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Recent Progress on High Impact Weather Forecast with GOES‐R and Advanced IR Soundings

Recent Progress on High Impact Weather Forecast with GOES‐R and Advanced IR Soundings. Jun Li 1 , Jinlong Li 1 , Jing Zheng 1 , Tim Schmit 2 , and Hui Liu 3 1 University of Wisconsin-Madison 2 Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NESDIS/NOAA

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Recent Progress on High Impact Weather Forecast with GOES‐R and Advanced IR Soundings

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  1. Recent Progress on High Impact Weather Forecast with GOES‐R and Advanced IR Soundings Jun Li1, JinlongLi1, Jing Zheng1, Tim Schmit2, andHui Liu3 1 University of Wisconsin-Madison 2 Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NESDIS/NOAA 3 National Center for Atmospheric Research Warn-on-Forecast and High Impact Weather Workshop 08 – 09 Feb 2012, Norman, OK

  2. Outline • Prepare for GOES-R high temporal water vapor measurements for high impact weather (HIW) forecasting through data assimilation; • MODIS TPW, AMSR-E TPW, and GOES Sounder PW as proxy • WRF/DART, WRF/3DVAR • Improve high impact weather forecasts with advanced IR soundings; • Verify impact with in-situ measurements, hurricane track and intensity observations, GOES Imager, and microwave measurements; • 2012 plan – value added impact on HIW forecasts with advanced IR soundings when combining GOES-R and polar sounders.

  3. 1. Prepare for GOES-R high temporal water vapor measurements for high impact weather forecasting through data assimilation Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) Sinlaku Path Sinlaku rapid intensification (9 – 10 September 2008) observed

  4. Terra TPW AMSR-E TPW Aqua TPW Terra MODIS (upper left), Aqua MODIS (lower left) and AMSR-E (upper right) TPW images over ocean for 10 September 2008. The spatial resolution is 5 km for MODIS TPW and 17 km for AMSR-E TPW.

  5. CTL • AMSR-E TPW • MODIS TPW • Obs

  6. GOES-R LAP algorithm improves operational MODIS TPW product; the new MODIS TPW with GOES-R algorithm will be used in 2012 HIW studies MYD07 GOES-R Alg.

  7. GOES Sounder GOES-R ABI GOES Sounder (left) and GOES-R ABI (right) water vapor weighting functions

  8. GOES Reg GOES Phy

  9. 06:30 GOES (W11+E13), +/- 5min 06:05 06:00 05:55 n = 10112 =9207(E13)+905(W11) 05:30

  10. Forecast with GOES Sounder OBS Forecast with Conventional data Hourly Precipitation Forecasts in Early Stage 2012/5/10 01 Z ~ 2012/5/10 12 Z Hourly precipitation forecast from 00 Z – 12 Z 05-10-2010 over CONUS with WRF/3DVAR, model resolution is 12 km, GOES Sounder 300 – 700 hPaprecipitable water (PW) is used every 3 hours (preliminary results).

  11. Forecast with GOES Sounder Observation Cumulative precipitation forecast from 00Z to 06 Z 05-10-2010 over CONUS with WRF/3DVAR, model resolution is 12 km, GOES Sounder 300 – 700 hPaprecipitable water (PW) is used every 3 hours (preliminary results). Forecast with Conventional

  12. AIRS (10 August 2009) • 2. Improve high impact weather with advanced IR soundings CrIS (20 January 2012) global coverage (provided by Dave Tobin – CIMSS/SSEC)

  13. AIRS500 hPa atmospheric temperatures in clear skies (06 September 2008) for hurricane Ike (K) (K)

  14. OBS CTL AIRS-TQ Hurricane at 2008090606 CTL AIRS-TQ CTL:radiosondes, satellite winds, pilot report, GPS, ship, profiler, surface observations AIRS-TQ: CTL + AIRS-TQ

  15. AIRS soundings provide value-added information to conventional observations(Track forecast RMSE for hurricane Ike - 2008) AIRS single FOV soundings in clear skies are used. WRF/3DVAR (12 km resolution) forecasting and assimilation system is used. Assimilation is done every 6 hours. 0-h is from analysis, others are forecasts (06 UTC 06 September 2008 – 00 UTC 10 September 2008).

  16. 72-hour ensemble forecasts – Hurricane Irene (2011) (from 06 UTC 23 to 00 UTC 25 August 2011) Assimilation method: WRF/DART with 36 km resolution Control (CTL): assimilate radiosonde, satellite cloud winds, QuikSCAT winds, aircraft data, COSMIC GPS refractivity, ship, and land surface data; AIRS: CTL + AIRS temperature and moisture soundings CTL AIRS Obs Irene (2011) track forecasts Irene (2011) sea level pressure forecasts

  17. Assimilation method: WRF/DART with 36 km resolution CTL AIRS CTL run: assimilate radiosonde, satellite cloud winds, QuikSCAT winds, aircraft data, COSMIC GPS refractivity, ship, and land surface data. AIRS run: CTL + AIRS soundings Central sea level pressure forecast RMSE - Hurricane Irene (2011) (06 UTC 23 to 00 UTC 25 August 2011)

  18. 3. Verify impact – using AMSR-E TWP AMSR-E TPW (090716 - 090719) TPW forecast (090718) with GTS (mm) (mm) No AIRS With AIRS TPW forecasts with GTS and AIRS TPW forecast RMSE using collocated AMSR-E as reference ((06 UTC 06 September – 00 UTC 10 September)) (mm)

  19. Impact of sounding bias correction on TC forecasts AIRS no BC AIRS with BC Track forecast RMSE for hurricane Ike (2008) (06 UTC 06 September – 00 UTC 10 September)

  20. 4. Summary and 2012 plans • GOES Sounder, MODIS, AMSR-E TPW as proxy for GOES-R shows positive impact on HIW forecasts; • Advanced IR soundings provide positive impact on tropical cyclone intensity and track analysis/forecasts; • WRF/DART and WRF/3DVAR provide consistent results; • 2012 plans on HIW studies • Use GSI to emulate operational environment; focus on using GOES Sounder for preparing GOES-R applications; • Study value added impact with advanced IR soundings (radiances or retrievals) on HIW forecasts when combining GOES-R and polar-orbiting sounders; • Continue collaboration with ESRL RAP modeling group; • Collaborate with JPSS sounding team (Chris Barnet) on using AIRS/CrIS (including AMSU and ATMS).

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