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COSMO General Meeting 2007 WG5 Parallel Session 18 September 2007

WG5-Report from Switzerland: Verification of COSMO in the year 2007 Francis Schubiger, Pirmin Kaufmann, Christophe Hug, Emanuele Zala, Guy de Morsier, Daniel Leuenberger MeteoSwiss. COSMO General Meeting 2007 WG5 Parallel Session 18 September 2007. COSMO: Verification packages.

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COSMO General Meeting 2007 WG5 Parallel Session 18 September 2007

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  1. WG5-Report from Switzerland:Verification of COSMO in the year 2007Francis Schubiger, Pirmin Kaufmann, Christophe Hug, Emanuele Zala, Guy de Morsier, Daniel LeuenbergerMeteoSwiss COSMO General Meeting 2007 WG5 Parallel Session 18 September 2007

  2. COSMO: Verification packages • Surfaceover Switzerland(1h-steps, ANETZ) • T2m, Td2m, 10m wind, cloud cover and precipitation • Surface (3h-steps, SYNOP) • psred, ps, T2m, Td2m, 10m-wind, cloud cover and precipitation • Upper-air(TEMP) • T, F, RH, wind • integrated water vapor content with GPS data • Precipitation with RADAR • weather-type dependant verification with RADAR and TEMP • Fluxes at Payerne • Windprofiler Payerne and Kloten • VAD (locations of swiss radars)

  3. Verification of surface weather parameters WP 5.1.1 and WP 5.1.7 • verification of COSMO surface weather parameters with SYNOP stations (every 3h) and with ANETZ (every 1h) • operational, ongoing as in 2006 • extension to compute diurnal cycle in 3h-steps with SYNOP data • results sent to the COSMO website spring 2007 summer 2007 2m-temperature: mean error -> exaggerated diurnal amplitude and too high max in Spring 2007

  4. 2m-temperature Spring 2007SYNOP stations mean error SYNOP & COSMO-7

  5. 2m-temperature Spring 2007Switzerland (ANETZ) gridpoints < 800m increasing bias with lead time

  6. Summary / main results in 2007 • 2m-temperature: • in Spring exaggerated amplitude, too high max • precipitation: • extreme high positive bias at the borders of the model (N and E) since Autumn 2006

  7. Dependency of lead-time for COSMO-222.06.07-09.07.07: 8 daily fcst up to +69h standard deviation of errors at SYNOP-locations 2m-temperature 2m-dewpoint +3 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +69 +3 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +69

  8. Dependency of lead-time for COSMO-222.06.07-09.07.07: 8 daily fcst up to +69h standard deviation of errors at SYNOP-locations pressure msl pressure +3 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +69 +3 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +69

  9. Dependency of lead-time for COSMO-222.06.07-09.07.07: 8 daily fcst up to +69h standard deviation of errors at SYNOP-locations 10m-wind direction 10m-windspeed +3 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +69 +3 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +69

  10. Dependency of lead-time for COSMO-222.06.07-09.07.07: 8 daily fcst up to +69h standard deviation of errors at SYNOP-locations cloud cover precipitation +3 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +69 +3 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +69

  11. Verification of test chains in 2007:main results • Runge-Kuttta shows a positive impact on temperature, wind and humidity in the atmosphere and for precipitation (reduction of the overestimation) • Forecasts with newest BC from IFS (i.e. from 00 UTC instead of 18 UTC) shows some improvements but not as much as expected from an earlier testchain with also a later assmilation cycle with newest BC • 6.6 km version (0.6 deg instead of 0.625 deg) gives very similar results

  12. Runge Kutta testchain:verification with SYNOP: pressure Period: 10-23.01.2006 opr RK opr RK

  13. Runge Kutta testchain:verification with SYNOP: precipitation Period: 10-23.01.2006 operational

  14. Runge Kutta testchain:verification with SYNOP: precipitation Period: 10-23.01.2006 Runge Kutta reduction of precipitation overestimation, due to much less high amounts (10 mm/12h)

  15. Runge Kutta testchain:verification with TEMP: temperature 4 periods: 10-23.01.2006 15-28.05.2006 15-28.11.2006 02-15.08.2007 Runge Kuttaoperational

  16. Runge Kutta testchain:verification with TEMP: windspeed 4 periods: 10-23.01.2006 15-28.05.2006 15-28.11.2006 02-15.08.2007 Runge Kuttaoperational

  17. Testchain new soil modelverification with TEMP: geopotential Period: 1-31.12.2005 much better results due to newest BC in assimilation cycle and forecasts ? new soil modeloperational

  18. Testchain newest BC in forecastverification with TEMP: geopotential period: 17-31.03.2007 newest BC = IFS BC from fcst of 00 UTC instead of 18 UTC newest BCoperational

  19. Testchain newest BC in forecastverification with TEMP: geopotential period: 09-23.06.2007 newest BC = IFS BC from fcst of 00 UTC instead of 18 UTC newest BCoperational

  20. Exchange of maps at the COSMO website WP 5.1.6new in 2007: charts on the common same area

  21. 24h-precipitation 06.09.07 00 UTC: +6..+30hCOSMO-DE [DWD]

  22. 24h-precipitation 06.09.07 00 UTC: +6..+30hCOSMO-7 [MeteoSwiss]

  23. 24h-precipitation 06.09.07 00 UTC: +6..+30hCOSMO-PL [IMGW]

  24. 24h-precipitation 06.09.07 00 UTC: +6..+30hCOSMO-I7 [ARPA-SIM]

  25. 24h-precipitation 06.09.07 00 UTC: +6..+30hCOSMO-ME [CNMCA]

  26. 2m-temperature errors (DMO & kalman) vs obsDavos April 2006 – March 2007 +0 .. +24h cases with snow in model +24 .. +48h COSMO-7 blue dots : DMO green dots: kalman +48 .. +72h Vanessa Stauch Project OptiControl

  27. 2m-temperature errors vs obsDavos April 2006 – March 2007 only cases with snow in model +0 .. +24h +24 .. +48h blue dots : DMO green dots: kalman +48 .. +72h Vanessa Stauch Project OptiControl

  28. Probability density function2m-temperature Davos April 06 – March 07 blue dots : DMO green dots: kalman Vanessa Stauch Project OptiControl

  29. Subjective verification of COSMO-7 vs COSMO-2 by the forecasters of the three MeteoSwiss forecasting centres in Spring 2007

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