The Global Local Process

1. The Global Local Process By Rory, Julie, Jerry, Rudy

2. Objectives of this Presentation • Show the current trend in population and energy growth. • Show the connection between the two. • From there, extrapolate this connection into the Global context.

3. Three points of Population Trends • Rural to urban migration from 1900-1950 • Urban to suburban migration from 1950-2000 • Similarities around the world

5. Twin Cities Metro Area • Metro Area consists of seven major counties: Anoka, Hennepin, Carver, Scott, Dakota, Ramsey and Washington.

6. Overview of Population Change of Minnesota and the Twin Cities Metro Area From 1900-2000 • Population of both the Twin Cities and Minnesota grew dramatically • World population grew 4 times larger

7. Global Population Growth

8. Population Growth of Minnesota

9. Population Growth of the Twin Cities Metro Area

10. Population growth of the Twin Cities by county

11. Rural to Urban Migration

14. Population Trends 1960-2000 • Population movement from Urban to Suburban • Less people in more houses • Urban Sprawling

18. Population change 1960-2000

19. The Bottom Line

20. 1950-2000 • 64% live in Urban Areas in 1950 • 79% live in Urban Areas in 2000 • Urban land population increased 87% • Urban population density decreased 54% • Urban land area increased 400% • Average number of people per houshold decreased from 3.47 to 2.68 • Number of household increased 142%

21. Decrease in Population density in Metro Centers around the world • 30% Western Europe • 32% Australia • 33% Canada • 18% Japan Example Paris, New York and Tokyo have all lost 60% of their population since 1900

22. Minnesota Residential Energy Consumption Estimates in 1960 • Coal – 557 thousand short tons • Natural Gas – 61 billion cubic feet • Petroleum – 10,270 thousand barrels • Wood – 878 thousand cords • Electricity – 4,186 million kilowatt-hours Sources: Energy Information Administrative

23. Minnesota Residential Energy Consumption Estimates in 1970 • Coal – 320 thousand short tons • Natural Gas – 102 billion cubic feet • Petroleum – 14,782 thousand barrels • Wood – 560 thousand cords • Electricity – 9,031 million kilowatt-hours Sources: Energy Information Administrative

24. Minnesota Residential Energy Consumption Estimates in 1980 • Coal – 30 thousand short tons • Natural Gas – 103 billion cubic feet • Petroleum – 8,989 thousand barrels • Wood – 893 thousand cords • Electricity – 11,749 million kilowatt-hours Sources: Energy Information Administrative

25. Minnesota Residential Energy Consumption Estimates in 1990 • Coal – 22 thousand short tons • Natural Gas – 107 billion cubic feet • Petroleum – 6,185 thousand barrels • Wood – 562 thousand cords • Electricity – 14,858 million kilowatt-hours Sources: Energy Information Administrative

26. Minnesota Residential Energy Consumption Estimates in 2000 • Coal – 1 thousand short tons • Natural Gas – 129 billion cubic feet • Petroleum – 7,730 thousand barrels • Wood – 409 thousand cords • Electricity – 18,629 million kilowatt-hours Sources: Energy Information Administrative

27. Minnesota Industry Generating Capability by Primary Energy Source, 1999 Sources: Energy Information Administrative

28. Municipal Solid WasteGenerated by the Seven Counties (Tons) Sources: Minnesota Office of Environmental Assistance

29. Energy Consumption A discussion of Minnesota's rapid population growth is strangely absent in all state energy reports, even those projecting energy use!

30. State’s Energy Proposals • Conservation of existing energy sources • Construction of additional sources of energy, natural gas peaking plants, and renewable and alternative energies, primarily wind power; and • Increasing prices to ration consumer use

31. Minnesota’s Future Energy Demands • In 1998 Minnesota produced a total of 1,419 trillion BTUs of energy and consumed a total of 1,261.3 trillion BTUs • The difference between production and consumption are due to infrastructure losses

32. Minnesota Energy Inputs by Source

33. Minnesota Energy Inputs by Source • Wind/Solar/Other 3 0.21%Total 1261 100.0% • Trillion BTUs. *Includes wood and burning of wastes. Data from Minnesota Energy Planning Report

34. Minnesota Energy use by Economic Area Economic Area Btu’s Percent Commercial 137 10.9% Residential 212 16.8% Industrial 450 35.6% Transportation 462 36.7% Total 1261 100.0% Trillion BTUs EIA data. See at < http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs/tables/enduse_consump.html

35. Population Growth and Projected Energy Demands

36. Projected Construction Costs and New Generation Under the Status Quo Growth Scenario (000,000) • Under the current growth scenario, between $250 and $500 million, or more, of power generation construction is required every year for the foreseeable future

37. Projected Construction Costs & New GenerationUnder the Status Quo Growth Scenario ($000,000)

44. Concluding comments Quote from Daniel Quinn, 2002.