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HOW SHOULD WE MANAGE FLOOD RISKS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE?

HOW SHOULD WE MANAGE FLOOD RISKS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE?. Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI. OUTLINE. Typical flood scenarios in Wisconsin Expected impact of climate change on Wisconsin flooding Adaptation strategies

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HOW SHOULD WE MANAGE FLOOD RISKS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE?

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  1. HOW SHOULD WE MANAGE FLOOD RISKS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE? Ken Potter Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin Madison, WI

  2. OUTLINE • Typical flood scenarios in Wisconsin • Expected impact of climate change on Wisconsin flooding • Adaptation strategies • Land use and land management impacts on flooding (urban and agricultural) • Critical gaps in Wisconsin policies on land use and land management

  3. TYPICAL FLOODING SCENARIOS IN WISCONSIN • Local storm water flooding (extreme rainfall over minutes to hours) • Stream/river flooding (extreme rainfall over days, preceded by significant rainfall over weeks and/or snowmelt) • Lake flooding (extreme amount of rainfall over weeks to months) • Groundwater flooding (extreme amount of rainfall and snow over months or even years)

  4. Madison, WI, July 27, 2006: 4 inches of torrential rain deluged the UW-Madison campus in a half hour, flooding nearby streets, parking lots, and walkways.

  5. TYPICAL FLOODING SCENARIOS IN WISCONSIN • Local storm water flooding (extreme rainfall over minutes to hours) • Stream/river flooding (extreme rainfall over days, preceded by significant rainfall over weeks and/or snowmelt) • Lake flooding (extreme amount of rainfall over weeks to months) • Groundwater flooding (extreme amount of rainfall and snow over months or even years)

  6. HISTORICAL FLOOD RECORD KICKAPOO RIVER AT STEUBEN

  7. TYPICAL FLOODING SCENARIOS IN WISCONSIN • Local storm water flooding (extreme rainfall over minutes to hours) • Stream/river flooding (extreme rainfall over days, preceded by significant rainfall over weeks and/or snowmelt) • Lake flooding (extreme amount of rainfall over weeks to months) • Groundwater flooding (extreme amount of rainfall and snow over months or even years)

  8. Lake Delton, Wisconsin 2008

  9. TYPICAL FLOODING SCENARIOS IN WISCONSIN • Local storm water flooding (extreme rainfall over minutes to hours) • Stream/river flooding (extreme rainfall over days, preceded by significant rainfall over weeks and/or snowmelt) • Lake flooding (extreme rainfall over weeks to months) • Groundwater flooding (extreme amount of rainfall and snow over months or years)

  10. SPRING GREEN, 2008 Peter Gorman

  11. IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR FLOODING IN WISCONSIN • Extreme rainfalls will become larger and more frequent. • The amount of rainfall and snow in spring will increase. These changes will increase flooding associated with all of the typical flooding scenarios in Wisconsin.

  12. ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE • Develop technical capacity to estimate impact of climate change on flood potential • Assess vulnerabilities • Develop and apply appropriate strategies to reduce vulnerability to acceptable levels • Modify policies and rules regarding the design and development of new infrastructure affected by or controlling storm and flood waters

  13. WISCONSIN INITIATIVE ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS • Partnership between the University of Wisconsin and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources • Goals are to assess climate change impacts in Wisconsin, evaluate potential economic affects, and recommend adaptation strategies. • More information available from http://wicci.wisc.edu/

  14. LANDUSE AND LAND MANAGEMENT Historically, changes in land use and land management have been the most important factors affecting flood damages in Wisconsin (and the U.S. in general). • Agricultural development, particularly in southwest Wisconsin, led to huge increases in flooding and flood damage; mitigated by adoption of land conservation practices by Wisconsin farmers.

  15. HISTORICAL FLOOD RECORDEAST BRANCH OF THE PECATONICA RIVER

  16. COON CREEK- 1955 Soil Conservation Service

  17. LANDUSE AND MANAGEMENT • Urbanization has greatly increased local flooding as well as flooding on streams and lakes. In developed areas, expensive measures have been used to help mitigate these impacts.

  18. MENOMONEE RIVER • Highly urbanized watershed in the Milwaukee River basin. • Floods in 1997, 1998, and 2000 caused $96M in damages. • MMSD is currently addressing problem with 9 projects, including a $84M detention basin.

  19. GAPS IN WISCONSIN POLICY • There no statewide requirements for managing storm water to prevent increases in flooding. • At all levels of government there is little to prevent development in areas susceptible to ground water flooding. • Land conservation in agricultural areas is largely voluntary unless cost-sharing funds are available. Under those conditions it is difficult to prevent adoption of land uses and management practices that drastically increase floods.

  20. GAPS IN WISCONSIN POLICY Failure to close these gaps will increase floods and flood damages in the future, independent of climate change.

  21. QUESTIONS?

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