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1. HQ Level 1 Science Requirements high level document -- Jun/2001 time frame

1. HQ Level 1 Science Requirements high level document -- Jun/2001 time frame 2. GPM Science Implementation Plan detailed document -- Aug/2001 1 st iteration Feb/2002 2 nd iteration 9 study groups at work 1. climate diagnostic 2. weather-climate prediction & data assimilation

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1. HQ Level 1 Science Requirements high level document -- Jun/2001 time frame

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  1. 1. HQ Level 1 Science Requirements high level document -- Jun/2001 time frame 2. GPM Science Implementation Plan detailed document -- Aug/2001 1st iteration Feb/2002 2nd iteration 9 study groups at work 1. climate diagnostic 2. weather-climate prediction & data assimilation 3. radiometer synthesis (deployment & retrieval) 4. radar synthesis (retrieval & combined algorithms) 5. validation requirements & supporting field campaigns 6. GWC, hydrometeorology, land surface processes, carbon budget 7. marine boundary layer & ocean fluxes 8. cloud-radiation modeling and cloud microphysics 9. outreach

  2. GPM’s Key Science Theme Global Water & Energy Cycle • GOAL: Observe, understand, & model Earth system to learn how it is changing, & consequences for life on Earth. • SOLUTION: Establish existence (or absence) of trend in rate of global water cycle -- acceleration would lead to faster evaporation, increased global average precipitation, & general increase in extremes, particularly droughts & floods. GPM will extend TRMM’s observations of rainfall rates to higher latitudes thus yielding more complete and accurate representation of global water cycle. Advanced rainfall measurement core satellite will make detailed & accurate estimates of precipitation structure & microphysical properties -- while constellation of drone satellites flying passive microwave radiometers will provide required temporal sampling of highly variable precipitation systems. Uncertainty in global tropical rainfall estimates has been reduced from 50% to 25% using TRMM data

  3. NASA ESE Strategy for Earth System Science Forces Acting on Earth System Earth System Response Impacts How is Earth changing & what are consequences for life on Earth ? 1. How is global Earth system changing ? 2. What are primary causes of change of Earth system ? 3. How does Earth system respond to natural & human-induced changes ? 4. What are consequences of change in Earth system for human civilization ? 5. How well can future changes in Earth system be predicted ? Climate Feedback

  4. (1) Climate Diagnostics: refining & extending precipitation climatologies including snow climatologies; detecting statistically significant global & regional precipitation trends (2) Global Water & Energy Cycle / Hydrological Predictability: global water & energy cycle (GWEC) analysis & modeling; water transports; water budget closure; hydrometeorological modeling; fresh water resources prediction (3)Climate Change/ Climate Predictability: climate-water-radiation states; climate-change analysis & prediction; GWEC response to climate change & feedback; (4) Data Assimilation / Weather & Storms Predictability: rainfall data assimilation; global-regional scale NWP techniques (5) MBL Processes: air-sea interface processes & surface flux modeling; ocean mixed layer salinity changes (6) Land Processes: land-atmosphere interface processes & surface flux modeling; integrated surface radiation-energy-water-carbon budget process modeling (7) Coupled Cloud-Radiation Models: diagnosis of cloud dynamics, macrophysical/microphysical processes, & response of 3D radiation field; parameterizing microphysics & radiative transfer in nonhydrostatic mesoscale cloud resolving models (8) Retrieval/Validation/Synthesis: physical retrieval of precipitation & latent heating; algorithm calibration & products normalization; algorithm validation & quantification of uncertainty; synthesis of validation for algorithm improvement (9) Applications/Outreach: weather forecasting; flash flood forecasting; news media products; educational tools GPM’s Nine (9) Science Discipline Areas Atmosphere Weather, Climate, & Hydrology Water Land

  5. OBJECTIVE: Understand Horizontal & Vertical Structure of Rainfall & Its Microphysical Nature. Train & Calibrate Algorithms for Constellation Radiometers. OBJECTIVE: Provide Sufficient Sampling to Reduce Uncertainty in Short-term Rainfall Accumulations. Extend Scientific and Societal Applications. GPM Reference Concept • Constellation Satellites • Dedicated Small or Pre-existing Experimental & Operational Satellites with PMW Radiometers • Revisit Time • 3-Hour goal • Sun-Synchronous Polar Orbits • ~600 km Altitude • Core Satellite • TRMM-Like S/C, NASA • H2A Launch, NASDA • Non-Sun Synchronous Orbit • ~ 65° Inclination • ~450 km Altitude • Dual Frequency Radar, NASDA • Ku & Ka Bands • ~ 4 km Horizontal Resolution • ~250 m Vertical Resolution • Multifrequency Radiometer, NASA • 10.7, 19, 22, 37, 85 GHz V&H Pol • Global Precipitation Processing Center • Produces Global Precipitation Data Product Streams Defined by GPM Partners • Precipitation Validation Sites • Selected & Globally Distributed Ground- Based Supersites (polarimetric radar, radiometer, raingages, & disdrometers) & Dense Regional Raingage Networks

  6. TRMM 1-day coverage

  7. Near Term Satellite Data Streams forTRMM/EOSErasfrom Passive Microwave Radiometers & Precipitation Radars[at left are actual (bold) nodal crossing times (DN) or non-sun-synch labels ] ¨ Continuous Geosynchronous Satellite Coverage by GOES E/W, METEOSAT, & GMS Æ 86 90 03 CY 86-05 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 04 05 DMSP F8 F11 F13 F14 SSM/I SSMIS DMSP F16 0530DN DMSP F10 F12 F15 SSM/I SSMIS MSU Æ AMSU-A DMSP F17 0830DN 0830DN NOAA-J NOAA-L NOAA-N 0730DN NOAA-D NOAA-K NOAA-M MSU Æ AMSU-A TRMM (35∞ inc) Potential Gap NSS PR/TMI EOS AQUA 0130DN AMSR-E ADEOS II 1030DN AMSR-J ¨ INSTRUMENTS KEY carries preferred PMW frequencies carries alternate PMW frequencies

  8. Projected Satellite Data Streams for GPM Erafrom Passive Microwave Radiometers & Precipitation Radars[at left are either actual (bold) or orthodox (paren) nodal crossing times (DN or AN) or non-sun-synch labels ] ¨ Continuous Geosynchronous Satellite Coverage by GOES E/W, METEOSAT/MSG, & GMS Æ 03 CY 99-18 99 00 01 02 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 DMSP F14 SSM/I SSMIS CMIS DMSP F16 F18 F20 0530DN NPOESS C3 (0530DN) DMSP F15 SSM/I SSMIS CMIS MSU Æ AMSU-A NOAA-N’ DMSP F17 F19 0830DN NPOESS C1 (0830DN) NOAA-J NOAA-L NOAA-N NPP-ATMS NPOESS LITE-CMIS NPOESS C2 0730DN CMIS MSU Æ AMSU-A NOAA-K NOAA-M TRMM (35∞ inc) Potential Gap PR/TMI DPR/ATMI GPM Core (65∞ inc) Replacement Era NSS EOS AQUA 0130DN AMSR-E N-CMR Replacement Era NASA-GPM I (2330AN) ADEOS II 1030DN GCOM-B1 AMSR-J AMSR-J (1030DN + ?15?) Replacement Era Euro-GPM I E-CMR TBD (0230DN) Euro-GPM II Replacement Era KEY carries preferred PMW frequencies carries alternate PMW frequencies TBD E-CMR (1430AN) Partner-GPM I Replacement Era P-CMR I TBD (1730AN) Partner-GPM II Replacement Era TBD P-CMR II (2030AN) MEGHA-TROPIQUES (20∞ inc) NSS MADRAS FY-3 TBD TBD

  9. TRMM Era Constellation Coverage 3-hour sensor ground trace TRMM + DMSP(F14) + DMSP(F15)

  10. EOS Era Constellation Coverage 3-hour sensor ground trace TRMM + DMSP(F15) + DMSP(F16) + AQUA + ADEOS II

  11. GPM Systematic Measurement Coverage(Core + 6 constellation members) 3-hour sensor ground trace GPM Core + MEGHA-TROP + DMSP(F18) + DMSP(F19) + GCOM-B1 + NASA-GPM I + Euro-GPM I & II + Partner-GPM I & II

  12. TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) Rainfall Intensity Histograms for Tropical Oceans Winter 1997/98 (warm SSTs) Winter 1998/99 (cool SSTs) Winter 1999/00 (cool SSTs) Number of Counts Precip Intensity (mm/h) Precipitation Intensity Category (F.R. Robertson, GHCC)

  13. TRMM-retrieved Radar & Radiometer Rainfall Anomaly Time Series with MSU-retrieved ice index (DCI) (anomalies normalized by annual mean) (F.R. Robertson; GHCC)

  14. Precipitation Prediction: Key Objective of Water Cycle Research NOW State of Art Climate Model GOAL Next Generation Climate Model

  15. Mid-Lat Continental Tropical Continental Tropical Oceanic Extratropical Baroclinic GPM Validation Strategy I. Basic Rainfall Validation ∑ Raingauges/Radars new/existing gauge networks new/existing radar networks Research Quality Data Confidence sanity checks II. GPM Supersites  Basic Rainfall Validation hi-lo res guage/disdrometer networks polarametric Radar system  Accurate Physical Validation scientists & technicians staff data acquisition & computer facility meteorological sensor system upfacing multifreq radiometer system Do/DSD variability/vertical structure convective/stratiform partitioning GPM Satellite Data Streams Continuous Synthesis ∑ error variances ∑ precip trends Calibration Algorithm Improvements Supersite Products III. GPM Field Campaigns  GPM Supersites cloud/ precip/radiation/dynamics processes  GPM Alg Problem/Bias Regions targeted to specific problems FC Data Research ∑ cloud macrophysics ∑ cloud microphysics ∑ cloud-radiation modeling High Latitude Snow

  16. Supersite Template Legend Data Acquisition- Analysis Facility Focused Field Campaigns Polarametric Radar GPM Core Satellite Radar/Radiometer Prototype Instruments Uplooking Radiometer/Radar Meteorological Tower Piloted Site Scientist (3) UAVs Technician (3) DELIVERY Retrieval Error Synthesis Meteorology-Microphysics Aircraft Algorithm Improvement Guidance Validation Research 150 km 5 km 100-Site Hi-Res Domain Center-Displaced with Uplooking Radiometer/Radar System [10.7,19,22,35,85,157 GHz/14,35,95 GHz] Triple Gage Site (3 economy scientific gages) 150 km Single Disdrometer/ Triple Gage Site (1 high quality-Large Aperature/ 2 economy scientific gages) 100-Site Lo-Res Domain Centered on Pol-Radar

  17. Supersite Products & Customers 1.Regional Bias Uncertainties(synthesis/continuous): ∑ climate trend detection specialists 2. Regional Error Variances(synthesis/continuous): ∑ weather/hydrology forecast specialists ∑ model data assimilation specialists ∑ rain data user specialists 3. Algorithm Calibration(synthesis/continuous): ∑ satellite algorithm specialists 4. Rain GV Products(datasets/delayed): ∑ rain data validation researchers

  18. Where can NASA & NASDA Find Common Ground on GPM Mission Objectives? 1. better measurement is achievable -- DPR & ATMI together produce reference & calibration algorithm because of sensitivity to DSD 2. extended (global coverage) addresses global water cycle & enables measurement of snow 3. increased temporal sampling brings in additional science disciplines 4. 4-dimensional precipitation structure & macro/micro physics of clouds can be fully explored 5. use TRMM mini-constellation as launch pad to GPM era constellation

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