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ECON 339X: Agricultural Marketing

ECON 339X: Agricultural Marketing. Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. Today’s Topic. Milk Production. Milk Industry. Milk Usage. Source: Agricultural Statistics, USDA-NASS. Per Capita Dairy Consumption. Source: FAPRI, 2009 Outlook.

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ECON 339X: Agricultural Marketing

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  1. ECON 339X: Agricultural Marketing Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. Today’s Topic

  3. Milk Production

  4. Milk Industry

  5. Milk Usage Source: Agricultural Statistics, USDA-NASS

  6. Per Capita Dairy Consumption Source: FAPRI, 2009 Outlook

  7. Per Capita Dairy Consumption Source: FAPRI, 2009 Outlook

  8. What’s in Milk? SOLIDS CWT Butterfat 3.67 lbs. Protein 3.20 lbs. Lactose 4.75 lbs. Ash/Minerals .65 lbs. WATER 87.73 lbs. TOTAL 100.00 lbs. Source: Dr. Ginder, ISU

  9. Component Pricing • A payment plan that prices milk based on two or more component parts • Possible components which could be used include • Milk fat • Protein • Total solids (TS) • Solids not fat (SNF) • Lactose/Minerals/Ash • Water Source: Dr. Ginder, ISU

  10. Classes of Milk Source: Dr. Ginder, ISU

  11. Milk Usage Source: Agricultural Statistics, USDA-NASS

  12. Marketing Orders A federal (or state) regulation which places requirements on market transactions in a given area Exists for several commodities, including milk, fruits, and vegetables Biggest requirement: minimum prices for the commodities, based on usage

  13. Milk Prices by Class Given milk’s 4 classes, the Federal government has developed pricing formulas for each class The class prices rely on average prices for dairy products, such as butter, cheese, and skim milk The class prices are set monthly Class I prices are set before the month begins Classes II, III, and IV prices are set after the month ends

  14. Milk Prices by Class • Class I prices depend on advanced prices, dairy product prices before the pricing month, and is announced before the month begins • Advanced prices are two-week average prices for butter, nonfat dry milk, cheese, and dry whey • These advanced prices are taken roughly in the middle of the preceding month • So for example, the Class I milk price for March depends on the dairy product prices from mid-February

  15. Timing of Advanced Prices Source: USDA-AMS

  16. Milk Prices by Class • The other class prices depend on dairy product prices during the pricing month, and are announced after the month ends • These prices are four-to-five-week average prices for butter, nonfat dry milk, cheese, and dry whey • These prices are taken throughout the month • So for example, the Class III milk price for March depends on the dairy product prices from March and will not be announced until April

  17. Timing of Prices Source: USDA-AMS

  18. Class IV Price Class IV Price = Class IV Skim Milk Price * 0.965 + Butterfat Price * 3.5 The price formula values 100 pounds of Class IV milk as: 96.5 pounds of Class IV Skim Milk and 3.5 pounds of Butterfat The formulas for the other classes follow this rule as well

  19. Class IV Price Class IV Price = Class IV Skim Milk Price * 0.965 + Butterfat Price * 3.5 Butterfat Price = (Butter Price – $0.1715) * 1.211 $0.1715 is a make allowance, USDA’s estimate on the additional costs to produce butter 1.211 is a yield factor, USDA’s estimate of the conversion from butterfat to butter There are several make allowance and yield factor adjustments in milk pricing

  20. Class IV Price Class IV Price = Class IV Skim Milk Price * 0.965 + Butterfat Price * 3.5 Class IV Skim Milk Price = Nonfat Solids Price * 9 Nonfat Solids Price = (Nonfat Dry Milk Price – $0.1678) * 0.99

  21. Class IV Price for Feb. 2010 Class IV Price = Class IV Skim Milk Price * 0.965 + Butterfat Price * 3.5 Butter Price = $1.3609/pound Nonfat Dry Milk Price = $1.0812/pound Butterfat Price = (Butter Price – $0.1715) * 1.211 = $1.4404/pound Nonfat Solids Price = (Nonfat Dry Milk Price – $0.1678) * 0.99 = $0.9043/pound Class IV Skim Milk Price = Nonfat Solids Price * 9 = $8.14/cwt. Class IV Price = $12.90/cwt.

  22. Simplifying Class IV Price Class IV Price = Butterfat Price * 3.5 + Class IV Skim Milk Price * 0.965 Class IV Price = (Butter Price – $0.1715) * 1.211* 3.5 + Nonfat Solids Price * 9 * 0.965 Class IV Price = (Butter Price – $0.1715) * 1.211* 3.5 + (Nonfat Dry Milk Price – $0.1678) * 0.99* 9 * 0.965 Class IV Price = 4.2385 * Butter Price + 8.59815 * Nonfat Dry Milk Price – $2.1697

  23. Class III Price Class III Price = Class III Skim Milk Price * 0.965 + Butterfat Price * 3.5 Butterfat Price = (Butter Price – $0.1715) * 1.211 Class III Skim Milk Price = Protein Price * 3.1 + Other Solids Price * 5.9 Other Solids Price = (Dry Whey Price – $0.1991) * 1.03

  24. Class III Price Class III Price = Class III Skim Milk Price * 0.965 + Butterfat Price * 3.5 Protein Price = (Cheese Price – $0.2003) * 1.383 + (((Cheese Price – $0.2003) * 1.572) – Butterfat Price * 0.9) * 1.17 The first part of the protein price reflects the value of the protein in cheese The second part of the protein price reflects the additional value of butterfat to cheese versus butter

  25. Class III Price Class III Price = Class III Skim Milk Price * 0.965 + Butterfat Price * 3.5 Class III Price = f(Cheese Price, Butter Price, Dry Whey Price) For February 2010: Cheese Price = $1.5110/pound Butter Price = $1.3609/pound Dry Whey Price = $0.3925/pound Class III Price = $14.28/cwt.

  26. Class II Price Class II Price = Class II Skim Milk Price * 0.965 + Class II Butterfat Price * 3.5 Class II Butterfat Price = Butterfat Price + $0.007 So Class II Price depends on Butterfat Price from Classes III and IV Class II Skim Milk Price = Advanced Class IV Skim Milk Price + $0.70 Class II Skim Milk Price uses advanced price for Nonfat Dry Milk in Class IV Skim Milk Price formula

  27. Class II Price Class II Price = Class II Skim Milk Price * 0.965 + Class II Butterfat Price * 3.5 Class II Price depends on the previous month’s Nonfat Dry Milk Prices and the current month’s Butter Prices For February 2010, the Class II Price depended on: Nonfat Dry Milk Prices from Jan. 9 and 16 Butter Prices from Feb. 6, 13, 20, and 27

  28. Class II Price Class II Price = Class II Skim Milk Price * 0.965 + Class II Butterfat Price * 3.5 For February 2010: Advanced Nonfat Dry Milk Price = $1.1431/pound Butter Price = $1.3609/pound Class II Butterfat Price = $1.4474/pound Class II Skim Milk Price = $9.39/cwt. Class II Price = $15.65/cwt.

  29. Class I Price Class I Price = Class I Skim Milk Price * 0.965 + Class I Butterfat Price * 3.5 Class I Skim Milk Price = Higher of Advanced Class III Skim Milk Price or Advanced Class IV Skim Milk Price Class I Butterfat Price = Advanced Class III Butterfat Price These calculations give a base Class I Price, which is adjusted for location

  30. Class I Price Differentials Source: USDA-AMS

  31. Class web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/classes/econ339/hart-lawrence/

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