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The Pegaso project

The Pegaso project. ETC-ACC Background paper on Methods for assessing current and future coastal vulnerability to climate change Alejandro Iglesias-Campos, ETC-LUSI/Junta de Andalucía Alejandro Simón-Colina , ETC-LUSI / UAB Pablo Fraile-Jurado, Universidad de Sevilla

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The Pegaso project

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  1. The Pegaso project ETC-ACC Background paper on Methods for assessing current and future coastal vulnerability to climate change Alejandro Iglesias-Campos, ETC-LUSI/Junta de Andalucía Alejandro Simón-Colina , ETC-LUSI / UAB Pablo Fraile-Jurado, Universidad de Sevilla Nikki Hudgson, ETC-ACC / AEA Technology (Project Coordinator) Coastal Vulnerability Expert Workshop Under contract to: Copenhagen (DK) 28-29 October 2010

  2. Introduction This background paper is a draft and internal document of the EEA that identifies the main aspects of methods, data and models for assessing current and future coastal vulnerability to climate change. With this technical document the EEA intends to start the discussion on coastal vulnerability mapping among European experts and decision policy makers in this meeting.

  3. Objectives The objective for this BP is to assess coastal vulnerability mapping from the perspective of methodological options, observational evidence and future projections.

  4. Coastal Vulnerability Vulnerability defined as the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity” (IPCC 2007)

  5. Conceptual frameworkfor climate change impacts, vulnerability, disaster risks and adaptation options

  6. Coastal system as part of a wider picture Source: US CCSP The coastal system represents complex synergies amongst uses, including land, rivers and sea which require managing conflicts!

  7. The European Coast • More than 80 million inhabitants living by the Coast • Population growth • Tourism pressures • High artifitialization • Increase of coastal erosion • Pressures on Ecosystems and natural resources... ... All of these facts facilitates the modification of the coastal dynamics decreasing the resilience and adaptability.

  8. Sea Level Rise and Potential Drivers Global sea level change (eustasy) depending on the water volume in the oceans basins.

  9. Sea Level Rise and Potential Drivers Local sea-level changes related to the local sea-level fluctuations and the vertical local movements of the continental side.

  10. Data availability foranalysis and assessment Reference data • Digital elevation models • SRTM 90 • GTOPO 30 • GTOPO 5 • Socio – economic data • Population, and pop density. • Settlements • GDP • Economic sectors / transports • Corine Land Cover • 1990 – 2000 – 2006.... And 2012 soon 

  11. Other datasets Soil Sealing Coastlines Ecrins / Rivers Transports WISE Natura 2000

  12. Indicators and indexes Selection of existingindicatorsand potentialupdates. Development of new indicatorsattendingtheneeds of theEEA. Application of theCVI in theEuropeancoasts.

  13. Inundation Models - Bathtub

  14. SLAMM Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model

  15. BTELSS - Barataria-TerrebonneEcosystem Landscape Spatial Simulation

  16. SimCLIM

  17. DIVA Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment

  18. FUND – Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution

  19. Models All models summarised in this BP, excepttheinundation model, havecommonproblems: • Local purposes, notlargestudyareasallowed. • Largeareas, lack of goodquality and homogeneous data inputs. • Weakavailability and access to technicaldocumentation • Highexpertise is required to runthe model. • Additionalscientificexpertise is alsorequired to analyse models’ outcomes.

  20. Opportunities for analysis Coastal vulnerability and impact assessments in specific coastal areas (cities, natural zones, sea ports, etc). Model analysis for monitoring future changes and impacts. Integrative terrestrial and marine coastal assessments using a continuous land topography and bathymetry. Development of the Coastal Vulnerability Index for Europe.

  21. Next steps • To update or to prepare new datasets according the EEA needs. • To analyse the effectiveness of the records from the tide gauges and its distribution. • To select a list of models for assessing coastal vulnerability and to test it at regional or national level. • A EU Database using regional and national datasets in order to support the analytical work. • To define potential coastal vulnerability indicators.

  22. ¡Muchas gracias! Moltes gràcies Eskerrik Asko Moitas gracias * * * * * Dziekuje Merci beaucoup Mного Благодаря Obrigado Paldies Ευχαριστώ Tack Thank you very much Dank u Hvala Köszönöm Dekuj Multumesc Dakujem Danke Takk Aitäh Grazzi Kiitos GrazieTesekkur Ederim Dêkuji شُكْرًا http://www.eea.europa.eu http://etc-lusi.eionet.europa.eu

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