African THORPEX Status

1. African THORPEX Status Aida Diongue-Niang ANACIM/Senegal Met. Service African THORPEX Regional Committee co-chair

2. Background • First THORPEX Planning meeting, Ouagadougou, February 2007 (gatherAfricanScientists and International Community) • Present THORPEX programme • Present the African Science and Implementationdraft document • Set up a Task Force to write-up the document • THORPX TF meeting, Dakar, September 2007 • Complete the Science Plan • Outlinefeasabletasks for Implementation • Prepare the 2nd planning meeting • 2nd THORPEX planning meeting, Karlsruhe, November 2007 (gatherAfricanScientists and International Community) • Present the revised Science Plan • Discuss the Implementationactivities • Propose the composition of the RegionalCommitte

3. Background (2) • RC meeting in Pretoria2008 • Review of the African Science Plan and Writing of the African Implementation plan • Production of the Science and Implementation Plan distribution to 52 African nations through PR; • 25 nominated national representative • Proposals submitted to seek for funding, Canadian IDRC, EU,GEO, Karlsruhe

4. THORPEX-Africa scientific questions • What is the available knowledge and understanding of the dynamical and physical processes of high-impacts events in Africa? • What is the skill of prediction of HI events at short to extended range? • How can we improve predictability of HI weather in Africa? MSGIR 02 August 2008 2 0h00UTC • What is the optimum conventional observing network to improve HIW monitoring and forecast? • What is the impact of « new observing systems » on predictabiliy of HIW? • What managable telecom. systems can enhance exchange of data through global regional and national centre? • What are the best ways and appropriate tools to dissemintate information to end-users? • How to quantify and evaluate benefits of improved forecasts for societies, economy and environment? • How do we build and maintain an information system on African HIW?

5. THORPEX-Africa Implementation, Plan, 2009 PDP1: Predictive Skill of high impact weather SERA1: High-impact weather database Societal and Economic Research Application Predictability and Dynamical Processes TIGGE PDP2: Contributing to the Development of Seamless forecast by filling the gap in intraseasonnal timescales SERA2: Forecast verification and cost/benefit assessments observing systems DAOS3: Improvement of telecommunications facilities DAOS2: Use of non conventional observing systems DAOS1: Design of an optimum network in Africa 5

6. THORPEX-Africa: context and motivation Relativelypoor performance on modeling systems over Africa (particularly in Tropical Africa): Misrepresentation of some key processes (NWP & Climate models ) Poor observing network (+ transmission failure ) + An important Gap in NWP model development and use in Africa • Impact on forecast and service delivery for societal and economic needs • THORPEX-Africa aims at contributing to : • Improve forecasts and reduce the adverse effects of hydro-meteorological related natural disasters in Africa and • Promote multidisciplinary collaboration between research, operations, applications and user communities through studies in line with societal and economical needs in Africa.

7. Implementation: THORPEX-Africa 1st Workshop, 5-8 October 2009, ICTP, Trieste Sponsor (THORPEX Trust Fund, ICTP, GEO, RIPIECSA) Attended by : • Representatives of National Meteorological services throughout the African continent (~20) and ACMAD • Representatives of major forecasting centres (ECMWF, NCEP, UK Met Office METEO-France, DWD) • Research scientists (climate/meteorology, information system, hydrology, socio-economic) from Africa, Europe and North America, • Representatives of relevant programmes (AMMA, GEO, EUMETNET/GEONetCAst, JWGFR, SERA, THORPEX WG, MEDEX, WIS, SDS-WAS, UCAR Africa Initiative, etc)

8. THORPEX-Africa 1st Workshop, 5-8 October 2009, ICTP, Trieste Objectives • To have a better picture of HIW in Africa , their impact and the warning process used. • To identify tools and products available in/for African Met. Services for predicting HIW. • To give a momentum to THORPEX-Africa planned activities regarding HIW Information system and predictability studies.

9. Tools for Predicting HIW /Assessing predictability Heterogeneous level across the continent: • Use of few NWP global models products through EUMETCAST distribution • Use of more NWP products using also Internet for dedicated Web page and/or through Retim distribution • Additional diagnostics with regional/local models, research-development activities, e.g. SAWS, Morocco, Algeria, Kenya Senegal • Systematic verification and feedback: only in few centres or in a framework pf projects (e.g. SWFDP) • Use of ensemble prediction: very rare, few countries mostly in Southern Africa with the SWFDP

10. Implementation Activities • Case studies at sub regional basis • Prototype of information system

11. s s S S s S Tg T T Main High-impact Weather In Africa From NHMS presentations Dry spells Tropical cyclones Cyclogenesis Flooding and Landslides Strong winds Sand & Dust Episodes, Heat waves Frost Pre-CAS-XV , Incheon , 17-18 November 2009 11

12. 2008 2009? 2009 1997 2007? 2008 Representatives of Met Services proposed to work at sub-regional basis focussing first on flooding events but also dust events & aerosols, dry spells, heat waves, marine hazards Case studies at regional level African RC Coordi. West Coordi.East& Centre Coord. South Coordi. North Focal P. NMHS1 Focal P. NMHS2 Focal P. NMHSn 12

13. 3 -year demonstration project with 3 phases

14. Why A High-Impact Weather Predictability and Information System ?

15. Approach for implementation While seeking for funding start the work in parallel with a few selected case studies (on a sub-regional basis; north, west, central, east, southern Africa) with • data collection (both weather and impact data) to feed an interim information system • model assessment to predict high-impact weather on the other hand will be performed

16. Status of case studies • Progress has been slow in 2010-2011 • Phase 1: i)synoptic analysis, ii)extremeness analysis, iii)conceptual model still not completed • Problems of resources: human for animation; funding for networking, training • Structural problems: poor operational environment, lack of skill, limited human resources, poor interaction with universities • Low involvement and commitment at higher level in NHMSs TO FOLLOW-UP • Invite THORPEX working groups, PDP, TIGGE to be involved in African THORPEX case studies. • Need of minimum of resources to enable people interacting focusing on few countries while seeking in parallel for more resources

17. Status of the interim database • Space Disk allocated by ICTP but there is the need to design the database and frame the associated metadata. • ICTP can help build the database that can be transferred to another African centre. This will require a person dedicated for this purpose who can go and work at ICTP as a visitor for a specified period of time. • To Follow-up and given minimum of resources

18. Way forward: Implementation activities • Linking THORPEX-Africa research to operations • Design a template on (HIW) events and encourage and promote reporting of HIW close to near real-time and near real-time model verification using diagnostics derived from deterministic and ensemble models Feedback to be provided. • Customized TIGGE products for validation & application in Africa ? Working with the TIGGE WG and the SWFDPs in Southern and Eastern Africa and with RSMCs in other regions? • Continue to seek for funding • Training on NWP and ensembles forecasting and TIGGE dataset.

19. Thanks for your attention • Questions? Contributions?