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Laura Rosella Nancy Ramuscak Michael Lebenbaum Amalia Plotogea David Mowat

Laura Rosella Nancy Ramuscak Michael Lebenbaum Amalia Plotogea David Mowat Canadian Public Health Association May 27, 2014. Future Incidence , Prevalence and Cost of Diabetes : An applied example of using a population prediction tool to inform public health.

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Laura Rosella Nancy Ramuscak Michael Lebenbaum Amalia Plotogea David Mowat

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  1. Laura Rosella Nancy Ramuscak Michael Lebenbaum Amalia Plotogea David Mowat Canadian Public Health Association May 27, 2014 Future Incidence, Prevalence and Cost of Diabetes: An applied example of using a population prediction tool to inform public health

  2. Population Risk Algorithm:Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT)

  3. Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT) • Vision: To enable decision-makers to use routinely collected population characteristics to estimate the number of new diabetes cases in their population of interest for the purpose of: • Resource planning • Prevention • Understanding distribution of risk in the population • Facilitating decision-making and priority setting • Used to quantify the impact that changes in baseline risk factors will have on future diabetes incidence • Designed to be applied to routinely collected and publicly available data allowing the tool to be used by a wide audience. Source: Rosella L C et al. J Epidemiol Community Health doi:10.1136/jech.2009.102244

  4. DPoRT Knowledge to Action OBJECTIVE 2: Complete the KtoA cycle : (i) Training and supporting health professionals and decision makers to use DPoRT (ii) Assessing barriers and facilitators of DPoRT use (iii) Tailoring and delivering the outputs of DPoRT to inform decisions OBJECTIVE 3: Evaluate the process Adapted from Graham ID, Logan J, Harrison MB, et al. Lost in knowledge translation: time for a map? J ContinEduc Health Prof 2006;26:13-24 OBJECTIVE 1: Create and support partnerships

  5. Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) Overview of DPoRT application Restrict sample (E.g. Peel residents who are age ≥20 without diabetes) Re-code CCHS variables for DPoRT Use DPoRT risk equation to estimate individual 10-yearrisk and the number of diabetes cases they represent Identify the effects of prevention activities Calculate summary statistics for overall population Identify high risk Individuals Identify risk across population strata Identify future health care needs

  6. Projecting Future Burden of Diabetes

  7. Total number of incident cases of diabetes and projected risk by Body Mass Index (BMI), Peel, 2012-2022

  8. Intervention Scenarios

  9. Attributable Costs of Diabetes

  10. Next Steps • Knowledge to Action evaluation • Application to real world examples • Communication of results to public health staff • Use during program planning and decision-making • Update with each new release of Canadian Community Health Survey data

  11. Thank you! Questions?

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