there, coming to life as a new indigenous body of Christian disciples well suited to continue in mission

22. Ways in to a fresh expression Worship Community Mission

23. There will be burning faith and conviction, a real passion for the gospel and a desire to share it. They will be churches with a vision, where people, seeing beyond themselves, catch glimpses of a new world. They will be communities of belonging, where relationships and not rules set the agenda. They will be places of embrace, where a special welcome will be given to the poor, the marginalised and those ostracised by society. In such communities people will learn how to respect others, work for justice caring for the earth and all its creatures. Real demands will be expected of their members who will pray, study the scriptures and disciple each other as they seek ‘to obey all that Jesus commanded’. They will be places which encourage imagination, inculturation, exploration and risk-taking. They will often be counter-cultural communities. Into the Far Country, Tom Stuckey, p134-5

24. Identifying with Jesus Transforming secular space Living as community Welcoming the stranger Serving with generosity Participating as producers Producers not consumers Creating as created beings Creation not re-packaging Leading as a body Merging ancient and contemporary spiritualities Nine missiologically significant patterns Emerging Church, Eddie Gibbs & Ryan Bolger

25. Why Church Planting Today? Effective • 369 plants, 10000 people >26000 in 3-4 years • 30% growth per annum! • Some stick others keep growing • 64% new – 17% relocated; 14% recommitted; 18% new converts; 15% fringe • Most rapid growth when team < 10 members • It reaches people outside churches • Less painful than transitioning

26. Church Planting – general trends • Network as important as neighbourhood • Small groups/cells + celebration • Experience – don’t rush to explanation • Willingness to live doubt & be on a journey • One size doesn’t fit all

27. How do we go forward • Three strands in Acts • Strategy • Apostolic band, trade route, synagogue, god-fearers, gentiles • Accidents • Deacons, Athens • Holy Spirit • Macedonia (Acts 16) • Always one step beyond

28. Four P’s • Pioneers • Paul, Barnabas, Priscilla & Aquila etc • They’ll do it anyway! • Permission givers • Peter @ Jerusalem council • Vital role in ‘middle management’ of Church • Established at highest levels in British Methodism • Preservers • James? • Need to be listened to – preserve orthodoxy • Protesters • Circumcision party - loved but ignored • Can’t separate Christianity & culture

29. Fifth P • Outside Church • Person of peace (Luke 10 etc)

30. Theological Assumptions • One size does not fit all (‘a’ church not ‘the’ church) • Ecclesiology shaped by missiology • Relational & incarnational more important than institutional & attractional • Need to create Christian movements not just Christian communities • Re-imagining role of apostle, prophet & evangelist (Ephesians 4) • Traditional models of church are part of the problem (especially when they think they’re the whole answer!)

31. Random thoughts • Fresh expressions are still provisonal • Most churches are only capable of doing mission to the de-churched • Still considerable mileage in this approach • Who are your pioneers? • New converts are the most likely to be able to think outside the box – do we ‘program’ them before trusting them? • How can they be released & resourced • How does an institution manage entrepreneurs who work relationally

32. Questions • How many different communities can you identify in your circuits? • What are appropriate mission responses to those communities? • Are there fresh ways of being church that might be appropriate?

33. Looking at it from a different angle • Don’t start with church (& definitely not church buildings) • How can Christians serve the perceived needs of the local communities? • What groupings of people make that possible? • What physical resources (especially buildings) are helpful?

34. Where do we begin? • Call of God • Acts 13:1-3 • Human Need • Acts 17:16 While Paul was waiting for them in Athens, he was greatly distressed to see that the city was full of idols. • Compassion (splanknizomai) • Not Church or Christians • Where are you • At this moment?

35. What about leadership? • Absolutely vital – good leadership with adequate time. • Ordained people don’t necessarily do it better! • Gifts are more important than titles • ‘anointing’ precedes ‘appointing’ • Teams are better then individuals • Traditional churches may have other expectations – don’t assume them for fresh ways of being church