Global urban sanitation system hotspots: mass markets for disruptive onsite wastewater treatment

1. The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)12 & 13 May 2011 Global urban sanitation system hotspots: mass markets for disruptive onsite wastewater treatment technologies? An European perspective Eckhard Störmer, Christian Binz, Bernhard Truffer Eawag (CH) and Z_punkt (D)

2. Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies • ToC • problem sketch: limitations of the dominant design for the new markets • the FTA approach: Technology Roadmapping for disruptive technologies • the results • mass markets • new technologies • market actors and new business concepts • conclusions

3. Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies • Problem sketch • Limitations of the successful sanitation solution of the OECD countries • high amount of water needed • high investment costs • low flexibility for growing or shrinking settlements

4. c Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies How can a mass market for onsite wastewater treatment be developed? • Problem sketch i.e. a radical shift in the paradigms of urban water management systems

5. Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies FTA approach: Innovation System Analysis with Technology Roadmapping • 1. Where are potential mass markets? • low sewer connection rates today • high city growth • water scarcity Hotspot- Analysis • 2. What solutions are feasible? • various technical concepts with source separation and recycling • incl. organizational concepts Option Variation- Analysis • 3. Who are the relevant industry partners? • Role and opportunities of • European small WWTP producers • transnational water industry • further related industry Actor- Analysis • 4. How can you get there? • R&D on technical components • strategies on going international • awareness building of experts and users Technology- Roadmapping

6. Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies Arctic Ocean Arctic Ocean Arctic Ocean Greenland (Den.) Norway U.S.A. Finland Iceland Estonia Sweden United Kingdom Canada Latvia Den. Lithuania Ireland Neth. Poland Germany Czech. Aus. Hung. France Switz. Romania North Atlantic Ocean Bulgaria Italy United States of America Albania Spain Portugal Turkey Greece North Pacific Ocean North Pacific Ocean Tunisia Morocco Algeria Libya Egypt The Bahamas Western Sahara (Mor.) Mexico Cuba Dominican Republic Mauritania Mali U. S. A. Jam. Niger Belize Haiti Sudan Puerto Rico (US) Dominica Senegal Honduras Chad Guatemala Burkina Faso The Gambia Barbados Nicaragua El Salvador Djibouti Guinea-Bissau Guinea Benin Trinidad and Tobago Costa Rica Côte D’Ivoire Nigeria Guyana Ethiopia Venezuela Sierra Leone C. A. R. Panama Suriname Liberia Cameroon French Guiana (Fr.) Somalia Togo Ghana Colombia Uganda Kenya Gabon Rwanda Ecuador Zaire Burundi Congo Tanzania Malawi Brazil Angola Peru Mozambique Zambia Bolivia Madagascar Zimbabwe Namibia French Polynesia (Fr.) Botswana Indian Ocean Paraguay Swaziland South Africa Lesotho Uruguay South Atlantic Ocean South Pacific Ocean Chile Argentina Severnaya Zemlya Ellesmere Island Franz Josef Land New Siberian Islands Svalbard (Nor.) Banks Island Novaya Zemlya Jan Mayen (Nor.) Wrangel Island • Results1: potential mass markets Victoria Island Baffin Island Faroe Is. (Den.) Russia 60° Aleutian Islands (USA) Belarus Bel. Ukraine Island of Newfoundland Kuril Islands Slovak. Kazakhstan Moldova Mongolia Slov. Cro. Yugo. Bos. Uzbekistan Georgia Mac. Kyrgyzstan Armenia Azerbaijan N. Korea Turkmenistan Tajikistan Japan S. Korea Syria Cyp. China Afghanistan Leb. Iran Iraq Israel Canary Islands (Sp.) Jordan Nepal Kuwait Pakistan Bhu. Qatar Bang. Taiwan Hawaiian Islands Saudi Arabia U. A. E. Myanmar (Burma) India Oman Laos Eritrea Yemen Thailand Philippines Vietnam Cambodia Andaman Islands (India) Marshall Islands Federated States of Micronesia Sri Lanka Brunei Guam (USA) Maldives Malaysia Eq. Guinea Singapore Kiribati Galapagos Islands (Ecuador) Indonesia Sao Tome & Principe Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands Seychelles Fiji New Caledonia Mauritius Australia Key driver New Zealand

7. Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies Severnaya Zemlya Ellesmere Island Franz Josef Land New Siberian Islands Svalbard (Nor.) Banks Island Novaya Zemlya Jan Mayen (Nor.) Wrangel Island • Results1: focus on „entry“ markets Victoria Island Baffin Island Faroe Is. (Den.) Russia 60° Aleutian Islands (USA) Belarus Bel. Ukraine Island of Newfoundland Kuril Islands Slovak. Kazakhstan Moldova Mongolia Slov. Cro. Yugo. Bos. Uzbekistan Georgia Mac. Kyrgyzstan Armenia Azerbaijan N. Korea Turkmenistan Tajikistan Japan S. Korea Syria Cyp. China Afghanistan Leb. Leb. Iran Iraq Israel Canary Islands (Sp.) Jordan Nepal Kuwait Pakistan Bhu. Qatar Bang. Taiwan Hawaiian Islands Saudi Arabia U. A. E. Myanmar (Burma) India Oman Laos Eritrea Yemen Thailand Philippines Vietnam Cambodia Andaman Islands (India) • Warum dieses Marktsegment? • ‚fairer‘ Wettbewerb mit zentral • Schwellenländer mit Dynamik • Neue Märkte für Sie • Wassersparen als Kerntreiber • Denken in neuer Gebäude- kategorie Marshall Islands Federated States of Micronesia Examples for entry markets 2020: Sri Lanka Brunei Guam (USA) Maldives Malaysia Eq. Guinea Singapore Kiribati Technological challenges water saving systems new dwellings, huge appartment blocks no low cost solutions Galapagos Islands (Ecuador) Indonesia Sao Tome & Principe Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands Seychelles Regions with water scarcity and fast growing cities no “poor” countries Fiji New Caledonia Mauritius Australia New Zealand Medium to low sewerage Water scarcity City growth

8. Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies Results1: entry market segments 2nd step 2nd step Single family house Small appartment house Large appartment house Hotel „No-frills“ or water intensive Office building Australia Post Headquarter (with decent bw recycling)Source: http://www.triqua.eu/triqua/fs3_site.nsf/htmlViewDocuments/69A6881A6987EE4AC12573D0003E86E2

9. Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies Results2: actor setting

10. Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies Results3: technology variants of next generation

11. Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies OST 2 OST 3 OST 1

12. Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies • Business services are important add on

13. Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies common development needs Water saving technology Recycling shower (Point of Use-Recycling) additional „features“ 1 liter toilet Energy recycling Heat recovery Anaerobial MBR + biogas production Enhancement in water desinfection Membran technique Basics for water recycling with OST UV-treatment chemical additives Development in sensor technologies and remote control Basics for the operation of OST fleets • Managementsystems • o&m concepts • finance and ownership concepts Businessmodel – Contracting caretaker principle remote control and maintenance

14. Mass markets for disruptive wwt technologies • Conclusions • The next generation of OST seems to be far away, but first steps are already taken • Technologies are nice, but do not work without service concepts – Shift in the self-conception of producers is needed • New mass markets seem to be too risky for German producers – they risk to loose their international dominance • Technology Roadmapping with additional Innovation System Analysis has the potential to uncover the logic of a system change