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Economic Outlook Kevin Duncan, Ph.D. Professor and Senior Economist, Healy Center for Business and Economic Studies

Economic Outlook Kevin Duncan, Ph.D. Professor and Senior Economist, Healy Center for Business and Economic Studies. Economic data tells a story of two influences on local economy: Growth in the national economy… Growth in Pueblo’s manufacturing industries.

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Economic Outlook Kevin Duncan, Ph.D. Professor and Senior Economist, Healy Center for Business and Economic Studies

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  1. Economic OutlookKevin Duncan, Ph.D.Professor and Senior Economist,Healy Center for Business and Economic Studies • Economic data tells a story of two influences on local economy: • Growth in the national economy… • Growth in Pueblo’s manufacturing industries. • Poor performance of the Colorado economy… • Loss of jobs in Pueblo retail and service industries. • “Muted recovery” from financial crisis.

  2. National Economy at a GlanceSource: BLS

  3. U.S. Unemployment • 13.5 million unemployed (March 2011) • 7.7 million in December 2007 • 6.3 million unemployed over 27 weeks (1.2 million in 2007)

  4. Leeds Business Confidence IndexSurvey of Colorado Business Leaders

  5. Colorado State Monthly Employment

  6. Unemployment Rates for Colorado and Surrounding States

  7. Pueblo County Employment

  8. Pueblo Employment Growth is UnevenSource: BLS

  9. Unemployment Rates for Surrounding Counties (Source: CDLE)

  10. Pueblo County Sales Tax

  11. Is the worst behind us?

  12. Return of the Seasonal Employment Trend?

  13. Pueblo County Unemployment

  14. Initial Claims for UnemploymentInsurance Source: CDLE

  15. Pueblo ForeclosuresSource: DOLA

  16. New Privately Owned Residential Building Permits Source: Census Bureau Less building, fewer loans into Pueblo

  17. Pueblo’s Economic Outlook? • Strengths: Local manufacturing employment and trend in initial claims for unemployment insurance. • Weaknesses: High local unemployment and the local housing market. • Threats: State budget cuts. • CU forecast (December 2010): “Worst is over- maybe”. • Momentum of US economy will lift Colorado and Pueblo. • But, it will take time.

  18. Pueblo Retail Sales

  19. Colorado and Pueblo Unemployment

  20. Pueblo Employment Trends • January, 2011: • Employment = 65,232 • Unemployment Rate = 11.8% • March, 2011: • Employment = 66,413 • Unemployment Rate = 11.2%

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