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Searching for an Economic Recovery

Board of Directors Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair David Alukonis William H. Dunlap Eric Herr Dianne Mercier Richard Ober James Putnam Stephen J. Reno Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh Michael Whitney Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Todd I. Selig Kimon S. Zachos

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Searching for an Economic Recovery

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  1. Board of Directors Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair David Alukonis William H. Dunlap Eric Herr Dianne Mercier Richard Ober James Putnam Stephen J. Reno Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh Michael Whitney Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Todd I. Selig Kimon S. Zachos Directors Emeritus Searching for an Economic Recovery Lakes Region Planning Commission Monday, September 30, 2013 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

  2. What is New Hampshire Labor Markets Hospital Service Areas Tourist Regions Watersheds Housing Markets

  3. Lakes Region has about 10% of NH residents

  4. If you live in the Lakes Region, you work here.

  5. Lakes Region relies on Manufacturing

  6. Lakes Region also relies on Tourism

  7. Lakes Region is 2nd in % Seasonal Homes

  8. Lakes Region Highest Property Value per Capita

  9. Above NH average Property Crime in Lakes Region

  10. Lakes Region Educational Attainment close to average

  11. Lakes Region Social Need is Above State Average

  12. The Geography of Need • Percentage of the Population with a BA or better • 2010 Median HH Income • Poverty Rate • Households with Food Stamps • Medicaid Members as a % per Pop • Low to Moderate Income Pct • Elementary Per Pupil Expenditures 2009/10 • 2011 Actual Property Tax Rate • Voter Participation (%) in the Last Election • Poverty Under 18 • Poverty 65 plus • 2011 High School graduation rate

  13. Lakes Region Incomes

  14. Lakes Region Wages

  15. Anecdotal evidence from the Fed Bank of Boston, July 17, 2013 • Economic activity in New England continues to expand at a moderate pace, according to business contacts. • Retailers, tourism contacts, manufacturers and consulting and advertising contacts all report modest increases in sales. • Commercial real estate conditions are improving or holding steady, depending on location. • Residential real estate contacts report increases in both house prices and sales. • Overall prices are rising at a modest pace, generally in line with cost increases. • Most businesses are holding employment steady, with substantial staffing changes only at firms experiencing significant increases or decreases in sales. • Contacts generally expect the recent trend of moderate growth to continue.

  16. Calculated Risk has the clearest picture of the problem we face:

  17. NH – Less of a decline, but a slower recovery

  18. Migration slowed in last decade

  19. A Few Thoughts on Demographics = Destiny

  20. Percent Change in NH Population 30.0% 24.8% 25.0% 21.5% 20.5% 20.0% 13.8% 15.0% 11.4% 8.5% 10.0% 6.9% 5.0% 0.0% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Growth in the past driven by high rates of migration. Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data U.S. Census figures released in December show that the 2000s saw the slowest rate of population growth in New Hampshire in six decades. Later this year, the Census Bureau will release specific population figures for counties and communities. What will those numbers tell us about the state’s demographic patterns over the past decade?

  21. NH Population forecasts revised down Total NH Population

  22. NH Population forecasts revised down, especially for 0-19 yr olds NH School Age Population

  23. The new 60? Significant future growth of the population 75 - 79 23

  24. Declining Number of Teens and Twenty Year Olds

  25. And Spending Patterns Change with Age Too.

  26. Younger groups less likely to form a household

  27. Younger groups less likely to be home owners

  28. The increase in the Senior Population in the Lakes

  29. Means a change in age by Ownership

  30. And also a change in rental demand

  31. In this context, what should we invest in? • Human Capital • Economic Creativity • Business Base • Costs of Business? • Infrastructure? • Quality of Life?

  32. NH Rank in Public Policy Indicators

  33. Public Policy Indicators Compared to Neighbor and Competitor States

  34. NH Excels on Current Climate Indicators NH Rank - Top Ten Out of 50 Indicators

  35. But NH Lags on Future Climate Indicators NH Rank - Bottom Ten Out of 50 Indicators

  36. A Full Proof Economic Indicator

  37. New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies Board of Directors Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair David Alukonis William H. Dunlap Eric Herr Dianne Mercier Richard Ober James Putnam Stephen J. Reno Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh Michael Whitney Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Todd I. Selig Kimon S. Zachos Directors Emeritus Want to learn more? • Online: nhpolicy.org • Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy • Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy • Our blog: policyblognh.org • (603) 226-2500 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

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