1 / 16

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 April 2010. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons. Outline. Highlights

kcartee
Download Presentation

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 April 2010 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • Above-average rainfall was observed over portions of northeastern and southeastern Brazil. The heavy rainfall over Rio de Janeiro during the past week contributed to mudslides and many deaths. • For the next two weeks, the GFS predicts below-average rainfall for most of Brazil. Near-to slightly below-average rainfall is predicted over Rio de Janeiro.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, above-average rainfall was observed over Ecuador, northern Peru, southern Colombia, the northern Amazon basin, portions of northeastern Brazil and along the southeastern Brazil coast, while below-average rainfall was observed over the southern Amazon basin southward across portions of Bolivia, eastern Paraguay, southern Brazil, Uruguay and northeastern Argentina.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days below-average rainfall was observed over portions of northern and northeastern Brazil and the southern Amazon basin southward across Bolivia, southern Brazil and Uruguay (red ovals).

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau CB NB BAHIA RJ • 90-day rainfall totals are below-average over central Brazil (CB) and Northeast Brazil (NB). Deficits of about 100-150 mm. Average rainfall totals were observed over Bahia. • Heavy rainfall was observed over Rio de Janeiro (RJ) during the past week.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies During the last week, equatorial SSTs were at least 1°C above-average across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. SSTs were 0.5°-1.5°C above-average in the equatorial Atlantic. A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • During 3-9 April 2010, anomalous 200-hPa cyclonic circulation (red C) was centered near the coast of southern Brazil. • Anomalous rising motion (negative omega) and above-average rainfall (see slide 4) were observed over portions of southeastern and northeastern Brazil (bottom right panel), on the north flank of the cyclonic circulation. C Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days • During the 7-day period (3-9 April 2010) much below-average temperatures were observed over southeastern South America, while above average temperatures were observed over portions of northeastern Brazil. The average location of a cold front during this period is indicated by the dashed blue line. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 11 April 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 11 April 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (11-17 Apr),below-average rainfall is predicted over a large area of central South America (5S-23S;80-40W). Below average-rainfall is also predicted over southern Brazil. Above-average rainfall is predicted over extreme northwestern South America. • For Days 8-14 (18-24 Apr), below-average rainfall is predicted over most of Brazil, while above-average rainfall is predicted over Colombia, Venezuela and portions of southern Brazil. NOTE: See forecast verification in the next slide.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 28 Mar 2010 Valid 4-10 Apr 2010 Forecast from 4 Apr 2010 Valid 4-10 Apr 2010 Observed 4-10 Apr 2010

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

More Related