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WEATHER RESEARCH AFTER THORPEX

WEATHER RESEARCH AFTER THORPEX. Acknowledgements: USTEC Members US THORPEX Planning Workshop, Silver Spring, MD, 5-6 June 2014. THORPEX 101 – 2005-2014. Objective Accelerate improvements in high impact weather forecasts History WMO/WWRP sponsored program launched in 2004 Approach

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WEATHER RESEARCH AFTER THORPEX

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  1. WEATHER RESEARCHAFTER THORPEX Acknowledgements: USTEC Members US THORPEX Planning Workshop, Silver Spring, MD, 5-6 June 2014

  2. THORPEX 101 – 2005-2014 • Objective • Accelerate improvements in high impact weather forecasts • History • WMO/WWRP sponsored program launched in 2004 • Approach • Research related to end-to-end forecast process • Coordination across • Components of forecast system • Observing, data assimilation, ensemble forecast, decision support systems • Nations & regions • Research & operational communities • Modernize / optimize forecast system • Allocate research resources to maximize overall economic impact • Adaptive & probabilistic approaches • Observations, covariances, physics, decision procedures

  3. SOME MAJOR US ACCOMPLISHMENTS • $ 20+M THORPEX-related investments by agencies • Field campaigns, AOs, archives, etc Developed, tested, & operationally implemented • Adaptive observations • Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) program • National Weather Service – Suspended • Ensemble-based DA • Hybrid GSI-EnKF– NCEP, GMAO • Multi-center ensemble forecasting • North American Ensemble Forecast System • NCEP, Canada, Mexico • + FNMOC - NUOPC

  4. WWRP REORGANIZATION • Few standingWGs focusing on basic research areas • DAOS, WGNE, Ensemble/Predictability, SERA • Time limited projects – supported by WGs & Trust Funds • Polar Prediction Project (PPP) - launched • Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (SSS) - launched • High Impact Weather (HIW) – final planning phase • Need for coordinated US engagement • What are US needs in next 5-10 yrs? • Societal needs? • Scientific opportunities?

  5. US WEATHER RESEARCH PLANNING - 2024 Three considerations: • Formulate expected societal needs • Agency requirements • Agency funding opportunities • Explore scientific opportunities • WWRP projects • Polar Prediction Project (PPP) – Geographical focus • Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (SSS) – Lead-time focus • High Impact Weather (HIW) – Lead-time focus • Outline US research interests / talent Determine overlap between three factors • Identify US weather research themes • Themes can cut across THORPEX legacy projects

  6. THORPEX LEGACY PROJECTS • One atmosphere, all spatial/temporal scales connected • Post-THORPEX projects focus on various aspects of forecasting • Subjects of post-THORPEX projects overlap • US research themes may address / fall under 2-3 post-THORPX projects

  7. US THORPEX ORGANIZATION - CURRENT • US THORPEX Executive Committee – USTEC • NASA Vacant • US Navy Melinda Peng • NOAA John Cortinas • NSF Michael Morgan • US Representative to ICSC ZoltanToth, Chair • US THORPEX Science Steering Committee - USTSSC • Edmund Chang (Chair), Malaquias Pena (Co-chair) • US Program Office • Supported by NOAA & NSF

  8. SUGGESTED US POST-THORPEX ARRANGEMENT Purpose • National coordination of US weather research activities • Incl. intl. engagement w. WWRP / THORPEX legacy projects • US Executive Weather Research Committee - USWRC • USTEC members (NASA, NOAA, NSF, US Navy) • Invite other agencies (FAA, US Geological Survey, etc) • US Weather Research Science Steering Committee - USWRSSC • USTSSC members • New Chair?

  9. WORKSHOP EXPECTATIONS • Questions about THORPEX • How THORPEX influenced weather research? • What was triggered, fostered, facilitated w. THORPEX? • What would have happened anyway? • Major projects create opportunities • Realize and take advantage of them • Be creative, don’t be bound by what’s on ground • Create / influence the future • Present outcome of workshop at WWOSC in Montreal • Major US weather research themes

  10. BACKGROUND

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