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2011 Grain/Feed Market Outlook

2011 Grain/Feed Market Outlook. ISU Swine Extension In-Service Ames, Iowa Oct. 19, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. DDG Supply and Use.

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2011 Grain/Feed Market Outlook

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  1. 2011 Grain/Feed Market Outlook ISU Swine Extension In-Service Ames, Iowa Oct. 19, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. DDG Supply and Use My estimates, so take with a grain (or pound) of salt

  4. Feed Pricing Source: USDA-AMS

  5. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  6. U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  7. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  8. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  9. Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 10/14/2011

  10. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  11. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  12. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  13. 2011/12 U.S. Corn Exports Source: USDA-FAS

  14. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  15. DDG Exports Source: USDA-FAS

  16. 2010/11 DDG Exports Source: USDA-FAS

  17. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  18. 2011/12 U.S. Soybean Exports Source: USDA-FAS

  19. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  20. Soybean Meal Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  21. 2010 U.S. Soybean Meal Exports Source: USDA-FAS

  22. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  23. Corn Grind for Ethanol Source: DOE-EIA

  24. Ethanol Margin Source: CARD

  25. Ethanol Margins Source: CARD

  26. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  27. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  28. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  29. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

  30. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

  31. Corn

  32. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

  33. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

  34. Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

  35. States with Room to Grow

  36. Iowa Crop Margins

  37. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation • Supply/demand concerns • Smaller than anticipated U.S. crops • Biofuel growth and energy demand • Corn still has the upper hand in the acreage competition • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.70; Soy $13.15 • Futures (as of 10/14/11): Corn $6.26; Soy $12.37 • 2012/13: Futures (as of 10/14/11): Corn $5.84; Soy $12.12

  38. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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