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GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF THE RICHARD H. HAGEMEYER PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER Charles S. McCreery

GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF THE RICHARD H. HAGEMEYER PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER Charles S. McCreery PTWC Director Tsunami Training Bangkok, Thailand May, 2006. PTWC STAFFING EARLY 2006. PTWC SCIENTIFIC STAFF Tsunami Warning Science Officer (Deputy Director)

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GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF THE RICHARD H. HAGEMEYER PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER Charles S. McCreery

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  1. GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF THE RICHARD H. HAGEMEYER PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER Charles S. McCreery PTWC Director Tsunami Training Bangkok, Thailand May, 2006

  2. PTWC STAFFING EARLY 2006

  3. PTWC SCIENTIFIC STAFF Tsunami Warning Science Officer (Deputy Director) Dr Stuart Weinstein, Geophysicist, PTWC TWSO Senior Scientists Dr. Robert Cessaro, Geophysicist, PTWC Barry Hirshorn, Geophysicist, PTWC Dr. Gerard Fryer, Geophysicist, U. Hawaii Dr. Vindell Hsu, Geophysicist, AFTAC Dr Dailin Wang, Oceanographer, IPRC Scientists Dr. Victor Sardina, Geophysicist, EQ Engineering Dr. David Walsh, Oceanographer, NRL and ARC Brian Shiro, Geophysicist, Washington U. Stuart Koyanagi, Geophysicist, USGS Information Technology Officer Dr. Nathan Becker, Oceanographer, U. Hawaii

  4. PTWC KEY OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES • SEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSES • TSUNAMI WAVE MEASUREMENTS • DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES • MESSAGE CREATION & DISSEMINATION

  5. KEY OPERATIONAL GOALS • FASTER • MORE ACCURATE • MORE RELIABLE • MORE EFFECTIVE

  6. OPERATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING WEAKNESSES • SEISMIC ANALYSES ONLY FOR INITIAL WARNINGS (FAST BUT FALSE ALARMS) • LONG WAIT FOR SEA LEVEL DATA • TOO FEW AND ONLY POINT MEASUREMENTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE FIELD • LONG TIME BETWEEN EVENTS (CONFUSION) • NO DETECTION OF LANDSLIDE OR VOLCANIC SOURCES • TOO SLOW FOR LOCAL TSUNAMIS (MOST EVENTS)

  7. PTWC PACIFIC BULLETIN CRITERIA

  8. PTWC Criteria for Bulletins in the Indian Ocean Region

  9. Frequency of Each Type of Bulletin (based on last 100 years of events)

  10. DECISION SUPPORT • EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS • HISTORICAL DATA • COASTAL GAUGE READINGS • DART READINGS • REPORTS FROM REGION • WHITMORE MODEL • SIFT

  11. Criteria for Puerto Rico and U.S Virgin Island Bulletins

  12. One Significant Tsunamis every 20 Years (last 300 yrs) Expected Frequency of Earthquakes (last 100 yrs)

  13. WHAT WILL PTWC PROVIDE • INITIAL BULLETINS 10-20 MINUTES AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE FOR MOST EPICENTERS • FOLLOW-UP BULLETINS WITH UPDATED EVALUATIONS BASED ON AVAILABLE SEA LEVEL DATA AND FORECAST MODELS • DISSEMINATION TO 7X24 FOCAL POINTS BY GTS, EMAIL, FAX, SMS, WEB SITE • PHONE CALL TO NEAREST FOCAL POINTS IF A WARNING OR WATCH

  14. WHAT WILL PTWC PROVIDE • ROUTINE COMMUNICATIONS TESTS • COMMUNICATIONS PLAN DESCRIBING OPERATIONS PROCEDURES • CONTINUED ENGAGEMENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGIONAL CARIBBEAN TWS

  15. WHAT MUST MEMBER STATES PROVIDE • 7X24 FOCAL POINTS (KEPT UP TO DATE) • PROCEDURES FOR ACTION IN RESPONSE TO BULLETINS • FORECAST POINTS • RESPONSE TO COMMUNICATION TESTS • ASSISTANCE WITH FIELD SITES (SEISMIC, SEA LEVEL, GPS) • CONTINUED ENGAGEMENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGIONAL CARIBBEAN TWS • LONG TERM COMMITMENT

  16. 7X24 FOCAL POINT(S) INFORMATION • (to be collected and maintained by the ICG Secretariat) • NAME OF FOCAL POINT AGENCY/OFFICE • OFFLINE CONTACT PERSON FOR THAT OFFICE • MAILING ADDRESS • 7X24 PHONE AND ALTERNATE PHONE(S) • PRIMARY CONTACT METHOD (GTS, FAX, EMAIL, SMS, EMWIN) • SECONDARY CONTACT METHOD

  17. Sample Tsunami Information Bulletin TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001 PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 0117Z 11 APR 2005 THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE CARIBBEAN. ... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ... THIS MESSAGE IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME - 0100Z 11 APR 2005 COORDINATES - 13.0 NORTH 59.5 WEST LOCATION - BARBADOS MAGNITUDE - 6.7

  18. Sample Tsunami Information Bulletin (cont) EVALUATION A DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA. HOWEVER - THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL TSUNAMI THAT COULD AFFECT COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A HUNDRED KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES IN - BARBADOS SHOULD BE MADE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

  19. Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 002 PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 0354Z 11 APR 2005 THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN. ... A LOCAL TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ... A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INDONESIA FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION, THIS MESSAGE IS AN ADVISORY ONLY. AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME - 0100Z 11 APR 2005 COORDINATES - 1.3 NORTH 97.5 EAST LOCATION - NORTHERN SUMATERA INDONESIA MAGNITUDE - 7.2

  20. Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement (cont) MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER ------------------- ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- MALE 4.2N 73.5E 0448Z 0.19M 14MIN COLOMBO 6.9N 79.8E 0345Z 0.15M 22MIN TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT AMPL - AMPLITUDE IN METERS FROM MIDDLE TO CREST OR MIDDLE TO TROUGH OR HALF OF THE CREST TO TROUGH PER - PERIOD OF TIME FROM ONE WAVE CREST TO THE NEXT EVALUATION SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. FOR THOSE AREAS - WHEN DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES. NO TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN ALTHOUGH SOME OTHER AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA LEVEL CHANGES. DUE TO ONLY LIMITED SEA LEVEL DATA FROM THE REGION IT IS NOT POSSIBLE FOR THIS CENTER TO RAPIDLY NOR ACCURATELY EVALUATE THE THE STRENGTH OF A TSUNAMI IF ONE HAS BEEN GENERATED.

  21. Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement (cont) ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. THE TIME BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE TSUNAMI WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR. LOCATION COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME -------------------------------- ------------ ------------ INDONESIA SIMEULUE 2.5N 96.0E 0134Z 11 APR SIBERUT 1.5S 98.7E 0144Z 11 APR PADANG 0.9S 100.1E 0214Z 11 APR BANDA ACEH 5.5N 95.1E 0223Z 11 APR BENGKULU 3.9S 102.0E 0238Z 11 APR BANDAR LAMPUNG 6.0S 105.5E 0338Z 11 APR CILACAP 7.8S 108.9E 0351Z 11 APR BALI 9.0S 115.5E 0433Z 11 APR BELAWAN 3.8N 98.8E 0544Z 11 APR KUPANG 10.0S 123.4E 0549Z 11 APR THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR THIS EVENT.

  22. PTWC Preliminary Forecast Points

  23. FORECAST POINTS • USED TO DETERMINE IF AN AREA IS IN A WATCH • TSUNAMI ETA’S FOR FORECAST POINTS GIVEN IN BULLETINS IF AREA IS IN A WATCH • PRELIMINARY ONES TAKEN FROM ATLAS – NEEDS REVIEW BY MEMBER STATES • SHOULD BE RECOGNIZABLE PLACES • NEED ADEQUATE COVERAGE OF COASTS - ONE EVERY FEW HUNDRED KILOMETERS • NOT TOO MANY OR BULLETINS TOO LONG

  24. Sample Communication Test TEST...TSUNAMI DUMMY – COMMUNICATIONS TEST...TEST PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 0315Z 11 APR 2005 FROM: PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IN EWA BEACH HAWAII TO: TSUNAMI FOCAL POINTS FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTRIES IN THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION AUSTRALIA – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT BANGLADESH – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT FRANCE – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT INDIA – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT INDONESIA – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT IRAN – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT KENYA – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT MADAGASCAR – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT MALAYSIA – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT MALDIVES – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT MAURITIUS – NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT . . . --- ALL OTHERS PLEASE DISREGARD ---

  25. Sample Communication Test (cont) SUBJECT: TSUNAMI DUMMY (COMMUNICATION TEST). THIS IS A TEST TO VERIFY COMMUNICATION LINKS AND DETERMINE TRANSMISSION TIMES INVOLVED IN DISSEMINATION OF TSUNAMI ADVISORY INFORMATION TO THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION. RECIPIENTS ARE REQUESTED TO PLEASE RESPOND BACK TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER. THE RESPONSE SHOULD INCLUDE 1 - NAME OF OFFICE THAT RECEIVED THIS TEST 2 - METHOD OR METHODS BY WHICH OFFICE RECEIVED THIS TEST 3 - INCLUDE EMAIL ADDRESS OR FAX NUMBER OF EACH METHOD 3 - TIME OF RECEIPT OF THIS TEST BY EACH METHOD PLEASE RESPOND VIA ONE OF THE FOLLOWING EMAIL - PTWC@PTWC.NOAA.GOV TELEFAX - 808-689-4543 THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION IN THIS COMMUNICATION TEST.

  26. Information Bulletin Mw = 6.5-7.5 Fixed 1000km Regional Warning Mw = 7.6-7.8 Expanding 3+3 hour Regional Warning/Watch Mw > 7.8 150 Events ---------------- 20 Destructive Local or Regional Tsunamis 100 Events ---------------- 30 Destructive Local or Regional Tsunamis 8 Tele- Tsunamis Cumulative Events per Century  Mw Value 2500 Events ---------------- 23 Destructive Local Tsunamis Values projected from Harvard CMT Catalog Moment Magnitude, Mw

  27. DATA MESSAGE ALERT THE GENERAL CONCEPT Threat Evaluation Evacuation Decision Safety Response PTWC Designated Government Authority Public

  28. TWO GENERAL CASES • Local Tsunami • Must Respond in Minutes from Earthquake • No Time for Official Decisions • Immediate Public Alerting Necessary • Automatic Public Evacuation Required • Regional or Teletsunami • Must Respond within a Few Hours at Most • More Time for Official Decisions • More Time to Alert and Instruct Public • Organized Evacuation Possible

  29. HAWAII EVENT ALARMS SEISMIC SEA LEVEL

  30. RESPONSE TIME TO ALARMS NOW: 30 SEC DURING NORMAL WORK HOURS 2 MIN DURING AFTER HOURS (FM QUARTERS) 2006: 30 SEC AT ALL TIMES (24X7 STAFFING) OPS CENTER QUARTERS 1 QUARTERS 2 QUARTERS 5 QUARTERS 3 QUARTERS 4

  31. ANALYSTS REVIEW & REVISION (1-3 MIN) • VERIFY ITS AN ACTUAL LOCAL EARTHQUAKE. • SELECT FROM AUTOMATIC HYPOCENTERS. • REVISE HYPOCENTER WITH ADDITIONAL DATA. • INTERACTIVELY COMPUTE MAGNITUDES. • DECIDE BEST HYPOCENTER AND MAGNITUDE. • CHECK RUNUP AND SEA LEVEL DATA. • COMPARE TO CRITERIA AND ISSUE MESSAGE.

  32. HAWAII BULLETIN CRITERIA

  33. State & County Emer Ops State & County Warning Pts HAWAS EMAIL FAX NWR SIRENS EAS Honolulu Forecast Office ISSUE MESSAGE & ALERT PUBLIC PTWC Public Voice Text

  34. The Public must be educated to respond immediately based upon having felt shaking from the earthquake and upon hearing sirens, EAS, or NWR alerts. There is no time to verify the warning or wait for instructions.

  35. PACIFIC EVENT ALARMS SEISMIC SEA LEVEL * for areas with coverage

  36. RESPONSE TIME TO ALARMS NOW: 30 SEC DURING NORMAL WORK HOURS 2 MIN DURING AFTER HOURS (FM QUARTERS) 2006: 30 SEC AT ALL TIMES (24X7 STAFFING) OPS CENTER QUARTERS 1 QUARTERS 2 QUARTERS 5 QUARTERS 3 QUARTERS 4

  37. ANALYSTS REVIEW & REVISION (1-3 MIN) • VERIFY ITS A LARGE PACIFIC EARTHQUAKE. • SELECT FROM AUTOMATIC HYPOCENTERS. • REVISE HYPOCENTER WITH ADDITIONAL DATA. • INTERACTIVELY COMPUTE MAGNITUDES. • DECIDE BEST HYPOCENTER AND MAGNITUDE. • COMPARE TO CRITERIA AND ISSUE MESSAGE.

  38. PACIFIC INITIAL BULLETIN CRITERIA

  39. SUBSEQUENT BULLETINS • DECISION SUPPORT • Additional Seismic Parameters • Coastal Sea Level Readings • DART Readings • Reliable Reports • Historical Data • Forecast Models • DECISIONS • Upgrade to Warning • Continue Warning • Expand Warning • Cancel Warning

  40. RADIO AFTN TALK RAYNET SIRENS GTS FAX EMAIL EMWIN TV ISSUE MESSAGE & ALERT PUBLIC PTWC Public Text Designated Agencies of Countries US Interests in the Pacific Hawaii Civil Defense

  41. Designated Agencies must be prepared with an Operations Plan to respond quickly and alert the public when necessary based upon the information received from PTWC and any supplemental data or information they may receive. This could include advice from local experts.

  42. 100% OPERATIONAL RELIABILITY • POWER: All operational systems on a central UPS backed up by a generator with one week of fuel. • CENTER HARDWARE: Hardware duplicated into primary and redundant systems. • DATA SOURCES: Seismic and sea level data come from multiple sources. • DATA COMMUNICATIONS: Data is sent to PTWC over multiple links whenever possible.

  43. 100% OPERATIONAL RELIABILITY • DATA PROCESSING: Multiple algorithms for EQ detection, alerting, locations, magnitudes, and model guidance. • MESSAGING: Multiple dissemination methods to reach designated contact points by multiple means. • DUTY PERSONS: Two persons always on duty on the Center compound. • BACKUP CENTER: PTWC and WC/ATWC provide backup service for each other.

  44. LONG TERM SUSTAINABILITY • NATIONAL SUPPORT: National commitment to Center operations. As a part of the US National Weather Service, certain resources and expertise are shared with this organization that also does 24x7 monitoring of the environment and issues advisories, watches, and warnings. • ORGANIZATIONAL SUPPORT: Organizations of stakeholders such as ITSU (international), NTHMP (national), and TTRC (local) that include emergency managers, warning center operators, and scientists provide authoritative sustained focus on tsunami issues.

  45. LONG TERM SUSTAINABILITY • MULTI-FUNCTION SEISMIC: Seismic stations operated by multiple organizations for multiple purposes including earthquake monitoring, volcano monitoring, and geophysical research. • MULTI-FUNCTION SEA LEVEL: Sea level stations operated by multiple organizations for multiple purposes including tides, storm surge, El Niño, and long-term sea level rise. • MULTI-FUNCTION COMMUNICATIONS: Data communications methods shared when possible. Message disseminations over multi-purpose circuits such as GTS, AFTN, EMWIN.

  46. LONG TERM READINESS • FREQUENT ALARMS: Duty staff respond to one or two earthquakes per day on average • FREQUENT BULLETINS: Bulletin criteria set so system is exercised regularly. • Pacific: Mw >= 6.5 ~2 events/month • Hawaii: ml > 4.0 ~1 event/month • COMMUNICATION TESTS: Monthly communication tests with response required ensure communication links working and reinforce readiness. • EXERCISES: Tabletop and more realistic exercises expose weaknesses and provide practice.

  47. 17 November 2003: SIFT Match of Waveforms of Generation-Propagation Model and Tsunameter

  48. Tsunami Tsunami Seismic Tsunami Real Time Detection of November 17, 2003 Tsunami

  49. Challenge: • Source Detection and Characterization • Fill gaps in seismic coverage • Faster Parameters – Source Mechanism and Slip Distribution • More accurately define the tsunami from the source parameters • Non-seismic sources – landslides, submarine slumps, volcanoes, meteors

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