1 / 5

WG4, interpretation and applications History and perspectives Geneva, 1.02.2017

This document discusses the history, perspectives, and challenges of postprocessing methods in COSMO, including the incorporation of FIELDEXTRA software and participation in projects such as CORSO. It also addresses the difficulties in exchanging methods and the need for optimized processing and presentation of higher-resolution ensembles. The future perspectives include the implementation of rapid update cycling and blending with observations, as well as the potential creation of an APP division for forecasting methods and education at MCH.

kbyrnes
Download Presentation

WG4, interpretation and applications History and perspectives Geneva, 1.02.2017

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. WG4, interpretation and applications History and perspectives Geneva, 1.02.2017 Pierre Eckert, scientific expert

  2. History 2001: Inventory of postprocessing methods, COSMO LEPS ~2008: separation of ensemble part to WG7 2009: Project INTERP (scale dependent verification), inclusion of FIELDEXTRA as universal postprocessingsoftware 2012: Project CORSO (winter Olympics SOCHI) Participation into activities: Verification and guidelines for forecasters Test suite Feed back from forecasters Specific applications (CAT, TS indices,…) …

  3. Difficulties Possible to establish a list of postprocessing method (was available on COSMOweb), but exchange impossible (various local output configurations, commercial restrictions) There are many national application developments (renewable energy, aviation,…) but again cross COSMO members difficult. Postprocessing and forecasters usually sit in other departments/divisions and do not participate to COSMO activities For instance, IVS has been presented by DWD at last GM, but willingness for cooperation has not been shown (at best information to WG4). Probably lack of time / motivation from WG4 coordinator

  4. Challenges Higher resolution / ensembles need optimised processing / presentation to users / forecasters Stratified verification is essential for establishing guidelines to users / forecasters I believe that the role of postprocessing correcting systematic errors / diagnose specific parameters (visibility/fog, aerosols, pollutants, 100m wind, turbulence,…) will decrease further because being part of the full model. Rapid update cycling (RUC) and blending with observations (NWC, very short range forecasting) will soon be implemented.

  5. Perspectives IVS program at DWD Creation of APP division (forecasting methods and education) at MCH Good integration of model development and forecasting in some services WG4 coordinator should leave the battle field (MCH and COSMO) by Nov. 2017. <10% chance for continuing part time for sometime. Workshop WG4, 5 7 2.2.2017 (analysis of situation) Discussion during CUS with SPM and DWD users (postprocessing, forecasting methods) • If possible audition by STC Write a position paper on role and participation of WG4 Discussion and decision in one of the next SMC (latest in September).

More Related