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Fixing The Broken WBS

Fixing The Broken WBS. Spring 2008. Disclaimer.

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Fixing The Broken WBS

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  1. Fixing The Broken WBS Spring 2008

  2. Disclaimer When concluded that the opinions about to be expressed may be factual and deemed to promote the general advancement of the art and science of project management please feel free to attributethem to your presenter and the esteemed membership of the PMI Kentucky Bluegrass Chapter .Wherein the opinions about to be presented are potentially found to be inaccurate, imprecise, inexact, unfathomable, naive, wrong-headed and generally unacceptablethe presenter assumes no liability, accountability, andresponsibility and offers no Warrantee or means of redress. SWOC PMI denies any knowledge of his existence.

  3. Siblings • Your only purpose in life may be to serve as an example to others. • Sister, Principle 4,300 students • Already know you that which you need... • Yoda

  4. The WBS • The WBS defines the scope of the project and breaks the work down into components that can be scheduled and estimated and easily monitored and controlled. • Simply put, a WBS is a deliverable-oriented hierarchy that defines the work of the project and only the work of the project. PMP: Project Management Professional Study Guide, Deluxe Edition by Kim Heldman

  5. Building A House House Site Foundation Framing Grounds Walls Roofing Utilities Finish Work • Top Down, rough order of magnitude, budget, parametric, analogous estimating • Bottom Up, definitive, made for individual, small details of the project Layout Permits Excavation Sheeting Shingles Forms Concrete Removal Mud Drywall Electric Water Gas Rough In Rough In Rough In Floor Joist Sub Floors Roof Studs Inspection Inspection Inspection 1st floor 1st floor 1st floor Finish Work Finish Work Finish Work 2nd Floor 2nd Floor 2nd Floor Cabinets Appliances Furnace Carpets Paint Wall Paper Tile

  6. Numerous Techniques • COCOMO • practices that were commonly used in the 1970s and 1980s • Function Points • Count the user functions, External input & Outputs, User interaction, Files, Inquiries • Parametric • Look up tables • Earned Value • Budget versus actual incurred cost • Expert Testimony

  7. Small Issue • “The “Wisped Number” (the one that no one likes to publicly acknowledge) for annual IT waste is around 75 Billion. These are the dollars spent yearly on failed IT projects.”1 • A 2002 Gartner -- 20 percent of all expenditure on IT is wasted global annual value destruction of US $600 billion

  8. Infamous Projects • Hershey Foods 112 $ MM • FBI 170 $ MM • ARM Corp 109 $ MM • EDS UK Child Support £ 1bn • Big Dig .12 cents/$ invested • 10 BB $ over budget 2.6 BB$ budget

  9. Uncommon Failure Modalities?Buy This Report

  10. When Estimates Attack • Testing gets thrown overboard • A paradox is that the practice of developer testing, which is so obviously right and so widely regarded as beneficial, and which could improve software quality and economics more than any other alternative, is still a rarity in software development organizations. • Shipbuilding Sea Trials – Akin to Final Testing (Enterprise, Regression, Final integration in IT) • The Titanic’s Sea Trials were cut to one day in April 1912 • These sea trials did not cover the S-Turn Attrib: Mark Kozak-Holland

  11. IT Geek On A Train

  12. When Estimates Help? Ability To Influence Cost 100% • Intuitively at the beginning! • If everything seems under control, you're not going fast enough - Mario Andretti Conceptual Planning Feasibility Studies Construction Cost Design Architecture Procurement Execution Startup Burn In Operation and Maintenance

  13. Where Do Projects Come From • Every Oak tree starts out as a nut that decides to stands its ground www.ehponline.org

  14. Corporate and Key Asset Governance Other Stakeholders Other Stakeholders Board Other Stakeholders Other Stakeholders Senior Executive Team Desirable Behavior Strategy Key Assets Human Assets Financial Assets Physical Assets IP Assets IT Assets Relationship Assets Brand Management Brand Management Web Governance Governance Chain

  15. The Emergent Project • Do you have a Method • Steps • Formulas • Guidelines • Methods • Procedures • Techniques

  16. Program Architecture Initiate Planning Execution Control Close Program Close Documents Project 1 Program Schedule Program Communication Program Initiation Documents Project 2 Resource Plan Project n Initiate Program Management Plan Plan Execute Other Program Planning Design Build Test Monitor Close

  17. Evolution of a Project Execution Change Management • Initiation • Project Concept • Annual Planning • Business Case • Project Request • Approvals • Planning • Business Requirements • Systems Requirements • WBS • Project Plan • Execution • Construct • Test • Readiness • Deploy • Close – Out • Ready • Deploy • Lesson Learned • Benefits Control

  18. Program Architecture Pre-Launch IDEA Launch Execute Implement Operation • Idea Statement • Project Request • Project Description • Intra-Project Priorities • Stakeholder Analysis • Complexity Assessment • Pol, Procedures standards • Impact Assessment • Constraints & Obstacles • Stability Assessment • Issues Management • Risk Assessment • Prelim Scope Statement • Project Size Estimate • Project Charter • Schedule • Track • Progress Review • Control • Value_to_Business Assessment • Operations Metrics • Current System Retirement • Project Initiation • Project Closure • Project Staging • Project Organization • Task Planning • Prototype Planning • Organization Change Management Plan • Scope Management Plan • Staffing Plan • Communications Plan • Project Notebook • Detail Estimates • Charter • Budget Approval Attrib: Gopal Kumar

  19. Home of the estimate Program Estimations Program Tools, Templates and Standards Organizational Estimates Program Estimates A D C Project 1 B Project 2 Project 3

  20. The Estimation Paradox • The best estimate is available….? • At the end

  21. Typical Solution • Powerful Tools • Under skilled Project Managers, Program Managers • Mounting Afterburners on a Mule • A Fool with a tool….

  22. Relative Merits of Re-Estimation • Program -- Six week cycles seem to retain the value and mitigate the detractions • Project – Weekly • Never, Never Problem Identification Knowledge Work Rules Accuracy Annoy Sponsor Project Drag Scope Creep

  23. Define Your Estimates • Class A • Variance –5% to +10% • Production Team Commitment • Class B • Variance –10% to + 20% • Developed by PM and SME • Class C • Variance -15% to + 25% • Not a commitment, feasibility discussions • Class D • Variance –25% to + 75 % • Order of Magnitude • Basic Chartering • By the same people • Have an estimating Guidbook

  24. “Estimating Guidebook” Thoughts

  25. Which Estimate Are We Working With Anyway? • 230,100 $ Class A • 200,200 $ Class B • 175,300 $ Class C • 250,400 $ Class D www.prongo.com/guess/

  26. Buddhist Thought of the Day? • When I was young and inexperienced, I was young and inexperienced • W • I knew I was going to take the wrong train, so I left early • Yogi • A thing long expected takes the form of the unexpected when at last it comes • Twain • Vitality shows in not only the ability to persist but the ability to start over • F Scott Fitzgeralg • Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future • Neils Bhor

  27. Extracting Estimates • In-expert Experts?

  28. Andy’s Hierarchy: Estimation Surliness Users Self Actualization Increasing Actualization • Actuaries new to the fold after creating a predictive modeling system for underwriting • Presenter’s regrets to Maslow's hierarchy of needs Increasing Surliness

  29. Estimation Bias • In many cases, the expert judgment estimate is produced by team members experienced in the work at hand, but not necessarily experienced in estimating techniques • Bias • Optimistic – Overconfidence • Multiple Sourcing • Pessimistic – Use the word accountable twice • Pad the project not the task • Fanciful – Non numeric (about a week) • formulate a template estimate • Ignoring Numbers – See what we want to see • Devil’s Advocate • Bad Anchor – Slippery slope • Research that first assumption • Groupthink – Fear of unpopularity & foolishness • Separate expert testimony, Structure group: Delpi

  30. Bias Fix • Awareness • Accuracy Feedback • Parameterize – Rules of thumb • Culture of challenge • More than one method • Importance

  31. TacticalWhat To Do With “ IDAKNOW” Project Start Analyze Design Build • Prototyping (within the project) is an important program tool Implement Use Evolve Requirements Reuse (Rules of Thumb) Trawl For Knowledge Prototype Requirements Estimate Take Stock Progressive Elaboration Write the Specification

  32. 50 % Done! • In a Marathon, the mid point is not ½ way to the finish

  33. 75 % Done • Didn’t check on progress

  34. Fear Factor: % Complete % Complete = Fantasy Fantasy % Complete = Fantasy Lie % Complete = Desire Propaganda

  35. Predecessor Conundrum • (FS) Finish To Start • (SS) Start To Start • (FF) Finish to Finish • (SF) Start To Finish

  36. Linear Progress • Progress in painting

  37. Knowledge work • We have learned something, unpleasant?

  38. Boiling Frog • If your going 100 MPH to Cleveland with an hour to go will you get there on time ? • A frog will leap from a pan of hot water, but if the water is brought to a slow boil, the frog will remain until its demise.

  39. Jump Out • Production is not the application of tools to materials, but logic to work” • Drucker • “It's no delay to stop to edge the tool” • Irish Proverb

  40. WBS Web Locator Project

  41. WBS Dictionary Web Locator Project Candidate Fields (PMBOK) • Code of accounts identifier, describe the work, responsible party, milestones • Contract information, Quality requirements, Technical references

  42. Paste-able Dictionary

  43. PMBOK Several WBS Approaches • Major deliverables and subprojects   • First level of decomposition is major deliverables • Opening a new store, location, store build-out, furnishings, product, etc • Subproject executed outside the project team   • Subprojects • Build a highway subprojects: demolition, design, bridgework, and paving. • Subprojects managers will develop a WBS • Project phases   • Project phases • Project initiation, planning, design, build, inspection, and turnover • A feasibility study might be a deliverable under the project initiation phase, blueprints might be a deliverable under the planning phase • Combination approach   • Some or all of the methods

  44. Decomposition • Level One. The project or contract name • Level Two. Major subsystems of the project, complete entities, or phases of the project are at this level. • Databases, Portal Pages, E-Directory setup, Interfaces • Level Three. Subdivisions of Subsystems • RMAN Backup, Table Design, RAC, Upgrade • Level Four. Decomposed into several more discrete entities until the desired level of detail is achieved. • ERDs, DDL, Instance Maps • Level Five. The work package. Identifiable with a person, a job, or a budget number, the actual project work. • Product Dimension Table, Store Dimension Table

  45. PMBOK, decomposition is a five-step process • Identifying all the major project deliverables and related work. • Organize the work of the project and determine the WBS structure. • Decomposing the WBS levels into lower-level components. • Tangible • Verifiable terms • Assigned to a unit responsible • Assign identification codes • Verification • Clear and complete • Absolutely necessary • Sufficient enough to describe the work

  46. Level 5 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 6 Level 1 Project Or Contract 1 Subsystem 1.1 Subsystem 2 1.2 Subsystem 3 1.3 Subsystem4 1.4 Task 1.2.1 Task 2 1.2.2 Subtask 1.2.1.1 Subtask 2 1.2.1.2 Work Package 1.2.1..2.1 Work Package 2 1.2.1.2.2 Components 1.2.1.2.2.1

  47. Lucky 7? • 7 (+/- 2) • The experimental psychologist George Miller found that "The Magic Number 7, Plus or Minus 2" described the maximum quantity of ideas, facts, or issues that people are able to actively attend to at any one time. • WBS Design Limitation? • Probably not, the estimators ability to scan the page is the primary factor • Do not overload user • Group and structure information • Test designs • Balanced “Rule of Seven” ~ 16,000 boxes at level 6, ¾ MM Hours It’s not wise to violate rules until you know how to observe them. -- T.S. Eliot

  48. Functional Organization Chief Project Coordination • The Functional Manager as PM Functional Manager Functional Manager Functional Manager Staff Staff Staff Staff Staff Staff Staff Staff Staff

  49. Project Organization Chief Project Coordination • The PM as Line Manager Project Manager Project Manager Project Manager Staff Staff Staff Staff Staff Staff Staff Staff Staff

  50. Strong Matrix Organization Chief • The PM as hand of the PMO, A project manager is primarily responsible for the project. Functional managers provide technical expertise and assign resources on an as-needed basis. Because project resources are assigned as necessary there can be conflicts between the project manager and the functional manager over resource assignment. The functional manager has to staff multiple projects with the same experts. Functional Manager Functional Manager PM Manager Staff Staff PM Project Coordination Staff Staff PM Staff Staff PM

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