1 / 26

Modeling Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change The San Pedro Basin Study Case

Modeling Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change The San Pedro Basin Study Case. Aleix Serrat-Capdevila, Juan B Valdes, Javier Gonzalez, Kate Baird , Luis J. Mata, Thomas Maddock III. Evaluate range of potential impacts of climate change projections on the hydrology of the Basin.

kathrynej
Download Presentation

Modeling Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change The San Pedro Basin Study Case

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Modeling Hydrological Impacts of Climate ChangeThe San Pedro Basin Study Case Aleix Serrat-Capdevila, Juan B Valdes, Javier Gonzalez, Kate Baird, Luis J. Mata, Thomas Maddock III

  2. Evaluate range of potential impacts of climate change projections on the hydrology of the Basin. Include range of results in DSS model of the San Pedro Basin to support local policy actions Scope of the Research

  3. San Pedro Basin: Growing population, development pressure Unsustainable aquifer pumping Endangering Riparian National Conservation Area (SPRNCA) Congress mandate: “safe yield” by 2011 Mountain Front Recharge 100 year effect propagation Alluvial Recharge Relevance

  4. Hydro-climatology Adapted from Comrie and Glenn (1998)

  5. Regional Precipitation Estimates GCM Models MF Recharge ET Local Recharge Data “Adaptation” Downscaling Alluvial Recharge GW Hydrologic Model Methods

  6. 17 Global Climate Models: Mean & 4 extreme modelswettest, driest, hottest, coldest (*) (WM-95, ECH-395, CERF-98, CCSR-96) . (*) Using the regional mean. GCMs and Scenarios • 4 Emission Scenarios: • IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A1 MES, A2 MES, B1 MES, B2 MES.

  7. Temperature projections: Scenarios A1 &A2 73.4 F 70 F 65 F

  8. Temperature projections: Scenarios B1 &B2 70.7 F 68 F 65 F

  9. Rain projections: Scenario A1 MES

  10. Rain projections: Scenario A1 MES

  11. Regional Precipitation Estimates GCM Models MF Recharge ET Local Recharge Downscaling Alluvial Recharge GW Hydrologic Model Outline

  12. Yearly estimates 5x5 deg. latlong 1/8x1/8 deg. latlong

  13. From RAIN to RECHARGEUsing Anderson (1992): Experimental Regression Method For each of the 4 scenarios

  14. Regional Precipitation Estimates GCM Models MF Recharge ET Local Recharge Data “Adaptation” Alluvial Recharge GW Hydrologic Model Outline

  15. Hydrologic Model ET MF Recharge Channel Recharge

  16. Hydrologic Model of the San Pedro Basin (by Goode, Maddock, Baird 2000) Run for 2000-2100 using current pumping rates Decreasing recharge rates implemented Long Term Hydrologic Response Hydrologic Model Runs Hydrologic Model • Hydrologic Model of the San Pedro Basin (by Goode, Maddock, Baird 2000) • Run for 2000-2100 using current pumping rates • Decreasing recharge rates implemented Long Term Hydrologic Response

  17. Preliminary Results

  18. RECHARGE – scenario Averages

  19. RECHARGE (A1 MES scenario)

  20. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (A1 MES scenario)

  21. NET STREAM GAIN (A1 TMES scenario)

  22. Challenges & Ongoing Work

  23. Key questions: • How is climate change affecting SEASONAL and SPATIAL patterns ? • How can we quantify/model these changes ? • Key needs: • Accurate methods to quantify seasonal recharge • Inclusion of temperature effects on evapotranspiration • Compare effects with different basins (regimes)

  24. Questions?

  25. Supporting local policy

  26. Inclusion of Results in a DSS Management Tool

More Related