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SEMAP Project

SEMAP Modeling Plans and Status James Boylan Georgia EPD – Air Protection Branch SEMAP Air Quality Modeling Lead 2012 EPA Region 4 Modelers Workshop November 15, 2012 – Atlanta, GA. SEMAP Project. S outh E astern M odeling, A nalysis, and P lanning (SEMAP) Project

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SEMAP Project

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  1. SEMAP Modeling Plans and StatusJames BoylanGeorgia EPD – Air Protection BranchSEMAP Air Quality Modeling Lead2012 EPA Region 4 Modelers WorkshopNovember 15, 2012 – Atlanta, GA

  2. SEMAP Project • SouthEastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Project • Same group of states that were involved with SAMI, VISTAS, and ASIP • AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV • Funded and managed through SESARM

  3. Overview • Emission Inventory Development • Modeling with WRF, SMOKE, CMAQ • Future Year Projections for O3, PM2.5, RH • Ozone Emission Sensitivities • NOTE: SEMAP states do not have any moderate or serious ozone nonattainment areas & all PM2.5 monitors are meeting the NAAQS. • None of this modeling will be used in ozone or PM2.5 attainment SIPs.

  4. Emission Inventory • Emissions Inventory Contractors • AMEC/Alpine  Point source (EGU and non-EGU), fire, and on-road mobile (MOVES) emissions. • TranSystems  Area and non-road (including MAR) emissions. • “Actual” Emission Inventory (2007) • Used for model performance evaluations • “Typical” Emission Inventory (2006-2008) • Fires only (not EGUs) • Used for RRF calculations • Future Year Inventory – 2020 • Growth & Control factors for EGU point, non-EGU point, area, and MAR • Rerun NONROAD • Inventory mode ratio/control method for MOVES (proxy FY)

  5. Meteorological Modeling • WRF Model Set-Up • 36-km CONUS and 12-km Eastern US • 35 Vertical Layers • Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation • Morrison (moisture physics), PX (land surface), and ACM2 (PBL) • Modeling Centers • NC DENR and IA DNR • Model Performance Evaluation • Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) • NC DENR and GA EPD

  6. Air Quality Modeling System Meteorology (WRF) Air Quality (CMAQ) Emissions (SMOKE) Emissions Inventory (NIF) MOVES Rates

  7. Emissions Modeling • GT/UNC - SESARM contractor • Created SMOKE inputs (NIF to ORL format) • Ran SMOKE and SMOKE-MOVES • Created biogenic emissions (BEIS) • Added Canada/Mexico and other RPO Emissions • Part 75 data replacement for CEMS • Details on next slide • All 2007 SMOKE files are finished and ready to be used.

  8. Area Monthly Total NOx

  9. MOVES Monthly Total NOx

  10. 2007 Air Quality Modeling • GT/UNC - SESARM contractor • 2007 annual modeling with CMAQv5.0 • 36 and 12 km grids • Model Performance Evaluation • Diagnostic Sensitivity Testing (only if MPE poor) • New CMAQv5.0 Model Options • Additional new crustal species  YES • In-line plume rise for point sources  YES • In-line lightning NOx  YES • In-line bi-directional NH3 flux  NO • In-line biogenic emissions  NO • In-line wind blown dust  NO

  11. CMAQ Modeling Domain

  12. 2018 Air Quality Modeling • 2018 Annual Emissions Modeling • SMOKE for most source sectors • MOVES: Ratio approach using Inventory Mode • 2018 Annual CMAQ Modeling • Projections of ozone, PM2.5, and regional haze • Follow EPA’s RRF approach • Emission Sensitivity Modeling • NOx and VOCs for 10 SEMAP states, Maryland, and neighboring RPOs (28 sensitivity runs) • Statewide 30% emission reductions • Ozone season (5 months) at 12 km

  13. VOC/NOx Sensitivity Updates

  14. SEMAP Modeling Schedule

  15. Contact Information Jim Boylan, Ph.D.Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources4244 International Parkway, Suite 120Atlanta, GA 30354James.Boylan@dnr.state.ga.us 404-362-4851

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