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Case Study 1

Case Study 1. A Statistical Model of Criminal Behaviour. M. B. Short, M. R. D’Orsogna , V. B ., G. E. Tita , P. J. Brantingham , A. L. Bertozzi and L. B. Chayes , Math. Models and Methods in Applied Sciences, Vol 18, 1249-1267(2008). Crime is complex.

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Case Study 1

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  1. Case Study 1 A Statistical Model of Criminal Behaviour M. B. Short, M. R. D’Orsogna, V. B., G. E. Tita, P. J. Brantingham, A. L. Bertozziand L. B. Chayes, Math. Models and Methods in Applied Sciences, Vol 18, 1249-1267(2008)

  2. Crime is complex The spreading of disorder: K. Keizer, S. Lindenberg, and L. Steg, Science (2008)

  3. Repeat Victimisation Bowers, Johnson, Domestic Burglary Repeats and Space-Time Clusters. European journal of criminology (2004)

  4. The Discrete Model Burglars Homes, s = (i,j) Two dimensional lattice, grid spacing l Attractiveness: If a site is burgled, the dynamic component of attractiveness is adjusted as follows: Appear at rate which is constant through space Decides to burgle site with probability: If the criminal agent chooses not to burgle the current location, it moves to a neighbouring house with probability: Otherwise – if the criminal agent decides to burgle, it will then leave the system, and affect the attractiveness of the victimised site Static component Dynamic component

  5. The Discrete Model M. B. Short et al Math.Models and Methods in App. Sci, Vol 18, 1249-1267(2008)

  6. Assesses attractiveness of neighbouring sites New burglar generated Moves probabilistically Burglar removed from the system Dynamic attractiveness of local sites increase A = 1 q = 1/6 B(t) B(t) q = 1/6 B(t) A = 1 q = 3/6 A = 3 B(t) B(t) A = 1 q = 1/6

  7. The Discrete Model With thanks to Toby Davies

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