Chapter 2 Key Issue 4

1. Chapter 2Key Issue 4 Why might the world face an overpopulation problem?

2. Key Issue 4 • Malthus on overpopulation • Declining birth rates • World health threats

3. Why does global population growth matter? • Will there soon be too many of us? • Will continued population lead to: • Global starvation? • War? • Lower quality of life? • Video • Video

4. Malthus on Overpopulation • Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) • English economist • 1st to argue world’s population increase is growing faster than development of food supplies

5. Malthus on Overpopulation • An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798 • Population growing faster than food supply • Population grows geometrically • Food supply grows arithmetically • Chart created after Industrial Revolution • “Moral restraint” is solution to reduce NIR Today: 1 person, 1 unit of food 25 years from now: 2 persons, 2 units of food 50 years from now: 4 persons, 3 units of food 75 years from now: 8 persons, 4 units of food 100 years from now: 16 persons, 5 units of food

6. Neo-Malthusians • Contemporary geographers & analysts • Examine Malthus’ theory from 1798 • Malthus did not predict the rapid population growth in LDCs (medical technology) • World population is depleting Earth’s resources (food & energy) • War & civil violence will increase due to limitations of food, clean air, suitable farmland and fuel

7. Malthus's Critics • Critics analyze theory of population growth & resource depletion • Critics argue that supply of resources is NOT fixed, it’s expanding • New technology: • Humans can expand supply of food & resources: use resources more efficiently & finding new ones

8. Malthus’s Critics • Population growth can stimulate economy • More people to produce more food • More brains for new technology • Improve life • Argue no cause & effect relationship with population growth & economic development • Poverty, hunger & welfare are caused by unjust social & economic institutions, not population size

9. Malthus’s Critics • African leaders • Argue high population is good for country • Greater power • More young men = larger military

10. With A Partner • One of you will need to AGREE with Malthus • One of you will need to DISAGREE with Malthus • Write an 8-10 sentence dialogue about Malthus’s theory on overpopulation • Use your Cornell Notes, Newspaper Articles & Pg.68-69 in Textbook

11. Declining Birth Rates • Geographers agree that parts of world may run out of food resources

12. Declining Birth Rates • Malthus’ theory not supported on evidence of past 500yrs • Food production has grown faster than predicted • Better growing techniques, cultivation of more land, etc • Food IS there, just not distributed evenly • Malthus over predicted population growth

13. Reasons for Declining Birth Rates • Only declines for 2 reasons • Lower birth rates • Higher death rates • No one wants more deaths • CBR is declining on global scale, 27 to 21 • MDCs 15 to 10 • LDCs 31 to 24

14. Economic Development • Wealthier Communities • More money for education • Health care programs • Lowers birth rates

15. Economic Development • More education = less children • Employment skills • Economic control • Reproductive rights • Informed choices • Prenatal care • Counseling about STDs • Child immunization

16. Family Planning

17. Distribution of Contraceptives • Modern contraceptives lower birth rates • LDCs have greater demand of contraceptives than its supply • Need to be distributed more, cheaper and faster • LDCs have increase use of contraceptives (up +50%) • African use of contraceptives still low (1/4 of women) • Latin America: 3/4 of women • Asia 2/3 of women • Cause: economics, religion, and education

18. Observations?

19. Distribution of Contraceptives • Women not viewed as highly in Africa • Low status: less education, less rights • Women feel more children = higher status

20. Distribution of Contraceptives • Objections to birth control • Political Reasons • Abortions against the law in some countries • Religious Reasons • Catholics, Protestants, Muslims, Hindus: prohibit BC

21. World Health Threats • Sub-Saharan Africa • Lower NIR due to higher CDRs: AIDS • Epidemiologic Transition • Causes of death in each stage of Dem. Trans. • Incidence, distribution & control of disease • Focus on scale & connection to prevent epidemics

22. Epidemiologic TransitionStages 1 and 2 • Stage 1 • Main cause of death: infectious and parasitic diseases • Accidents & attacks by animals & humans • Malthus “natural checks” on human population growths

23. Black Plague 1340-1380 • Stage 1 • Probably transmitted by fleas from rats • Spread by traders/merchants • Moved from coast to inland towns & rural areas • 25 million Europeans died (1347-1350) • Half of continent’s population • Wiped out entire towns/villages

24. Cholera • Stage 2 • Pandemic: disease that occurs over wide geographic area & large population • Poor popele crowded in cities during Indus. Rev • ½ million died in New York City, 1832 • Caused by contaminated sewage getting into water supply • Occurred in countries reaching Stage 2 because of overcrowding

25. Epidemiologic TransitionStages 3 and 4 • Degenerative & human-created diseases • Cardiovascular diseases (heart attacks) • Cancer • Vaccines • Decline in infectious diseases (polio, measles) • Medical advancements (cancer treatments), better diet, exercise, behavior al changes • Life expectancy lengthened

26. Epidemiologic TransitionPossible Stage 5 • Reemergence of infections & parasitic diseases • Could cause higher CDRs

27. Reason for Stage 5 • Three Reasons • 1) evolution • People’s resistance to drugs & insecticides • Antibiotics = new strains of viruses and bacteria • Malaria-nearly eradicated 1950s with DDT • Evolution of DDT resistant mosquitos

28. Reason for Stage 5 • 2) poverty • Tuberculosis TB • Nearly eradicated in MDCs • Still prevalent in LDCs because treatment • Long, expensive treatment

29. Reason for Stage 5 • 3) improved travel • Motor vehicles • Planes • Diseases carried world wide, exposing others • Avian Flu, pandemic: spread world wide at same time

30. AIDS • Currently most lethal epidemic • 99% of recent cases are in LDCs • Sub-saharan Africa • Heavily impacted • 2/3 of world’s HIV positive population • 9/10 of world’s infected children • Top Countries: South Africa, India, Caribbean

31. Chapter 2, Key Issue 4Summary The rate at which global population grew during the second half of the twentieth century was unprecedented in history. A dramatic decline in the death rate produced the increase. With death rates controlled, for the first time in history the most critical factors determining the size of the world’s population is the birth rate. Birth rates began to decline sharply during the 1990s, slowing world population growth and reducing fear of overpopulation in most regions. Scientists agree that the current rate of natural increase must be further reduced, but they disagree on the appropriate methods for achieving this goal.