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Interoperability at INM Experience with the SREPS system

Interoperability at INM Experience with the SREPS system. J. A. García-Moya NWP – Spanish Met Service INM SRNWP Interoperability Workshop ECMWF – 14-15 January 2008. Ensemble for Short Range. Surface parameters are the most important ones for weather forecast.

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Interoperability at INM Experience with the SREPS system

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  1. Interoperability at INMExperience with the SREPS system J. A. García-Moya NWP – Spanish Met Service INM SRNWP Interoperability Workshop ECMWF – 14-15 January 2008

  2. Ensemble for Short Range • Surface parameters are the most important ones for weather forecast. • Forecast of extreme events (convective precip, gales,…) is probabilistic. • Short Range Ensembles can help to forecast these events. • Forecast risk (Palmer, ECMWF Seminar 2002) is the goal for both Medium- and, also, Short-Range Prediction. SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  3. Errors of the short-range forecast • Due to model formulation. • Due to simplifications in parameterisation schemes. • Due to uncertainty in the initial state. • Special for LAMs, due to errors in lateral boundary conditions. • Due to uncertainties in soil fields (soil temperature and soil water content, …). SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  4. SREPS I • Multi-model approach (Hou & Kalnay 2001). • Stochastic physics (Buizza et al. 1999). • Multi-boundaries: • From few global deterministic models. • From global model EPS (ECMWF). • SLAF technique (Hou & Kalnay 2001). SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  5. Multi-model • Hirlam (http://hirlam.org). • HRM from DWD (German Weather Service). • MM5 (http://box.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/). • UM from UKMO (Great Britain Weather Service). • LM (COSMO Model) from COSMO consortium (http://www.cosmo-model.org). SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  6. Multi-Boundaries From different global deterministic models: • ECMWF • UM from UKMO (UK Weather Service) • GFS from NCEP • GME from DWD (German Weather Service) • CMC (Canadian Met Centre, ongoing work) SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  7. SREPS at INM • Mummub: Multi-model Multi-boundaries • 72 hours forecast two times a day (00 & 12 UTC). • Characteristics: • 5 models. • 4 boundary conditions. • 2 latest ensembles (HH & HH-12). • 20 member ensemble every 12 hours • Time-lagged Super-Ensemble of 40 members every 12 hours. SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  8. Whole Area Zoom over Spain All models X bcs SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  9. Multi-boundaries • What can we get from using multi-boundaries from deterministic high resolution global models? • Full advantage of Variational Data Assimilation Schemes in global models • The best possible data for boundary conditions • More spread for the short-range than using one single-model EPS • What can we loose using data from different operational centres? • Daily transmission of very large amount of data (full resolution global model fields). • Dependence of different priorities at the different operational centres. SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  10. What do we need? • Operational priority at the centres. • DWD versus UKMO • Development and maintenance of the interoperability software. • Human resources for monitoring. • Clear European Policy of commercial rights for using operational NWP data from other centres • Improved exchange of NWP data among Met Services in Europe SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  11. ECMWF GME AVN UM Single BC’s Ensembles ( 4 members each) SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  12. Hirlam Hrm MM5 UM Single model Ensembles (4 members each) SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  13. SLAF (Scaled Lagged Average Forecast) • Integration area 194x181x40. • 17.5 N – 62.5 N / 28.25 W – 20.0 E. • 0.25º lat x lon horizontal resolution. • ECMWF forecast as boundary files. • Forecast up to 48 hours every 6 hours. • Test Period of 20 days: 2002120200-2002122418 SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  14. SLAF • SLAF (AN  K • ( AN - FCHH ), 0  k  1) • Four different Ensembles with 9 members each. • EXP Initial Files Boundaries • SLAF1 Errors H+06 No perturb. • SLAF2 Errors H+48 No perturb. • SLAF3 No perturb. Errors H+48 • SLAF4 Errors H+48 Errors H+48 • SLAF5 Errors H+24 Errors H+24 SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  15. Errors H+06 • SLAF (AN  K • ( AN - FCHH ), 0  k  1) • Experiments: • Control SFC AN = AN00 • SF1 and SF2 AN = AN00  1 • (AN00-FC06) • SF3 and SF4 AN = AN00  3/4 • (AN00-FC12) • SF5 and SF6 AN = AN00  1/2 • (AN00-FC18) • SF7 and SF8 AN = AN00  1/4 • (AN00-FC24) SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  16. Errors H+24 • SLAF (AN  K • ( AN - FCHH ), k=cte. ) • Experiments: • Control SFC AN = AN00 • S11 and S12 AN = AN00  1.5 • (AN00-FC12) • S13 and S14 AN = AN00  1 • (AN00-FC24) • S15 and S16 AN = AN00  0.75 • (AN00-FC36) • S17 and S18 AN = AN00  0.50 • (AN00-FC48) SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  17. Errors H+48 • SLAF (AN  K • ( AN - FCHH ), k=cte. ) • Experiments: • Control SFC AN = AN00 • S11 and S12 AN = AN00  2.5 • (AN00-FC12) • S13 and S14 AN = AN00  2 • (AN00-FC24) • S15 and S16 AN = AN00  1.5 • (AN00-FC36) • S17 and S18 AN = AN00  1 • (AN00-FC48) SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  18. Spread: BC’s vs. IC’s Pmsl SLAF2 – Pert IC SLAF3 – Pert BC SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  19. G500 T500 Spread (cont.) SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  20. MM5 Multi-physics (5 members) • Same initial and boundary fields. • Different parameterizations schemes • Convection (Grell, Kain-Fritsch, Betts-Miller) • Boundary layer (MRF, ETA). • Shallow convection “on” and “off”. • Two months of parallel test (20060101 – 20060228) SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  21. MSLP H+48 SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  22. Cooperation in EuropeINM  ARPA SIM  DWD DWD ARPA - SIM INM Courtesy of Susanne Theis (DWD) SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  23. IFS – ECMWF global COSMO-SREPS (Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System) short range (up to 3 days) LM at 25 km on IFS GME – DWD global P1: conv. scheme (KF) P2: turb. parameter 1 P3: time filter P4: turb. parameter 2 LM at 25 km on GME by INM Spain UM – UKMO global LM at 25 km on UM 16 LM runs at 10 km AVN – NCEP global LM at 25 km on NCEP SRNWP Interoperability Workshop Courtesy of Chiara Marsigli (ARPA-SIM)

  24. ARPA SIM  DWD • UNCERTAINTY INTRODUCED BY LATERAL BOUNDARIES(Ensemble ‘LBC’) • transfer of uncertainty across scales in an 'ensemble chain' • COSMO-DE is nested into the COSMO-SREPS (16 members, ARPA-SIM, Bologna) • COSMO-SREPS uses a COSMO model version with 10km grid spacing and perturbed physics • COSMO-SREPS is nested into the INM ensemble (INM, Spain) • 16 members in total Courtesy of Susanne Theis (DWD) SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  25. Verification • Verification exercise, April-June 2006: • Calibration: with synoptic variables Z500, T500, Pmsl • Response to binary events: reliability and resolution of surface variables 10m surface wind, 6h and 24h accumulated precipitation SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  26. Pmsl- ECMWF H+72 SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  27. H+72 Pmsl- Obs SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  28. Reliab. - 6 h Acc. Precip H+24 (1,5,10,20) mm Reliab. - 24 h Acc. Precip H+54 (1,5,10,20) mm ECMWF SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  29. Reliab. - 6 h Acc. Precip H+24 (1,5,10,20) mm Reliab. - 24 h Acc. Precip H+54 (1,5,10,20) mm Observations SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  30. >=0.8 >=0.9 H+30 H+54 ROC curves – 24 h Acc Precip (1, 5, 10 & 20 mm) ECMWF Observations H+30 H+54 SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  31. >=0.9 10 m wind H+24 (10,15,20) m/s Reliability ROC 1.0 0.5 H+24 ECMWF - Analysis SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  32. 1.0 0.5 10 m wind H+24 (10,15,20) m/s Reliability ROC H+24 Observations SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  33. European Climate Networks • 24 hours acc. precipitation (from early morning). • From Spain, Germany, France, UK, … • More than 12,000 observations every day. SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  34. >=1mm >=5mm >=10mm >=20mm >=1mm >=5mm >=10mm >=20mm Reliability & Sharpness • Good reliability according to • thresholds (base rate) • forecast length H+30 Joint H+54 No Under-sampling SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  35. Calibration and bias correction: BMA BMA 500 hPa Temperature (T500) & Geopotential (Z500) 3, 5 and 10 days of training period 3 months of calibration (April, May and June of 2006) 24, 48 and 72 hours forecast 10m Wind speed (S10m) 3, 5, 10 and 25 days of training period 1 month for S10m (April 2006) 24, 48 and 72 hours forecast Calibration using TEMP and SYNOP obs over Europe SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  36. RESULTS H +24 H +72 H +48 T 500 MULTIMODEL BMA 3 T. DAYS BMA 5 T. DAYS BMA 10 T. DAYS SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  37. RESULTS H +24 H +48 H +72 Z500 MULTIMODEL BMA 3 T. DAYS BMA 5 T. DAYS BMA 10 T. DAYS SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  38. RESULTS S10m MULTIMODEL BMA 3 T. DAYS BMA 5 T. DAYS BMA 10 T. DAYS BMA 25 T. DAYS SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  39. RESULTS S10m BMA 3 T. DAYS BMA 5 T. DAYS BMA 10 T. DAYS BMA 25 T. DAYS >10m/s SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  40. WEIGHTS TIME SERIES T 500 td 3 H +72 HRM HIRLAM LOKAL MODEL MM5 UM SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  41. WEIGHTS TIME SERIES T 500 td 3 H + 48 T 500 td 3 H + 24 T 500 td 3 H + 72 HIRLAM SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  42. WEIGHTS TIME SERIES T 500 td 5 H + 72 T 500 td 3 H + 72 T 500 td 10 H + 72 HIRLAM SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  43. WEIGHTS TIME SERIES T 500 td 3 H + 24 Z500 td 3 H + 24 HIRLAM SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  44. Conclusions • A Multi-model-Multi-boundaries Short Range Ensemble Prediction System (MMSREPS), has been develop at the INM-Spain. • Taking advantage of using IC’s & BC’s from different high resolution global models. • Nice spread in the short-range, but … • Daily transmission of very large amount of data (full resolution global model fields). • Dependence of different priorities of the different operational centres. • Good cooperation across Europe: • UKMO, DWD, COSMO  INM • INM  ARPA – SIM  DWD SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  45. Weaknesses of the interoperability project • Development and maintenance of interface software. • Commercial policy of NWP data across Europe. • Easy exchange of software among Met Services. No model is better than others every time and everywhere • Improved exchange of NWP data and software among Met Services in Europe SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  46. Questions j.garciamoya@inm.es SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  47. 967 Analysis ECMWF December, 27 1999 at 18 UTC SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  48. 989 ECMWF - OPR Comparison H+42 HIRLAM ECMWF SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  49. 990 ECMWF - OPR Comparison H+30 HIRLAM ECMWF SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

  50. 991 987 ECMWF - OPR Comparison H+18 HIRLAM ECMWF SRNWP Interoperability Workshop

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