CONSIDERATIONS FOR 21ST CENTURY FREIGHT MOVEMENT

1. CONSIDERATIONS FOR 21ST CENTURY FREIGHT MOVEMENT Dr. Steve Roop Assistant Director Texas Transportation Institute

3. Freight Transportation: Convergence of Critical Issues: Over the Next Two Decades: Increase demand on highways Increase in maintenance expenditures Decrease in funds available for capacity expansion Diminishing returns on highway expenditures Projected growth in freight Increased truck traffic Environmental issues & restrictions Homeland security constraints Insufficient public funds available to address transportation needs

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5. U.S. Domestic Freight Tonnage Growth Forecasts by Mode, 2000-2020

6. Federal and State Expenditures for All Transportation Modes

7. Obligation on Federal Funds for Roadway Projects by Improvement Types

8. Transportation Fuel Considerations Oil Dependency

9. Anticipating the Peak

10. Anticipating the Peak

14. Current Freight Issues Demand on highways is increasing while lane-miles remain constant

15. Congested Highways, 2000Congestion Disrupts Freight-Truck Service by Making Trips Slower, Less Reliable, and More Expensive

17. Highway Safety Highway Injuries & Fatalities 2.9 million injured persons in 2002 42,815 fatalities in 2002 Economic Impacts of Motor Vehicle Crashes Crashes in the United States cost an estimated $231 billion; $820 per person; or 2% of the Gross Domestic Product

18. Current Freight Issues - Rail Transportation Public Policy Characterized By: Growing recognition that freight rail is a critical component of the nation�s goods movement system Actively seeking assistance from rail to stem the growing tide in freight volumes

19. Current Freight Issues - Rail Railroads are increasingly receptive to appropriately configured public-private partnership opportunities: Alameda Corridor Chicago CREATE Project Virginia I-81 Balance public-private benefits Represents a major departure from historic, independent stance

20. Current Freight Rail Issues � Public-Private Partnerships

21. Miles of Rail Line in the US

22. Railroad Productivity is Increasing

23. Decline in Rail Rates Versus Other Modes Following Deregulation

24. Declining Freight-Rail Revenue per Ton-Mile

25. Class I Railroad Return on Investment Versus Cost of Capital

26. Needed Capital Expenditures Exceed Class I Funds Available for Reinvestment

27. Railroad Capital Needs are Far More Intensive Than Other Industries

28. Emerging Freight Rail Strategy Railroads are beginning to evaluate revenues by each major commodity category Network congestion, Crew and locomotive shortages, Rising fuel prices An emerging business strategy may result in the shedding of some commodity groups: Control volume of business in several key corridors and terminals Increase loads having higher profit margins Recent decision to reduce aggregate car-loadings by 1/3 in Texas Require unit-train operations

29. Projected Rail Growth and Investment Over the Next 20 Years

30. Projected Rail Growth and Investment Over the Next 20 Years

31. Projected Rail Growth and Investment Over the Next 20 Years

32. * Comparison of Constrained and Aggressive Investments The 20-year Cost of Failure to Invest in Freight Rail Infrastructure

33. Current Freight Rail Funding Programs: Potential Approaches to Freight Rail Funding: Rail User Fees/Surcharges (Alameda Corridor) Direct Federal Appropriations CMAQ Program Grants Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (TIFIA) Railroad Rehabilitation and Improvement Finance Program (RRIF) Borders and Corridors Federal Tax-Credit Bond-Financing Programs Tax Exempt Debt for Railroad Infrastructure Infrastructure Tax Credit

34. Critical Issues Affecting Trucking Trucking is the dominant freight mode Carries approximately 90% of intercity freight Industry revenues approaching 10 times that of rail Has advantage in door-to-door flexibility Low market entry costs Transit speed Public right of way

35. Critical Issues Affecting Trucking Trucking concerns: Highly competitive mode Thin margins High variable costs Sensitivity to fuel prices Driver issues Recruitment Training Retention Hours of service Safety Size and weight

36. Desirable Characteristics for 21st Century Freight Movement Separation of Freight and Passenger Traffic Safety Productivity Grade Separation Safety Productivity Alternative Energy Sources Oil independence Cost containment Automation Cost containment Simplicity of Design Reliability Cost containment Compatibility with JIT delivery strategies Cost containment Security

37. Desirable Characteristics for 21st Century Freight Movement Separation of Freight and Passenger Traffic Truck-only lanes Truck toll facilities Urban by-pass routes Additional private-sector opportunities to design, build, operate, and maintain highway infrastructure

38. Desirable Characteristics for 21st Century Freight Movement Energy Independence Evaluation of Alternatives Policy Support � added incentives Security Inspection Tracking Route designation

39. 21st Century Freight Movement Needed: New Approaches Public-private cooperation Additional funding Trucking-rail alliances Facility relocation Urban by-passes New technologies

40. Introduction to TransDec2.0A Multimodal / Multicriteria Decision Framework Texas Transportation Institute

41. TransDec2.0 Multicriteria Approach Decisions often require trade-offs Contemplation of competing or conflicting objectives Reliance on a variety of measures Different scales Variety of metrics Objective and subjective factors Need to consider measures other than dollars

42. TransDec2.0 Provides a Framework Within Which to Rank and Select Alternative Projects Results in a Single Index Provides Component Contributions Allows Modification and Updates Stores, Reports, and Prints Results

43. TransDec2.0 A Common Decision Framework: Establish Broad Hierarchy of Goals Safety Environment Mobility Cost effectiveness Define Objectives that address each goal Usually discrete efforts or processes Select performance measures that reflect achievement of the objectives Define rating scales and preferred outcomes

44. TransDec2.0 Rating Scales Numerical Project cost per pound of emissions eliminated (low value preferred) Average free flow traffic speed (high value preferred) Categorical Ratings or Rankings High, Medium, Low Level of Service � A, B, C, D, F Binary Yes, No

45. TransDec2.0 Combination of Diverse Scales and Measures is Accomplished by Mapping All Scales to a Universal 10-point Metric

46. TransDec2.0 Continuous Scale Mapping:

47. TransDec2.0 Once Criteria and Performance Measures are Established: Define Alternative Projects Collect and Input Data Establish Objective Weights Evaluate Project Alternatives Independent (orthogonal) Single Index Component Displays

48. TransDec2.0 In Summary: TransDec is a Multicriteria Cross Modal Evaluation Framework Each Evaluation May be Tailored to Situation / Need Consensus Building Tool Readily Understood and Communicated Amenable to �what-if� Testing Through Alteration of Weights

49. TransDec2.0 Example: Selecting One Project That Best Achieves Both Safety and Mobility Objectives Competing � Conflicting Objectives Safety vs. mobility Cost vs. impact Immediate vs. long term benefits Differential Emphasis What is valued � how are weights distributed? Addition of New Criteria

51. TransDec2.0 User Interface

52. Presents a Step by Step Process

53. Allows User to Define the Structure of the Evaluation�

54. Establish Measurement Scales Suited to the Issues at Hand�

55. Define Alternatives�

56. TransDec2.0 Forms an Evaluation Matrix Based on User Specifications

57. TransDec2.0 Evaluation Reports

58. TransDec2.0 Contact Information: Dr. Steve Roop Assistant Director Texas Transportation Institute Texas A&M University System College Station, TX 77843-3135 (979) 845-5817 s-roop@tamu.edu