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Farm Forestry Situation and Outlook 2008/2009

Farm Forestry Situation and Outlook 2008/2009. James Breen 1 and Mary Ryan 2 1 Rural Economy Research Centre, 2 Forestry Development Unit Teagasc. Outline. New planting rates Current trends Profile of farmers with forests Review of timber markets Profile of farmers intending to plant

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Farm Forestry Situation and Outlook 2008/2009

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  1. Farm ForestrySituation and Outlook2008/2009 James Breen1 and Mary Ryan2 1Rural Economy Research Centre, 2Forestry Development Unit Teagasc

  2. Outline • New planting rates • Current trends • Profile of farmers with forests • Review of timber markets • Profile of farmers intending to plant • Summary

  3. Irish Afforestation Rates 1982 - 2007 Source: Forest Service 2007

  4. Farm Afforestation rates by region 1990 to 2007 Source: Forest Service 2007

  5. Farm Afforestation rates by region 1990 to 2007 Source: Forest Service 2007

  6. Farm Afforestation rates by region 1990 to 2007 Source: Forest Service 2007

  7. Divergence between Premium Payments and Private Planting

  8. Divergence between Premium Payments and Private Planting

  9. Barriers to Afforestation • Potential value of unplanted land • No REPS payment on forestry • Forestry is a permanent decision • Need all my land for agriculture • Dislike forestry • Other Source: National Farm Survey 2006

  10. Main Reason For Not Planting Source: National Farm Survey 2006

  11. Farms with Forests 2007 • Survey represents 7,200 farms with forests • 6.5% of all farms • Average farm size: • Farms with forests = 62.7 ha • Farms without forests = 33.7 ha • Average forest premium payment: €4,428/yr

  12. Farms with Forests 2007 Source: National Farm Survey 2007

  13. Review and Outlook for Markets • New opportunities: • >60 industrial wood chip boilers • 2,000 ha of thinnings • Carbon sequestration potential • Increase in thinning activity • General Felling Licences: 102 in 2005 to 692 in 2008 • 2007 – Record year –Coillte supplied 87% • Decline in forecast for 2009 house starts according to Home Bond.

  14. Coillte Roadside Large Sawlog Price Index – 1992 to Present Source: Coillte 2008

  15. Returns to Farm Forest Owners

  16. Farmer Planting Intentions • Survey population represents 5,100 farms (4.5% of pop) stated intention to plant in the next three years • Area to be planted 36,700 ha • Approx 1% of U.A.A. • But represents 13% of U.A.A. on those farms Source: National Farm Survey 2007

  17. Farmer Planting Intentions • Larger Farms 56 ha of U.A.A. vs 36 ha • 2,500 (50%) were in REPS • 1,700 (33%) were in REPS and had >40 ha therefore could benefit from FEPS • 38% of farmers who intend to plant already have a forest

  18. Farmer Planting Intentions Source: National Farm Survey 2007

  19. Summary • Significant levelling off in new planting area • Policy moving towards more environmental focus • Shift in species and type of land being planted • Decline in construction industry • Cyclical timber prices • New opportunities • Forests eligible for SFP • Variety of reasons for decline in planting both economic and social.

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