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ENROLMENT SUMMARY - Key Facts, History and Projections. Presentation to the Partnership Table May 14, 2007. Enrolment – DATA & FORECASTING NOTES. Ministry of Education collects enrolment data from school boards.
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ENROLMENT SUMMARY - Key Facts, History and Projections Presentation to the Partnership Table May 14, 2007
Enrolment – DATA & FORECASTING NOTES • Ministry of Education collects enrolment data from school boards. • ADE (average daily enrolment) used for funding purposes is collected through the financial reporting cycle. • Detailed ADE information includes full-time equivalent counts for various grade groupings – JK/SK, Grades 1 to 3, Grades 4 to 8, Secondary. • ADE is also collected for each individual school. • Other enrolment data collected by the ministry includes: headcount enrolment by individual grades and schools (elementary and secondary); elementary class size reports. • As part of the financial/fiscal planning cycle, school boards submit enrolment projections. • For the 2007-08 planning cycle, school boards submitted a two-year enrolment projection. • Ministry develops internal enrolment projections for its multi-year plan. • School-aged demographic trends and student retention rates are key inputs used to construct ministry's long-term projections. • Internal/Ministry projections supplement the short-term board projections.
Enrolment and Demographics - SUMMARY • Enrolment peaked in 2002-03, has been on the decline through 2006-07 and is projected to decline over the next four years. • Elementary enrolment is declining and secondary enrolment is increasing. • Between 1998-99 and 2002-03, TOTAL ADE grew by almost 50,000 – a cumulative growth of 2.5%. • Between 2002-03 and 2006-07, TOTAL ADE declined by over 50,000 – a cumulative decline of 2.5%. • Over the next four year projection period (2007-08 to 2010-11), TOTAL ADE is projected to decline by about 50,000 – a cumulative decline of 2.6%. • An increasingly large number of boards have been experiencing declining enrolment. • Between 2002-03 and 2006-07, 52 school boards declined; 17 of these 52 schools boards declined by at least 10%. • Between 2007-08 and 2010-11, 56 school boards are projected to decline in enrolment; 15 of these 56 schools boards are projected to decline by at least 10%. • Over the period between 2002-03 and 2010-11, 27 school boards are expected to decline by 15% or more; another 11 boards are expected to decline by 10-15%. • GTA is the only region projected to grow; Northern Ontario will experience the largest decline. • Demographic projections of school-aged population through year 2014 suggest: • Provincial decline is expected to continue; decline in elementary-aged cohort being the primary factor. • GTA, the only growth area in the Province between 2002 and 2006, will be the only area in the province expected to experience any marginal growth. • Northern Ontario will continue to experience the largest decline. • Central, East and South Western Ontario regions are expected to experience declines larger than their current decline. • New demographic projections, based on 2006 Census will be available in fall 2008.
Discussion Questions • What planning do we need to undertake to deal with the projected enrolment changes? • What changes in policy or funding are required? • What changes in school board planning processes are required? • What is working and effective for boards with declining enrolment?